02-05-2013 11:21 PM
We don't normally think of the CBO as forecasting grain prices, but they do and here are some results.
For the 2013 cropping year, the Congressional Budget Office is projecting planted acreage at - corn 97.0 mil., soybeans 77.0 mil., and wheat 57.0 mil. The CBO yield forecast for 2013 is - corn 161.5, soy 43.5, wheat 45.5 bu/a. CBO’s forecast for ending stocks (Aug 2014) is - corn 1.852 bil, soy 281 mil, wheat 744 mil bu. CBO’s Projections for season average prices is - corn $4.51, soy $11.00, wheat $7.05."
Those prices will be eye openers and likely cause some consternation if they come to pass.
Are you betting on those kinds of projections for your marketing?
02-06-2013 12:55 AM
Really, WOW - are you trying to get all these guys riled up again.?
Don't think it or the USDA Feb projections will affect too much farmer mktg or mkt behavior. Farmers correct me if i'm out of line here!............another example of very few actual real world variables being considered.
most disheartening, is that tax $$ are spent for this. Wonder how many hrs the CBO billed for their hard work???
02-06-2013 07:23 AM
You've missed the point on this one.
The CBO isn't concerned with the size of the crop nor are the worried about the yield. Heck they really don't care about the price either.
Their whole issue is that they can project what the cost of food will be next year for Government food programs.
So they get together with Moe and Curly over at USDA and ask hows things goin?
OK but we got this trend line problem.
Bob at the CBO says you mena I can't use that number this year? I am really in a bad spot here over how bad I botched that Health care cost thingy. You guys gotta help me or I am outa job.
MOE: Naw you can use it, in fact if you use it we can then use you as a source to give validity to our trend number. Our Butts are in a sling to we really botched that whole thing last year and our insurance payouts were outa this world. So if you could verify our numbers we will verify yours.
Bob: I dunno, I need to project out food costs for the USDA food programs.
Larry says Hey thats OK I am in charge of USDA Surveys so I will back ya up.
Bob well great then I can plug that corn number in because you two experts say it will be this way.
Moe pauses for a minute and says now your an actuarial accountant right?
bob says Yes?
Larry says so you know about algorithms and weighted averages right?
Bob says Oh yea I wrote my doctoral thesis on the number of stars with blue martians and the weighted averages of their height.
Moe says Great then we can use you as an expert to verify the quality of our work and it's accuracy.
Oh sure bob says.
Now comes in senator dried up and wrinkly who asks Larry, Moe and Bob the most important question.
Dried up and Wrinkly says in his softest southern slur, Are we gonna be able to keep those food stamps and school lunch programs running next year?
Larry, Moe and Bob all say unequivocally Yes Sir.
How is that possible? Asks sun baked senator?
Bob says because These fine upstanding gentleman from USDA have assured me that We are gonna return to trend line yields.
Larry n Moe say and that is a fact senator!
Bob here who is a PHD in actuarial accounting even verified our methodology to assure the most accurate results.
well that sounds real good sirs and BTW there larry and Moe. I think I can stall those oversight meetings on your big shindig over there that cost the Government so much money. Your agency won't receive any funding cuts.
Back at senator Sun dried s campaign headquarters he has his secretary write a press release that states" Due to the senators leadership he has been able to ensure that young people across the country will be able to keep their food assistance as we see no need to increase our budget for the price of food as it will stay the same according to USDA and the CBO.
Please vote for the good senator!
And that my friends is the DC circle jerk!
I would rather use the FUKashima reactor problems for the basis of my marketing over these CBO geniuses
02-06-2013 07:45 AM
That says a few things--------------- Not only production, CBO is predicting demand and usage. ---------- might as well cut the budget and scrap USDA, since CBO won't even use their numbers.
Also first thought------- CBO must see(and I agree) world production jumping in more places than Brazil.
And best of all--------- it is official-----by interpretation------- the CBO says drought will end. Maybe we need a Department of Federal Statistical Oversight.