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Esteemed Advisor
Posts: 2,468
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
0

Corn Acres

It was mentioned on another site that a corn acre survey shared their results that the corn acre number was 91.29 million acres.

 

If true.......that.......wold be a game changer.

 

However, this number would be more in line with what everyone was thinking before the USDA's March wild guess report.   That number, (The wild 93.6 million corn acre guess) put out by the USDA likely cost the American famers millions of dollars by putting a lid on the market.  Of course, the same people that put out that 93.6 number will be putting out another in a couple of days.,,,,,so.......not sure either one will be very accurate.   

 

My question is...........why don't they wait for the FSA and crop insurance numbers and line up with them...,..These numbers are actual certified numbers and not some wild*** guess.

Senior Advisor
Posts: 2,458
Registered: ‎10-17-2012
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Re: Corn Acres

T-1 - My guess is that not all acres are enrolled with the FSA and also crop insurance - just my guess .

Advisor
Posts: 9,135
Registered: ‎02-06-2014
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Re: Corn Acres

This is a report that historically can produce some big moves. I'd recommend against anyone playing report lotto. Or if you do, do it aside from marketing plans via options or a position of a size that you can live with if you're wrong.

 

In accordance with my thesis, this being an election year they may try to moderate away from any bombshells. They want you to be happy, even though that's a fool's errand.

 

I'm guessing more total acres as PP probably fell under the default assumption and I hear a lot of acres got planted in the N. Plains.

 

Granted, this type of info hasn't served me that well over the years but seed dealers tell me that they didn't see the amount of switching to beans that I thought should happen given later planting and a very strong market incentive to do so.

 

My take- farmers for the most part probably still have enough operating money and generally feel that corn has more upside for yield compensation in a good year.

 

I'm hearing big SRWW yields and as the harvest moves north quality should be pretty good. Decline in spring wheat conditions may give a pause but the market probably needs to get 100MB bushels or wheat or more fed. Globally, corn still has a wheat problem and corn typically doesn't have big, non-weather bulls until wheat stocks moderate.

 

Taking the long view and assuming nothing too dramatic this year I'd prefer to not see a repeat of 2014's 3+ million boost in bean acres. Into next year, as long as world bean stocks remain tight it will probably help everything.

 

 

Esteemed Advisor
Posts: 2,468
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: Corn Acres

ECIN, They know from the last sign up exactly what the total acres are that are in the program.   Historically, the percentage of acres not in the program will not change very much......if at all.    It's not rocket science.

 

My point is, why have this report in March?   Wait and see what the acres actually are and go from there.   

Honored Advisor
Posts: 5,244
Registered: ‎01-10-2012

Re: Corn Acres

Large remnant of the cheap food doctrine.

Esteemed Advisor
Posts: 2,468
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
0

Re: Corn Acres

That's what I'm geting at.   Smiley Wink

Advisor
Posts: 9,135
Registered: ‎02-06-2014
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Re: Corn Acres

Taking one bit of important USDA date for example- the objective yield surveys that begin in August.

 

Over the years I've seen myriad newest, latest and greatest methodologies, tours and individual analysts who had tomorrow's headlines today. They were pretty all much one hit wonders.

 

For better or worse, USDA has a wider reach, more resources and a more rigorous methodology than any of them and over the course of the 4 reports, appear to narrow it down fairly close to a number that pretty well holds up through subsequent data.

 

My conclusion- it is folly to fight City Hall and, as I've said, could be that sometimes they approach subjective date with a mild agenda but it isn't always against your favor.

 

My take is that if I'm complaining about USDA it probably means that my marketing plan went bad.

 

But also I'll note that I intended to bring up the subject of the MAR 1 corn number which left a lot of seasoned analysts saying, whuh? Although I'd really prefer not to see a 3M+ bean number either.

 

 

Honored Advisor
Posts: 14,896
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: Corn Acres

Just in this little backyardits area of the world, there was a surprising amount of corn on corn planted.  Even with the brainwashing of "plant beans, you`ll lose less".  I supose the farmers came home from the Feburary gloom & doom meetings and put their own pencil to their own paper and saw that "$2 corn and 250bu yield will at least cover the rent and seed"..so around here anyway alot of corn was planted.  Now, corn is worth a little more than everyone thought so a couple weeks ago side-dress rigs were bumping into each other on the road, going to feed the crop and I suppose fungicide planes with be next now that corn isn`t "worthless" . 

Advisor
Posts: 567
Registered: ‎06-03-2010
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Re: Corn Acres

BA Deere, I hope farmers weren't just adding more sidedress N because prices went up a little.  Hopefully, for most, like ourselves, the sidedress was just part of the total plan from the beginning to CUT N rates by applying at a time the crop needed it the most. Thus, keeping a cap on COP and water quality.  If there is one thing I have control over, it is COP. 

This latest round of prices have made the need to  kick that into overdrive, something that should have done earlier.  Sure takes some of the stress out of marketing.  More fun to 'write the expense check to myself'.
The forecast turns very hot again next week, didn't feel too cool this morning working.  Hot ground doesn't cool that quickly.  There is some really great looking crops in Iowa, those guys with all the rains in June might hit the'big one'.  Hopefully we catch some rain this week..didn't need that heat next week with corn ready pollinate in ten days.

A lot of the this crop is on the fence, could go either way...it still comes down to July and August weather...so I guess we have only been watching the previews for the real movie.   Kinda of wonder if we aren't like Brazil, we were told their crops were still good despite the weather, and now they keep getting smaller and smaller. Harvest doesn't lie.  Might be November before the real fireworks start.

Honored Advisor
Posts: 14,896
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: Corn Acres

Jec, I think it was actually a stategy to lower lower costs by feeding the crop when it needs it..however, if corn was $2 on June 5th they might`ve been inclined to apply only #30 or none at all, but with their crop appearing to be worth something, they definately applied and yes probably some "insurance".  But, side dressing to corn that is now shoulder high, it probably wasn`t "over applied", the N that was put on last fall is the nitrogen that causes the problem.  But beings as the soil is a storage "warehouse" , fall application is a logistics necessity in some areas.