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08-13-2011 07:30 PM
Where will all the corn acres come from for 2012 ? Only 75 million to rotate into from soybeans, may grab some from wheat and some lesser crops like dry beans in Minn/Dak and Michigan.Will we see a lot of corn on corn for 2012 which would mean lesser yield ?If demand holds may not catch up until 2013 ?
08-13-2011 10:02 PM - edited 08-13-2011 10:03 PM
American farmers will plant corn fence row to fence row and take out the fence and plant it as well if these prices hold up until next spring. The price of inputs and the relative price of soybeans will have an effect, but only at the margins.
As of this moment, I predict 95 million planted corn acres in the US next year. If we get some late season rains that save the beans and the corn is a bust, some of the fringe areas will plant more beans next year. However, on the whole at these price levels it is going to be wall to wall corn.
08-14-2011 08:17 AM
Both corn and soybeans are increasingly management intensive crops the way we are growing them. But, beans are more aggravating. I've toyed with more corn in the past and always gone back to a 50-50 rotation. However, I believe that I am going to try corn on corn again in a couple of fields.
So, in my own case, I'll likely raise more corn in 2012 than I have been.
Increased fertilizer use will mean higher prices, and it might mean that really good corn numbers go out early.
In my case, I have on-farm storage for a 50-50 rotation but will have to carefully manage and even then likely sell some out of the field if I go more corn acres. So, that might mean some forward selling for harvest, which I seldom do.
I would think that if one really believes that 2012 will mean a lot of local corn acres, they'll get their seed bought early, get their fertilzier prices locked in and be thinking of storage (and drying costs) and marketing in a little different way than they usually do.
My question to all of you is how many of those indicators will be obvious to the industry so they will get an advance idea of just what farrmers intend to do?
08-14-2011 04:21 PM
I think you are right to expect a ton of corn on corn acres. The 2012 corn:soybean ratio is calling for it. In my opinion the high prices will lead to demand destruction before next fall. We may have one more year of corn trading mostly between $6 and $8, but it will not last forever.
Not many of the end-users can justify paying over $8... therefore some will be out of business, or at least not in the market.
Even no-tillers like myself are considering a couple hundred acres of corn on corn for 2012... maybe even pushing that 95 million acre figure higher.
In my opinion the issue of demand outstripping supply gets resolved before the fall of 2012. The next 6-8 months, however, I look for a strong corn market.
08-15-2011 11:54 AM
I am on a Coop board in NC Iowa and the manager has been fielding alot of calls on land rental rates for the upcoming year. I think we will see alot more corn on corn acres for next year due to the fact that many cannot justify raising beans on $300 an acre or more rental land. That leads to following the money which tends to be in the corn acres.
08-16-2011 01:14 PM
You all are forgetting about south America crop, last year they had a drought,,,,,,this year maybe different story...................we also adequate have feed wheat around the world.