07-15-2012 11:29 PM
07-16-2012 12:10 AM
I haven't seen a single time the 'market' (futures) was ahead of the game, or even on top of it, when supplies were cut because of weather. Not in 2007, not during the Russian drought, and I don't think now. Demand will vary little, except the possibility of ethanol if the mandates are changed due to political considerations.
The 'market' is a lagging indicator. In the very short term it can even be misleading if taken too seriously. In the long run it is simply late to the party.
07-16-2012 02:54 PM
How do local markets react to variable supply? If MN grows a big crop, will their local markets go up just because IN didn't, or will some of that corn be cheaper to use at home rather than rail down to IN?
Will we see much variation in the cash market, or will prices level off pretty well (allowing for transportation costs)?