03-16-2013 07:41 AM
I realize that this is mainly a grain marketing site. The last few weeks the cattle market has had alot of down days. Aug FC futures hit a high of 164, and now are in the 148 neighborhood. Anyone care to give their take on t eh market..
03-16-2013 08:02 AM
there is a couple of reasons.
!. The traders ran the price down on the news of the cargill plant closing as somehow they saw this as bearish.
2. Americans are outa money.
3. Our trading partners are outa money. South Korea is afraid of a shootin war with the North so they are hunkering down
4. Lots of dairy cattle still going to slaughter that pace will continue for another 6 weeks or so till new grass and hay are available.
5. Mild winter has kept gains high and with daily averages for gain.
I do think we can retest the highs if Gas gets back to 2.99 until then we hold about 1.45 to 1.50
Also still lots of pork and chicken. Beef is becoming a luxury and it will stay there.
Like the cattle fax guys said in tampa " we've had record high prices for the cow calf guy, but all the extra money has been used to buy hay." THis thing is far from over.
I talked to 2 beef guys this week that are just bleeding red. Cattle lots are nearly full with a good winter and they have sold very few pens that made a profit.
03-16-2013 09:11 AM - edited 03-16-2013 09:12 AM
On the feeder cattle side, Elaine Kub said there`s such light numbers available that it wasn`t worth cattle feeders taking the time to gather up a few here and a few there, just not enough supply to get buyer`s interest going. With packers it`s probably somewhat the same if they have to operate at below capacity, they aren`t as efficient and that`s reflected in their bids.
Also with meat inspector lay-offs looming because a certain political party that starts with a "D" wants to convince the public that sequester spending cuts are horrible, isn`t helping.
03-16-2013 11:10 AM
JR---GDP is record, incomes are record--people have money.
beef became more expensive than in prior yrs, LC do hit a demand curve and less would be
consumed. price adjusts.
the greatewr teh RED inck the greater cows/feeders become buy.
depressed feedlost is bullish not bearish...
hopefully LC drop another 5-8 and feeders 10-12,and the secular bull mkt reaserts.