01-08-2014 03:33 PM
I don't know if any of you guys are still optimistic on wheat. No one should plant this crop without selling it: period.
$4/bu is gonna come across and get ugly for your margins in 2015.
I think even the most optimistic like Palouse have given up too.. I mean, who is left here that honestly thinks the price will go up? I mean, I remember that there was one day Algeria/Egypt did 1 million mt and no one posted about it..... because it stopped the contracts from trading the new record lows into lower territory.
Just look at western Canada: that is all of you wheat guys in about a year.
Good luck to all!
01-08-2014 05:40 PM
A lot of what the ag markets are experiencing rite now seems more to be some thing that I would call (learned behavior.) Prices are lower than previous lows back a decade or two decades ago.Human emotion that there is now more than plenty with no specific weather related or acreage fundamentals staring the maket or trade in the face.tells them to test new or old antiquated waters.As far as fundamentals,this year is getting started off with a lot of record breaking weather,time will tell!
01-08-2014 08:59 PM
01-09-2014 03:40 AM
Farmerguy, it would probably not be wise to try and speak for me as you don't see the markets as I do.
Given up on wheat? Hardly. It's what I do. True, I'm done selling wheat for awhile. Everything's covered so I can bide my time. I'm usually a holder of wheat when the market is down. And a seller when it goes up. I've done this before and it always turns out. Might not this time but I've always been aware of that. Storage is easy for me and much of it is virtually free.
Going to the larger fundamental figures the global inventory of wheat year-end shows a forecast slightly above last year and below the two years previous to that. Hard to argue that is a dangerous figure for the future. It's now up to Mother Nature. We're well ahead of last year's exports.
What I do want to hear is that phrase 'the world is awash in wheat'. It's always made me a lot of money.
01-09-2014 09:18 AM
01-09-2014 01:45 PM
I can store indefinitely just using a fan. It's a dry climate out here and wheat usually goes into the bin at less than 10% Cool it down in the fall and really chill it a month later and she's good for as long as needed. No bug trouble at low moisture and cool temps.