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Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,568
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Complacency in the Markets

[ Edited ]

Does anyone find it a little odd that with a somewhat low grain supply and terrible early season weather, the markets are going lower?

 

I have read most of the bearish reasons for several months, but still find it hard to believe that there aren't some folks getting just a tad bit worried about our nations' grain supply.

 

The ideal planting window continues to close a little more with each passing day,  yet very few people seem to care.

 

Hakuna matada...........

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Advisor
giolucas
Posts: 1,097
Registered: ‎06-25-2010
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Re: Complacency in the Markets

[ Edited ]

Grain Market Prices are extreme swings in prices one way or the other.  All sorts of Traders move this market.  If the farmers controlled the markets we would be just going straight up, all the time.     Also,  as we all know, or do not remember, when everyone is thinking the market should go in one direction, the market will do the opposite.   

Veteran Contributor
Doug N
Posts: 109
Registered: ‎09-22-2011
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Re: Complacency in the Markets

For a large part of the corn belt we have not even entered the ideal planting window yet.  I believe the reason we are not seeing a reaction from traders is because we are not in as tight of a spot as previous 2 years.  We have choked out demand enough to the point that even a mediocre crop will do.  Add to that, basically 0 bushels have been lost so far.  If we get another couple weeks down the road and things don't improve then we will see a reaction.  If we get into Hune and it turns hot and dry then we will get a reaction.

 

History shows we will plant most if not all the intended acres.  We grew a 120 BPA crop last year and it look like we will have enough corn so anything that size or above should get us through again, especially if farmers hold their corn while it gets imported to the coasts.

Senior Advisor
ECIN
Posts: 2,035
Registered: ‎10-17-2012
0

Re: Complacency in the Markets

Quote From gio :  When everyone is thinking the market should go in one direction, the market will do the opposite

 

So gio - are you trying to say that the markets are run by woman ?

Advisor
giolucas
Posts: 1,097
Registered: ‎06-25-2010

Re: Complacency in the Markets

No, a woman would get it right.  The egotistic man is the problem.

Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,568
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
0

Re: Complacency in the Markets

Doug,  Good point.  We have not lost one bushel yet.   But, I would remind you that we haven't raised one bushel yet either...........

 

You can't lose what you never had.

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 3,208
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
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Re: Complacency in the Markets

Doug,

US is tighter than last 2 years........demand's is hidden. 

Senior Advisor
ECIN
Posts: 2,035
Registered: ‎10-17-2012
0

Re: Complacency in the Markets

[ Edited ]

I would say for me , that the old crop is alittle surprising to me ,, As ray J. Has said and said and said -- watch the basis , here At my Bunge bean plant the basis is up to + 90 cents and corn is still + 32 and at Cardinal E. plant is at + 40 to 50 cents . Now IF we had plenty of crops then why are they this high ? There is only two things ,, there's no crop left OR farmers locked the bins , I can see both happening here , but + 90 on beans  ? I would say there just are not many left around here .

 

For almost all this year , the corn held it's own --- on what ? Domestic use !!! Not on exports , So here's my question , I know that the feed lots out west were looking forward to wheat comeing in to feed -- but what now ? OK , TX , KS what is there for the cattle to eat other than feeding them corn now , E plants are makeing good money = more corn gone . Ray J. it eating it up -- as long as he can keep the juice on to the plant  -- corn useage to me has not gone down yet in this country . The big card to play'd will be this summer ! That is when we find out IF there was all this extra corn out there .

 

One other thing -- the USDA has draw the line in the sand on how bu. there is , I cant remeber the  March number , but it will stay the same in next report  - they will just ajust some number to make it work - may be useage - exports , inports - what ever .

 

New crop ?  NO Idea - lol    Bad weather = prices go down --- maybe good weather they go up like gio said , do the opposite .

 

 

 

 

Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 3,953
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
0

Re: Complacency in the Markets

Just remember old and new crop prices will merge sooner or later. This year it may be just a little later. BUT the forecast for here looks like planting weather by May 1.

 

Last year the new crop came UP and met the old crop. Will lightning strike twice? Gotta ask "do you feel lucky?"

 

OLD Ma Nature is doing all she can to throw the whole tool box of Monkey Wrenches at North American production. (some of the same on the other side of the worlds northern hemisphere too) Snow, cold, floods, and oh yea freezes late at each and every crop as it gets to the point of no return.

 

Just need a major volcano to go off north of the equator for the final nail.

 

the cash bids around here are +60 on corn and up to +90 on beans. That is maybe something for the first week of Aug not end of April.

 

I dunno but I am expecting fireworks to follow the game. Just hope I don't/haven't over played my hand.

60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 3,208
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
0

Re: Complacency in the Markets

finally getting some sense--truth back on the thread here about economic reality.

 

thanks.