Agriculture News, Markets, Weather, Ag Talk, Farm Machinery | Agriculture.com
Reply
Senior Advisor
kraft-t
Posts: 10,784
Registered: ‎05-10-2010

Commercials aren't worried either

We have a $1.40 positive basis over the sept option for cash corn

We have a $.35 negative basis under dec option for october delivery.

 

We have a $1 positive basis over august option for cash beans.

We have a $.65 negative basis under the Nov option for fall delivery.

 

In neither case are the commercials pushing basis to assure delivery at harvest time. So the trade is negative on fall prices as are the cash bidders. What do they know that we don't? Are they betting on ample supplies. So it seems to me.

Veteran Advisor
Shaggy98
Posts: 4,042
Registered: ‎06-19-2011
0

Re: Commercials aren't worried either

Sounds like it's classic case of pessimist or realist turning optimistic.
Veteran Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 3,231
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
0

Re: Commercials aren't worried either

all you know is they are betting on you thinking they are fine until AMPLE suppies are avail.......like that popular poker game Texas hold 'em. some cards seen by all players----the rest are only seen by the holder..................your neg basis on NEW is simply result of mkt being obedient to USDA --betting on the come before it comes...............................

Advisor
farmerguy89
Posts: 1,121
Registered: ‎06-30-2012
0

Re: Commercials aren't worried either

My soybean bids are 45 over. It's an end user. And my dollars junking it up. All delivered for export.
Advisor
farmerguy89
Posts: 1,121
Registered: ‎06-30-2012
0

Re: Commercials aren't worried either

New crop that is
Esteemed Advisor
sw363535
Posts: 4,575
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
0

Re: Commercials aren't worried either

Looks like grain storage will pay once again.  The last 4 years have been good years for delayed marketing.

sw
Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 3,979
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
0

Re: Commercials aren't worried either

Most years the 4th quarter is not the best time for grain sales.

60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Senior Advisor
ECIN
Posts: 2,047
Registered: ‎10-17-2012
0

Re: Commercials aren't worried either

Quote from K-T : In neither case are the commercials pushing basis to assure delivery at harvest time. So the trade is negative on fall prices as are the cash bidders. What do they know that we don't? Are they betting on ample supplies. So it seems to me.

 

One thing here K-T is that it may be more a Transition from old corn to new crop comeing in - as in the New crop will be latter in some areas than most years . that may be why you are seeing the basis you are .

 

2. The trade don't know something we don't -- they trade the numbers from USDA - Not K-T , DA, Hobby or me -- now look at what them numbers were in this past report -- if you were a trader - would they make you want to go super long ? or just even a little long ? With the numbers put out = NO PROBLEM here .

 

Now we -- do see the crop every day and see different than they do -- well I do , but it will take time to make ajustments in the areas planted and then the rest of the years weather - around the country .

 

I havehad cropsthat look just as great as they do today - only to fall to weather problems , nd that could happen again -- odds are better they suck than the grandslam .

 

But back to your what do they know -- nothing --- but numbers - thats the game , and at this time and date - the numbers are not in our favor . But theres next month -- lol

Senior Advisor
kraft-t
Posts: 10,784
Registered: ‎05-10-2010
0

Re: Commercials aren't worried either

It could be as simple that they are getting their future needs met at current bids. I would think the ethanol plants would want to stoke up on large volumes of $5 corn after dealing with $7 plus corn for a while.

Esteemed Advisor
sw363535
Posts: 4,575
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
0

Re: Commercials aren't worried either

Local ethanol is not bidding for August. Says "on hold". Then new crop bidding sept -oct.
sw