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09-26-2013 07:13 AM
What does everybody make of this? Saw a journal article from some researchers who say warming temps -- whether climate change is man-made or not (they don't make any assumptions on that part of the story) -- could increase the frequency and severity of thunderstorms and tornadoes in the eastern U.S., stretching through the Corn Belt. It's interesting research, some of which is way over my head, but others aren't quite as sure about it.
Give it a look and see if you think this dog hunts. Sounds like making any management decisions -- including grain marketing decisions -- on the farm level based on this kind of info isn't a good decision, or so one meteorologist says. But, are things like this in the back of your mind? Really appreciate everybody's 2 cents' worth!
How's everybody faring out in the field? Let's hear your best and worst yield reports, horror stories and tall tales on what you're seeing from the combine cab! And hey, stay safe out there!
09-26-2013 08:27 AM
That's a turgid report. Many acronyms that tend to be obfuscatory.
One could conjecture that big spring rain events may lead to more erosion and flooding. That might affect how much one is willing to bid on land. It might persuade one to change environmental practices, for example, install more terraces, use cover crops, change cropping patterns and so forth on land that is already subject to erosion.
The report spans time frames that look out to the mid century and end of the century. Unless the higher incidence of big rains can be shown to be likely in the near term, one may wonder if many farmers will use this information on a day to day basis.
But, you can bet the USDA and EPA will have this sort of info on file and use it to butress any ideas they come up with.
09-26-2013 09:06 AM
2 words, Jeff "Peak Corn". I don`t see how farmers can do any better managing harsh weather, dreams of gum drops and $8 corn has everything pattern tiled 2 foot on center AquaMax seed corn gives us the best possible yield in a flash drought.
But is the jury really in on the climate actually warming? Last time Miami hit 100º was in 1942, however Miami had 2 snow events one in 1977 and the other in 2010. That would tell me climate is cooling a little.
But for the last 10 years in NCIA many (no all) will agree that it`s much easier to grow 200 bushel corn than 50 bushel beans. Elwynn Taylor once said our August weather around here has a pattern of being hot and dry, not good for beans, but the corn crop is already made. I could see Iowa becoming a continuous corn state.
Everybody talks about the weather, but leave it to the government to make us try and do something about it.
09-26-2013 10:44 AM
Jeff, you are late to the party with this one...........
but you did show up............
but you showed up with a half drank 12 pack of PBR..........
PEAK FREAKING CORN............
Wild weather is not conducive to higher yields on broad acres...........and I gotta feeling wild is an understatement going forward...........
FYI, heard a guy out of MN talk about a year ago..........said from 19XX to 1980-90ish (dont remember all the dates) the frequencey of 2 inch plus rains for a certain area in MN was like 1 or 2 per year.........from 1990ish (again dont remember exact) to today that frequency of 2 inch plus rains was like 10 or 15 per year..........his point was, more intense rainfall events in much much much more concentrated areas............famine or painful feast.............some guy asked a question about buying farmland and if we should be focusing on certain areas to mitigate risk..........answer was, too hard to predict when an where because of extreme volitility in weather moving forward.........
He also made another set of comments regarding night time temps..........if there was a desk up there he would have probably slammed his fist on it..................he basically said if there is one thing they can predict blind folded..........its the uptrend in night time temps during the summer especially..........he saids its like clock work and for now its pacing almost exactly over their regression line...........which makes sense.........I remember 20 years ago if it was 80 degrees at 4AM it was going to be a hot one and it happened like 5 times all summer............heck now days, 80 at night is almost a given for at least 3-4 weeks in the summer............
point is.........buckle up........
09-26-2013 10:50 AM
Are you absolutely certain that turgid,acronyms and obfuscatory are not naughty words. They sound to me like they could be. lol
is harvest fast approaching in your part of the state or have you started?
09-26-2013 03:32 PM
09-26-2013 08:54 PM
Quote from Jeffy - and tall tales on what you're seeing from the combine cab
All I can say is UNbelieveable here on beans - we have 3 carts and 4 semi's TRYING to keep the beans away from a 2166 with a 25 foot head ! And that's on my worse ground -- Hey any you dead beats in Southern IL have any Extra trucks you can send this way ?
Don't know what we will do when we get into the corn .
09-26-2013 11:01 PM
You are going 5 mph on beans? That would be 15 acres / hour and if you were yielding 80 bu/ac that means your trucks take 3 hours to make the roundtrip. Not sure what the need for 3 carts would be, 1 should do it. Even at 80 bu/ac, 1/2 mile rows, still take a round to make the grain tank buzzer go off.