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Frequent Contributor
ND Farmer 1
Posts: 34
Registered: ‎09-26-2011
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Cattle Market

I realize that this is mainly a grain marketing site.  The last few weeks the cattle market has had alot of down days. Aug FC futures  hit a high of 164, and now are in the 148 neighborhood. Anyone care to give their take on t eh market.. 

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jrsiajdranch
Posts: 2,117
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Cattle Market

there is a couple of reasons.

!. The traders ran the price down on the news of the cargill plant closing as somehow they saw this as bearish.

2. Americans are outa money.

3. Our trading partners are outa money. South Korea is afraid of a shootin war with the North so they are hunkering down

4. Lots of dairy cattle still going to slaughter that pace will continue for another 6 weeks or so till new grass and hay are available.

5. Mild winter has kept gains high and with daily averages for gain.

I do think we can retest the highs if Gas gets back to 2.99 until then we hold about 1.45 to 1.50

 

Also still lots of pork and chicken. Beef is becoming a luxury and it will stay there.

 

Like the cattle fax guys said in tampa " we've had record high prices for the cow calf guy, but all the extra money has been used to buy hay."  THis thing is far from over.

 

I talked to 2 beef guys this week that are just bleeding red. Cattle lots are nearly full with a good winter and they have sold very few pens that made a profit.

Veteran Advisor
BA Deere
Posts: 7,916
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: Cattle Market

[ Edited ]

On the feeder cattle side, Elaine Kub said there`s such light numbers available that it wasn`t worth cattle feeders taking the time to gather up a few here and a few there, just not enough supply to get buyer`s interest going.  With packers it`s probably somewhat the same if they have to operate at below capacity, they aren`t as efficient and that`s reflected in their bids.

 

Also with meat inspector lay-offs looming because a certain political party that starts with a "D" wants to convince the public that sequester spending cuts are horrible, isn`t helping.

Senior Contributor
pritchh
Posts: 495
Registered: ‎10-18-2010
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Re: Cattle Market

JR---GDP is record, incomes are record--people have money.

beef became more expensive than in prior yrs, LC do hit a demand curve and less would be

consumed.  price adjusts.

 

the greatewr teh RED inck the greater cows/feeders become    buy.

depressed feedlost is    bullish not bearish...

 

hopefully LC drop another 5-8 and feeders 10-12,and the secular bull mkt reaserts.

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jrsiajdranch
Posts: 2,117
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Cattle Market

Prichh Record income is only half the story. The other half is record expenses. The income gains haven't kept up with the cost of living. Beef demand will continue to slide.

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c-x-1
Posts: 3,081
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
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Re: Cattle Market

chart-wise Aug feeders could trade to 140 area before finding support.