Reply
Frequent Contributor
Posts: 35
Registered: ‎01-27-2011
0

China Ag talk

China's Ag Minister is stating that their overall grain crop has the potential to be the 8th consecutive bumper crop.  Also that their grain reserves are sufficient.  I am wondering, like many, is this statement from them just trying to ease the fears of their people about food shortages and also potentially lower the market price for certain commoditites.  How can there be drought damage in the wheat region and always talk of them being short of corn supplies but then they put this out.   They are tough to figure out. 

Advisor
Posts: 1,937
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: China Ag talk

  They are manipulators.  Don't believe a word they "officially" say.

Veteran Contributor
Posts: 110
Registered: ‎05-15-2010
0

Re: China Ag talk

I would use a modifer in front of the word manipulator and that word would be slimy

Veteran Advisor
Posts: 6,101
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: China Ag talk

They are shrewd businesspeople. Calling them names is not going to advance anyone's agenda. If they are saying they have bumper crops and everything is hunky dory, I would hold off on selling anything. They are not stupid people, they know how to manipulate a market and swoop in on price breaks.

 

We should have some Chinese professionals looking after the USA's interests on the national scene.  Or just some professionals of any ethnic background.

Senior Contributor
Posts: 467
Registered: ‎05-14-2010
0

Re: China Ag talk

Head fake on the world grain markets. When needing to purchase large quanties of all grains, why would they announce to the world they had severe shortages and needed to make large purchases to survive? That is like telling the car dealer, after you have totalled out your only vehicle, you will look around as you aren't ready yet to buy.

Veteran Contributor
Posts: 110
Registered: ‎05-15-2010
0

Re: China Ag talk

"Calling them names is not going to advance anyone's agenda."

 

 

Well have you listened to what out spoken people have said on the airwaves about them

 

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oe_64UzVn7E

Frequent Contributor
Posts: 54
Registered: ‎10-17-2010
0

Re: China Ag talk

I watched the video and I heard some name calling, but what struck me was "The Donald" talking trade wars. He said" We don't need China's crap, we need to tax them, tax them big". And it will take China 5 min. to tax our soybeans and they will buy more from SA and our price falls and SA price matches ours and China gets their beans cheaper and Pres? Donald just got manipulated.
Highlighted
Senior Advisor
Posts: 2,569
Registered: ‎05-13-2010

Re: China Ag talk

China will have big reserves in every commodity and even with damage will undoubtedly have the largest wheat crop of any nation in the world. All their other crops will be big. I'll guess they are the largest ag producer on the planet. And they have continued to increase internal subsidies, infrastructure and policies to enourage domestic production.

 

The question is - will the crops be big enough to satisfy their policies - with the exception of soybeans? Internal food inflation is an issue. Certainly they want to accomplish two things - calm internal markets (and  civil unrest) and notify the world that they are not going to crash into global commodity markets - as far as they know - which does help keep a lid on prices.

 

There is enough food in China. But, they also want to maintain high levels of reserves, both to hit back at inflation through domestic sales and to maintain their national security concerns. So far they have done well, given the circumstances.

 

But they will go on the global market to replenish reserves. It's in our interest now that their grain commodity situation remain stable.

Senior Advisor
Posts: 3,228
Registered: ‎04-30-2010
0

Re: China Ag talk

One of my questions about China is what are their alternatives for grains?  The ISU people say China wants to be independent in corn but they are willing to buy soybeans.  The reasons given are that the U.S. is the only major exporter of corn, so if China needs corn it has to come in large part to America.  But, there are several alternative markets for soybeans, meaning that in the short term, China is not so dependent on only one supplier.  Especially a supplier that could impose an embargo if anyone was foolish enough to do that.

Are there more alternatives for soybeans than for corn?  If China couldn't get enough soybeans, could they use palm oil and other oil seeds and feeds easier than they could replace corn?  I don't know.  I'm asking.  If so, that would be another reason to grow their own corn and not be under the U.S. thumb.

I'm told that China has soybean disease problems in many areas.  If that is the case, it might be another reason to import beans and grow corn.

Comments?

Advisor
Posts: 1,937
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: China Ag talk

   I beg your pardon Mr. Steele.  I don't believe I was calling them names like some schoolyard bully may do.  I was merely describing their approach to buying what they need at the lowest possible price.   Manipulating is just an adjective describing their business practice.  Many others do it but China seems to have it perfected.  And yes, just say NO to the Donald.