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05-27-2013 10:00 PM - edited 05-27-2013 10:07 PM
IT IS ABOUT TIME..... And the production side of the dickerin' sessions represented by that chart, has taken some heavy bruises to get to this point......
Hopefully it is time for the talking bears to move to the back seat for a while.
Next time lets hold the bear speculation till we see production. It kind of eats on me when we start braggin' about a crop that isn't even planted yet especially when our pockets are nearly empty.
05-27-2013 10:54 PM
hanktbd from previous thread mighta hit the nail on head - re: commercials... maybe more pain (bruising) eventually translates to more gain for those true to the market--this storm's been brewing for 2-3 years now (no pun intended) with the discord between the pretend world of HOPE and "it's all gonna be back to normal talk" from lips that make their money from a flappin', THE manufactured #'s released AND the ACTUAL reality of these markets--Isn't this why the physical product is referred to as---- THE ACTUAL(S)?????
if the strongs finally do have firm control, IMO it's a good thing overall - to let the blood from the talking heads and experts (and those that heed from them) so a market can discover it's true (fundamental) self again.
05-27-2013 11:32 PM
eventually they will verbally attack the market process as too risky for the economy and call for more governemtal control of the open market "system" for the protection of the consumer. ---------------- what do you think --------------------- Possible ?????
05-28-2013 12:35 AM - edited 05-28-2013 12:37 AM
.......yeah, i'm thinking back to some of the bankrupting moves in other commodities last few yrs---assuming we have one in C OR B OR ALL 3-------------------they did investigate crude oil mkt after it's big move, but i don't think anything was proved to be wrong and that the specs actually had lightened up on longs nearer the top.......no big change in regulations.
silver/gold didn't really change anything---cotton????????
would there be some crying and uprising? YEP...Would anymore govermental control be implemented? probably not.
you tell me..when grain prices hit a NEW NORMAL in the '70's what happened? - I know the charts-'73 wasn't such an anomaly, but a beginning of a new price range.
could the NASS people ALREADY have enough (too much) control? --they may try new tricks with that.
05-28-2013 09:49 PM
What I remember about the price elevation in the 1970's was the costs of production covered it immediately and prices of everything went up. The feds decided to get it under control with high interest. And we were in trouble but for 3 years it was nice.
I was gettin' a degree during the good years(early 70's) and my dad gave me the income on 160 acres of dry land milo as payment for farm work. 160 acres paid all my tuition, room and meals, and some spending money. By the second year (my dad kept his word) I had enough saved on top of the other expenses that I bought a car. Left a job in 76 to farm and by the early 80's I was wishin the price of corn would bo back to $1 so it would take me out because life was just survival through the 80's. And if you survived you were lucky, that's not fun.
Yes we are in a new price range defined by what we can stand. The lower limit is formed by production costs, if the breakeven nationally is $4.50 then somewhere around $4 enough of us start bowing out to cut supply. The upper limit is what I have been concentrating on. Fed policy has been to devalue the dollar to save political tail------------ so---------- s0------------ s0000------where is the upper limit? We just sold $8.20 corn to an ethanol plant--------- and the plant made money------------ maybe just because California doesn't want to live up to its green energy talk, but they made money. What keeps the upper limit from going to $20, especially if the fed devalues the dollar to 30% of what it was a year ago. --------- shouldn't it?
Corn price this last year should have gone up because of short supply but I am afraid it did not go up enough to cover the devalation of currency.
sorry I got carried away.
05-28-2013 10:36 PM
no sw--thanks for your story.
don't know where the upper limits are, but i'm lasered in on my weekly corn chart---------w/ this perfect storm that seems to be brewing-------charts don't lie, i can't say where -----you already know---------we could trade.
do you know when waterlogged just emerged corn is yellow and tough, not green and tender as it should be-----------is it near death or just a temporary dormancy?