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Veteran Advisor
Posts: 2,347
Registered: ‎02-11-2013

Christmas is cancelled

well boys and girls...i think we're going to cancell christmas this year (at least the commerical side).

el grumpo (the former el cheapo) went to the store the other day to pick up some groceries.....and as I went down

the isles, i kept getting more and more unhappy......the following were all more than a bushel of wheat.......

pound of grapes...a couple of heads of lettace, 3 pounds of apples, 3 pounds of oranges, a bag of cranberries,

a gallon of milk, a pound of cheese, box of breakfast ceral, package of generic cream of wheat.....

and the thing that just finally did it........a jar of smucker's, sugar free preserves.....strawberry.

 

my local wheat price is $2.88......that is $1.15 basis....or in other words....basis is 28.5% of my price........

 

took in some milo today, drove by a couple of piles of wheat..i saw some things.....some of the metal grates

that hold the grain, and then they put plastic....the grates had black stuff crawling out.....and the

smell from the fans wasn't the best.........

so, i must pay for their mistakes.........

 

explain to me this........i'm being docked for moisture...yet we are dumping on an open pile that has no cover on it......

 

i noted that one of the speakers at the ag banker conference was "the high road, the low road, or the next exit"......where

are your ag customers at ????

 

i havent got out the adding machine yet, but i think this is going to be one of the worse years we have ever had...........

 

and now.......a little bird is telling me, there are very low odds to have ANY ARC payments next year........so there goes

the tractor payment !!

 

so, i think we'll cancell christmas........yes, i'll still put up the tree......christmas trees with the little lights on them are so pretty.....

i'll sometimes just sit in the living room in the dark with just the christmas tree lights on.........

 

but this year, there will be a change on the lights...........NO RED LIGHTS......i am already seeing enough red in all the outflow

ink.......

 

Veteran Advisor
Posts: 882
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: Christmas is cancelled

El cheapo......it's called personal responsibiity

 

build your own bins, or your own ground pile

 

there is a saying in this business:

 

“You don’t build a church for Easter Sunday”

 

 

Esteemed Advisor
Posts: 2,373
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
0

Re: Christmas is cancelled

It's pretty easy for someone that is not remotely in the business to not understand or criticize.

 

It's also pretty easy to farm with a pencil or a keyboard miles away from an actual farm.

 

 

Advisor
Posts: 2,632
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: Christmas is cancelled

Ray  -  How  Many  Bushels  did  you  harvest   ???????

Advisor
Posts: 646
Registered: ‎10-18-2016

Re: Christmas is cancelled

Tough times create strong feelings.  I'm not a wheat farmer but that business looks to this outsider to be pretty tough this year and it's no wonder people express frustration.

 

I've heard soybean farmers complain that they are told not to add moisture to dry beans but the elevator blends the beans with wet they bought and docked and makes money on both ends.  Corn farmers complain that the elevator buys corn and subtracts a drying charge to 14% and then sells it at 15%.  Nevertheless, the farmer has the ability to operate his own storage facility and sales and can deal with those problems to a great extent.

 

I hope one doesn't deliver good wheat and then have it priced as lower quality because the facility lets it go bad.

 

Ray's comments may have been directed at only one part of El Cheapo's post and may seem a bit direct, but there is value in what he says.  A peson doesn't have to be farmer to know a lot about grain storage, grain purchasing and grain handling.  I'm sure the local elevator knows a lot more than I do about grain handling because they do it every day for a living and I do it just until the crop is gone.

 

This will make some people mad, but I remember back in the late '90's and early part of this century when we had many people posting here like extension people from Iowa State, Kansas State, Ohio State and Illinois.  We had professional traders on often.  They had a lot of useful and interesting information to share but we farmers ran them off by telling they didn't understand, they weren't farmers and so forth.  We're much the poorer it.  A major reason we have a smaller crowd on this site than we used to is we eat up those who either don't agree, don't have a thick skin, or simply find it not worth their while to post an honest observation.

 

I very much hope Ray continues to post here often and wish we could get back some of those we drove off.  I don't agree with all of what Ray says but he has a valuable perspective and one that we farmers have to deal with whether we like it or not.

 

Every one of us has sat down at a keyboard and expressed honest frustration and irritation at the situation we find ourselves in.  It's awful hard to hear something that one can't do anything about but we're going to raise and market another crop next year and all we can do is plug away, learn and get better.

 

I'm glad El Cheapo feels comfortable griping to us and happy that Ray pointed out some things that can be managed in another way.  Now, if someone would just tell me why I'm not a better marketer.  I really don't know how to deal with the year we have coming up in corn and soybeans, and haven't priced a thing for 2017.

 

 

Veteran Advisor
Posts: 2,347
Registered: ‎02-11-2013
0

Re: Christmas is cancelled

What two better reasons to build a church...Christmas and Easter.

What better reasons for an elevator to build
Good storage....less waste, less labor, happy customers......a happy customer is a good customer.
Veteran Advisor
Posts: 2,347
Registered: ‎02-11-2013
0

Re: Christmas is cancelled

Jim, I too wished I was a better market person.
The mistakes Ive made the last few years, I could
Buy a Christmas tree farm.

Looking at the numbers now, I've got to do
Some to lock things now . And have it open
For any price rise. But can not figure out how
To do it easy and economic.
Margins thin now, with prices offered fall of 2017.
I'm trying to do deals on seed, fert and chem.
About only thing...you either contract or get a position, and keep rolling up with puts but that gets expensive e
There are ways such as sell a call to get money for
Put, but that takes someone "in touch" with the market.
There is a new private insurance product offered
By diversified services and ARM insurance, that might
Be interesting. Protects price and rising input costs.
Advisor
Posts: 646
Registered: ‎10-18-2016

Re: Christmas is cancelled

elcheapo, one of my frustrations is that all the ideas people come up with to help me save money, make money, spend money better and so forth seem to work sometimes, and it takes a lot of oversight, as you state.  These ideas always seem to make money for the person pushing them.  I wish they would always make money for me.

Advisor
Posts: 1,376
Registered: ‎06-25-2010
0

Re: Christmas is cancelled

Elcheapo,

I understand your dilemma and any weather disruption can bring the prices sky high .

When you least expect it, expect it!
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Veteran Contributor
Posts: 152
Registered: ‎09-09-2010

Re: Christmas is cancelled

up here in ND wheat has turned into the ugly crop again! For most of the country corn is corn beans are beans and canola is canola but spring wheat is a commodity the grain companies love to discount! The price on the board at the local coop is never the price you get on your check! Last few years nobody had any 14 protien wheat so guess what the discounts were a $1.00 per point for any wheat below 14 pro and most of it was 12, This year most farmers switched to lower yielding but high protien varieties guess what they found vomitoxin and any that had over 5 ppm was discounted a $1.00 a bushel! wheat is being replaced with soybeans but there will always be some wheat! I read aticles by analysts that say contract ahead to protect against  a drop in price at harvest....i say spring wheat is different than corn beans or canola because i never know what game they will pull out of the discount bag next year! 

keep your head up!