03-04-2012 11:46 AM
China continues its solid pattern of soybean imports. Internal price of corn has been as high as $10 a bushel. Yet again China is reporting drought in wheat areas. One of these times it will be significant. Will it be this year? If this is the year, or whatever year drought does impact final production of wheat, China will be a huge factor in global wheat trade.
I see Frees-Notis is predicting an early planting season for Midwest corn. Potentially higher yields or a set up for droughty patterns? No telling.
I would guess we are on the verge of weather markets.
03-04-2012 02:48 PM
A day after the planting intentions report, the traders will be back to trading the weather here is the US. Up until that time it's the weather is SA that is being traded. We are already in a weather market.
03-05-2012 10:10 AM
If we have an early planting season, we may have an early pollination window, which might be something to watch even if we do have some droughty weather. Another aspect of an earlier planting season might be adjusting for weeds and bugs - what will hit us that might be a little unusual? Hopefully, we'll be ready for any of it.
One gets some varying guesses on whether La Nina will still be with us this summer, or when it will end. We're going to have to watch platning intentions and actual acres to see how farmers are betting on any flexible acres they might have.
03-06-2012 06:59 AM
china is one of the largest wheat producers. it is grown in diverse regions.
can't remember a yr whne they did not yell driought somewhre.
wheat is frown in semi arid on purpose.
long range forecasts are useless, no reliability.
in gen, idds on early planting is called good.
mostly crops grow see 50 yrs of world stats.t