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425Cat
Posts: 1,660
Registered: ‎05-14-2010
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Chickens coming home to roost!!

What?  I though exports were dead! What?? The crop is not perfect!! Been interesting to see the media (talking heads) as Jen would call them triying desparately to get this corn price down to 3 bucks all summer long. Almost like a conspiracy between the scouts , the wetherman, USDA etc. The slap back to reality could be stinging. Not that corn is going to 8 bucks or even 7 it aint going to 3.

Shake and Bake Baby!!!

Veteran Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 3,259
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
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Re: Chickens coming home to roost!!

what about da beans cat? how far's this up correction going before downtrend resumes?...you know, the long, drawn out downtrend Ken Smithmier from the Hightower report was talking in May.

 

Here's what he had to say Aug. 6th on corn:

Big Picture Corn Market Favors the Bears

This is an excerpt from today’s Daily Grain Commentary.  Sign up for a free two week trial! 

Farm trackThe big picture of the market continues to lean bearish with nothing for the bulls to gain momentum from in the short term. Bearish private crop forecasts and thoughts that the USDA will increase the US ending stocks estimate above 2 billion bushels no doubt favors the bears. Demand is beginning to build beneath the surface as prices move lower but not in a way that demands a strong price rebound at the moment. With world ending stocks sitting at the highest level in the last 12 years, it’s seems there will be enough corn for everyone and unfortunately, the US is the most expensive as we sit today. The grind lower is likely to continue although strong end user demand is sure to show up around 450 for December corn. Open interest increased by 5,528 on the move lower yesterday.

TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS

Our first downside objective of 455 was hit overnight and a move through this level leaves the 438-435 zone as next chart support. Resistance doesn’t come in until 482 3/4. Rallies continue to be extremely shallow and without a strong catalyst for a rebound, the grind lower could continue. A large sales announcement to Mexico and/or China might be the trigger for a short covering rally although buyers remain hand-to-mouth given the world production outlook. Back-end corn spreads like the Dec 13/March 14 and the July 14/Dec 14 are pushing out (Increased carry) which leans negative for flat price direction. We have long held 455 as a downside objective and a higher close today (reversal) can not be ruled out. Keep in mind; the COT reports show a record spec net short position in corn.

 
 
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jennys_mn
Posts: 1,475
Registered: ‎07-19-2010

Re: Chickens coming home to roost!!

425 Cat - it sure seems that way - don't it. For me, the thing that I continue to keep seeing is the rainfall totals, and how it's been reported to make it seem that every one got the rain that Indiana and Ohio did this year, abundant and timely. That simply was not, and still is not the case. Starting back a month ago talking about all the rain the Iowa was supposed to get. That was where I entered the market because I knew the rain wasn't going to happen. But it didn't matter if it rained or not. That what made me wonder about what was going on. That string of events in my mind is why I questioned the integrity of these markets, and how it was being portrayed to the American Farmer. I have never seen a time when Iowa was forecast to get a bunch of rain that didn't happen that drove the markets lower. It's just not sensical. Then add the heat we had at the time, and I know that Iowa sure could've issued the rain when it was forecast. No - this summers market was concocted in a board room somewhere, with all the glitz to go with it. I'm just sorry I sold out at the lows. I just didn't want to lose more on a concocted market that wasn't responding in a logical way.

Jen
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roarintiger1
Posts: 1,593
Registered: ‎04-29-2011

Re: Chickens coming home to roost!!

Notice how this Ken Smithmier says in referring to our corn market,   "unfortunately, the US is the most expensive as we sit today".

 

That is the mentality that we are dealing with. These guys think that we should be giving the corn away like we did back in the 80's & 90's just so we can export a huge amount.

 

We need to keep our supplies at home and take care of our domestic customers FIRST.

 

I happen to believe that it is a good thing that our corn is the most expensive on the world market.

 

 

 

 

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Senior Contributor
farmer46
Posts: 220
Registered: ‎09-27-2011
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Re: Chickens coming home to roost!!

RT, you are so right.  

Why is being the cheapest, the best option?  I remember the car companies selling the top of the line Suburbans at record profits, which allowed the low priced, no profit cars to be sold. Having a profit is not bad.   But, we may lose market share.  I know the debate well.  Market share at a loss is not the answer.

Frequent Contributor
cornhead64
Posts: 53
Registered: ‎01-13-2011
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Re: Chickens coming home to roost!!

Jen - all this lack of rain can mess with dew points too right ?  Thinking we might miss the first frost or two because of a decent dew point might not be possible for some ?

 

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425Cat
Posts: 1,660
Registered: ‎05-14-2010
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Re: Chickens coming home to roost!!

Cx I'm looking at a huge island bottom on the sx13 chart should test 13 pretty easy
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jennys_mn
Posts: 1,475
Registered: ‎07-19-2010
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Re: Chickens coming home to roost!!

CH64 - it will freeze easier if if is dry that if it is wet. The wet ground seems to also hold additional heat near the surface. Sometimes, it's just enough to keep the corn from freezing, or, at least keep the stalk alive so nutrients can still flow to the cob. A killing frost will black layer the kernels, and it's over.

I had a situation some years ago when we had a frost on Fathers Day. I had cultivated part of a field a couple days earlier, maybe 35 acres, Wen I got back to the farm on Monday that year, I was wondering what had happened to the corn I cultivated. I thought that maybe I had cut off the roots and killed part of the plant. But it was the frost. You could tell it right to the line where I had cultivated. Hence, the wetter, the better if a frost is imminent.

Jen
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Shaggy98
Posts: 4,161
Registered: ‎06-19-2011
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Re: Chickens coming home to roost!!

Jen, I don't think wet soil necessarily holds heat near the surface, it just holds it current temperature longer. Wet soils are the last ones to fall below freezing in the fall and also the last to warm to planting temperatures in the spring.
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jennys_mn
Posts: 1,475
Registered: ‎07-19-2010
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Re: Chickens coming home to roost!!

That's possible Shaggie - the important thing to know is that drier is worse where frost is concerned. If I had irrigation and needed some time for the crop, I would irrigate as a last ditch effort to save the crop.

Jen