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06-02-2012 03:38 AM
Hot and dry on the way. National yield should be 160 or lower. Macros however are tough to overcome.
Funny how the ag media has this monster crop in the bin already. Like someone posted below it happens every year thats why we have seasonals. Should or maybe I should say could see a nice rally from here to the 4th or somewhere in between. 5.48 should hold the July unless the world ends.
06-02-2012 09:44 AM
I don't agree that seasonals are because "the crop is in the bin". I think seasonals recognize and reward the risk remaining. Harvest price is when the crop is in the bin. Spring price is because the buyers want to lock in some product and are willing to pay a risk premium for someone to guarantee it.
Every year we see the buyers point out the vast potential of our crop and the producers repeat the perils of production. It's the same old story.
There two questions, it seems to me. One is what is the truth as it devleops? That is, as we go through the season, at what time do different viewpoints agree on something? The farmer will say it's dry, the buyer will say you have plenty of potential. Only as the potential is realized doe the buyer grudgingly admit the truth. Convergence in yield appreciation is like convergence in marketing. It's always supposed to happen, but.....
So, one point in my esperience is being right.
The second point, to me, is timing. I bet most of us here have been right on the fundamentals but ahead of the market. I've faced some very uncomfortable margin calls because the trade did not agree with my assessment of yield. Once or twice, I had to bail out. Usually, this is the time when I'd say to my wife, "well, I lost $5,000 overnight" and she'd reply, "Don't tell me that. I don't want to know about it." (Nowdays, losing $5,000 overnight is a drop in the bucket - you can lose $20,000 a day for several days in a row).
06-02-2012 09:54 AM
Crophugger if that's your freeze damaged corn its purely cosmetic the corn will quickly grow out of it witth some heat. It won;t really even set it back , but for maybe a day or so. It looks to me that you need to do a better job of getting the old corn trash out of the row thats looks to be a bigger problem then the frost.
06-02-2012 03:47 PM
I guess I was refering to the spring seasonal price decline due to the media saying all is well after its in the ground which doesn't take long anymore.
Takes awhile to convince them otherwise if there are problems during the growing season.