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09-19-2013 10:14 AM - edited 09-19-2013 01:15 PM
According to the service of rural technical assistance of Rio Grande do Sul, the southern-most state of Brazil, corn will just occupy 158,147 acres in the greater Erechim area (at the map). This means that there will be a shrink of area of more than 10 percent - which is the highest are reduction of corn in 15 years. Overall, the state will reduce in three perecent its area for the cereal. Erechim is one of the main municipalities which produces corn in Rio Grande do Sul.
Isn't that huge?
09-19-2013 11:15 AM
No doubt about it. $4.00 for a bushel of corn (56 lbs) provides minimal profit in the US and less if transport costs are higher as is the case in Brazil.... Corn price will likely be higher in 6 months...
09-19-2013 11:21 AM
Bin, Lock, go on vacation. It's got nothing to do with screwing the end users. It has to do with selling corn for $4.00 now that at least has the potential for a nice rally into the spring. Unless, of course because you need to get rid of some light weight stuff that may not store real well.
09-19-2013 11:27 AM
constant wet blanket but no it isn't huge.
it amounts to a half a drop.
Brazil doesn't contribuet much export corn to start with one atea down 10% isn't /
endless, all ars of US corn are reporting small kerbals etc? jess?
Simply false ECb gas teh best crio in years, many areas will see RECORD yeilds.
PA is a small producer relative but will see yields at 112% of trend.
OH and more southern states similaar.
The good and the bad, the mkt is trying to judge teh NET.
Not easy but this is NOT a wone way train, SX clsoe to making fresh munti week lows,
says something. eH?
09-19-2013 11:42 AM
Like you said pritchh, it is the total. ECB, south is good. No one's denying that. But some of the major corn growing areas have problems, they have all summer and have been minimized by this trade, to the point of making believe that there are no problems, and you guys simply say the say things over and over and over. We get the fact that there are good areas in the East and South. Do you get what we are saying about the rest?
09-19-2013 11:46 AM
And SX selling off to multi week lows, in the light of the dollar going down massively and the good exports that we have had DOES tell me something. It tells me the market is being manipulated by those that have more money than I, and maybe we farmers need to come up with a new market system. Until we do, the next best thing we can do right now is BIN - LOCK, and go on vacation.
09-19-2013 11:53 AM
Wait a minute here...........It seems to me that all we heard from the bears is that Brazil was going to continue to ramp up their corn acres that would directly compete with U.S. corn. Who would've thought they would actually lower production with lower prices? Could the U.S. corn acres see the same fate?
09-19-2013 11:58 AM
Just more smoke and mirrors. Lies and deceptions. I haven't heard about Maryland's huge crops for awhile, gee I would really like to know how huge that is. And while you're there, how about adding in Rhode Island - no reason to forget about them.
09-19-2013 12:46 PM
Jen these bears are like the old maid that pee'd in the sea and said every little bit helps.
The tide came in and she just knew she'd done it.
Kind of like all the trade is fixated with all the little spider monkeys and the 800 # gorilla in the room hasn't moved... YET. The north central part of Iowa, Southern Minn, Wisc, and almost ALL of the dryland west of HWY 81 in Nebraska, and 281 in Kansas had a heart attack this year.
So what if the east and south fringe states raise a few million more bushels than normal, BIG WHOOP. Remember it is ONLY the 5 to 18% over average or normal that counts NOT the whole amount. Think I'll pay attention to the 800# gorilla.
Fact of the matter is many "growers" have to sell to meet their cash rent, living, machinery pmt(s), taxes, etc. they will have to sell no matter the price. They don't own their future or any locks. They are the low hanging fruit that is about to be picked.
Now many of us old time farmers have been through this multiple times and put away and paid down/off in the last 7 years of good times and have the resources to stay in the game a little longer. Sooner or later (this ain't the year) we are bound to raise one of those blow your doors off crops and then there will be a blood letting. With the average age of the farmers in the USA sneaking up on 60 years old there is change in the air.
You are letting your blood pressure build up to the red line area ... time for a "clill pill" and a deep breath. It will work out.
Many are playing a shell game... show me the pea.