07-18-2013 03:40 PM
Yeah, well, anything weatherwise that come out of the CBOT in my eyes would have to be suspect. Don't know what, if any weather maps they are drawing from, but it's not from the American or the European models. They must have their own talking heads weathermen, (ie. they have a weatherman title, and make more money being told what to say and when.)
I love the 9 day forcast. It's a complete revesal from the GFS (American) model. The GFS model shows a high pressure system where these guys show a Low.
Heck - maybe I these guys need to hire me if they want someone who can at least read a weather map.
The rainfall they show through out thee period, again bogus. There are no, let me repeat that, there are no fronts now or in the next 10 days that are going to generate the kind of moisture that they are showing for the corn belt, either eastern or western. And I love the MASSIVE amount of precip that they bring in 14 days from now. That'll put on those ears boys. SELL, SELL, SELL.
With the sales job that we've been getting, someone really wants this market to go down. Some years ago if you remember it was just the reverse of what we are seeing here. The market went up everyday, and the call was - like I am seeing - show me the rain. It hasn't rained for three weeks. The last two weather systems that took the market down produced nothing, and now they print this bogus piece of crap, that I have no idea what, if anything, it was based on. I'll print this out, keep it on my desk, so we can check the scoreboard again during the time periods that they are stating.
OK - let's look at something so you guys have an idea what to sorta watch for. Go to the 36 hr forcast map. Look at ND, SD, NE. Now I want you to look at the isobars. They are the yellow rings around each of the different systems. What they do is connect the points on the map that have the same pressure. On that yellow line, you'll see a number. Like the High pressure system over Colorado. Notice the number 16. It refers to millibars, the metric equivilant of our English system of doing things. A high pressure system is just that, it exerts a higher pressure on the earths surface. 29.92 or 1013 milibars (MB) is considered standard. Notice the High over Colorado is 1016 MB. Now look at that low over Montana, or the one over the panhandle of OK. They only show 12 or 1012 MB, just under the standard pressure. Now look at the Low up north of Maine. That's the one the other day that I said looked impressive. It's show 96, or 960 mb. Notice also it has more rings around it. Each ring is seperated by 4 mb, and remember, these show line of equal pressure around the system. The stronger the systems are, the closer these isobars are together. Notice the whole US and how far apart the isobars are. The stronger the system is, the greater chance that we have of developing the frontal lift that is required to make a thunderstorm.
I'll let you look at that one. And then if I get a chance an see something good I'll try and put some more together for ya'll.
Show me the rain.
07-18-2013 03:54 PM
One more thing. When I taught flying, I also taught private and instrument ground schools at a university system. The instrument rating is a tough rating for a lot of people. It requires a fair amount of study. The instument instructor written test was probably the hardest test I've had in my life. Now there's a test.
07-18-2013 04:55 PM
In 14 days, our dryland row crops will have about 60-75% of their yield potential gone. My irrigated corn, is 7 feet tall, and starting to silk. The dryland in the next field, is only waist high in spots, curling by 10AM, and turning pale. No rain for a week, will do the same for all my dryland. If I have to wait 2 weeks, I doubt it will make 1/4 of a normal crop.
07-18-2013 07:41 PM
07-18-2013 08:17 PM
OK - at least it's a NOAA weather site. What I see. 5 days out from now is when the bulk of that precipitaion is forcast to fall. Forever in forcasting, but I'll take a stab at a 5-7 day forcast. I give my accuracy on this - let's say 20%
5 days from now, that low up on Canada that I've been talking about is still exerting it's presence here in the US. Jet stream is forcast to be in a NW to SE flow - not the most condusive for a lot of rain, especially considering during that time frame a large are of high pressure dominates the weather pattern in the south from the east coast to the west coast. Moisture brought into the system is mainly then brought in to the midwest from the Baha area of CA, and must cross the rockies. I spoke about this earlier, if air is forced over the rockies or higher elevation, it's probably going to loose most of its moisture when the land slopes back down. And, the land mass that the air mass will be spinning around is very, very dry and has been for some time, further modifying the airmass. The jet stream aloft during that time frame is scheduled to be prettly light, like I said mostly a west/northwest by east/southeast flow. It is split into two areas of the jet, one farther north, one farther south. If it were to rain, I would put the rain farther South, Oklahoma area. Nothing Severe, no long areas of weather. Just localized showers again. The air masses are not conducive for a large amount of rain. That low that the jet is feeding into at theat time by the way is forcast to be over Hudson Bay. As I look at the different models more in depth, I come to one conclusion. Will not happen. Show me the rain.
07-18-2013 09:37 PM - edited 07-18-2013 10:12 PM
so it's the cooler air forecast to make it through the belt this weekend - down to 80's and some 70's for highs that the sellers are holding on to..............................not rain.
this will only help respiration, not H2O needs, which are increasing exponentially/day.
07-18-2013 11:48 PM
I do subscribe to Drew Lerner's Canadian service. I find it more accurate than Environment Canada or other free weather services.
I am finding it interesting that the discussion on this forum seems at such odds with the commentary from what someone has called the "talking heads". I'm going to watch very closely how this all plays out. My experience here in Canada is the marketing analysts and even commercial grain buyers and traders are a week to two weeks behind what farmers know is going on. We know how a few days of heat, without moisture, and at the wrong time, can dramatically change the outlook. It seems, here at least, to take about 10 days for reality to set in with the folks who don't have their boots in the dirt.