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01-17-2012 03:46 PM
So, China's still growing -- as is its economy -- but the growth trend is slowly backing off. So, what's that mean to our grain markets? Also, one pretty glaring set of figures: grain production's up quite a bit, but livestock numbers are just slighly higher, with hog numbers dipping into the red. But, at the same time, average annual income was up over 8% in China in 2011, and like a lot of folks say, the first thing somebody has when they have money is meat.
It creates some pretty strong potential volatility in here. So, is China that big of a deal?
01-17-2012 04:28 PM
On sheep, goat and lamb, India sure buys alot.
Thus helps keep the other meat species REAL current.
It could be that China buys some USA pork this year.
USA btw, is the Globe's number 1 meat exporter now.
01-17-2012 04:49 PM
The 'slowing' of China's economy means the grain boom to China continues. Pure and simple.
First, they exceeded projections on growth @ 8.9%. When is the last time the US grew at that rate? That is phenomenal rate.
The idea there is a relationship to current economic dynamics in China and grain demand is pretty much false. Yes, I harp on this but the assumptions continue - so I'll review. This is more or less true in poorer countries as well.
There is huge pent up demand for a better quality of life and as long as growth continues it will result in better diets. That means more imports of feed. AND it is official policy. The revolution in living standards has not been as dramatic in the rural areas where most of the population lives and the central authorities are determined to avoid increasing the gulf between rich and poor as they continue to develop. Partly this is a matter of preserving social stability. Therefore there will be no slacking at all in living standard increases in the area of food.
The massive importation of soybean by China is literally one of the most significant developments in ag history - even going back to ancient Sumeria. It is going on elsewhere as well.
Anyone who thinks that a 'slowing' Chinese economy is going to weaken demand in any significant way is/has not paid attention to what is going on. Let's all hope that our economy 'slows' to 8.9% growth.