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06-29-2013 10:35 PM
We have a $1.40 positive basis over the sept option for cash corn
We have a $.35 negative basis under dec option for october delivery.
We have a $1 positive basis over august option for cash beans.
We have a $.65 negative basis under the Nov option for fall delivery.
In neither case are the commercials pushing basis to assure delivery at harvest time. So the trade is negative on fall prices as are the cash bidders. What do they know that we don't? Are they betting on ample supplies. So it seems to me.
06-29-2013 10:42 PM
all you know is they are betting on you thinking they are fine until AMPLE suppies are avail.......like that popular poker game Texas hold 'em. some cards seen by all players----the rest are only seen by the holder..................your neg basis on NEW is simply result of mkt being obedient to USDA --betting on the come before it comes...............................
06-30-2013 08:02 AM
Quote from K-T : In neither case are the commercials pushing basis to assure delivery at harvest time. So the trade is negative on fall prices as are the cash bidders. What do they know that we don't? Are they betting on ample supplies. So it seems to me.
One thing here K-T is that it may be more a Transition from old corn to new crop comeing in - as in the New crop will be latter in some areas than most years . that may be why you are seeing the basis you are .
2. The trade don't know something we don't -- they trade the numbers from USDA - Not K-T , DA, Hobby or me -- now look at what them numbers were in this past report -- if you were a trader - would they make you want to go super long ? or just even a little long ? With the numbers put out = NO PROBLEM here .
Now we -- do see the crop every day and see different than they do -- well I do , but it will take time to make ajustments in the areas planted and then the rest of the years weather - around the country .
I havehad cropsthat look just as great as they do today - only to fall to weather problems , nd that could happen again -- odds are better they suck than the grandslam .
But back to your what do they know -- nothing --- but numbers - thats the game , and at this time and date - the numbers are not in our favor . But theres next month -- lol
06-30-2013 11:46 AM
It could be as simple that they are getting their future needs met at current bids. I would think the ethanol plants would want to stoke up on large volumes of $5 corn after dealing with $7 plus corn for a while.