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Senior Contributor
farmerguy89
Posts: 1,020
Registered: ‎06-30-2012
0

Current wheat thoughts

I don't know if any of you guys are still optimistic on wheat. No one should plant this crop without selling it: period.

 

$4/bu is gonna come across and get ugly for your margins in 2015.

 

I think even the most optimistic like Palouse have given up too.. I mean, who is left here that honestly thinks the price will go up? I mean, I remember that there was one day Algeria/Egypt did 1 million mt and no one posted about it..... because it stopped the contracts from trading the new record lows into lower territory.

 

Just look at western Canada: that is all of you wheat guys in about a year.

 

Good luck to all!

Senior Contributor
ray h.
Posts: 427
Registered: ‎05-14-2010
0

Re: Current wheat thoughts

     A lot of what the ag markets are experiencing rite now seems more to be some thing that I would call (learned behavior.) Prices are lower than previous lows back a decade or two decades ago.Human emotion that there is now more than plenty with no specific weather related or acreage fundamentals staring the maket or trade in the face.tells them to test new or old antiquated waters.As far as fundamentals,this year is getting started off with a lot of record breaking weather,time will tell!

Veteran Advisor
Shaggy98
Posts: 3,894
Registered: ‎06-19-2011
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Re: Current wheat thoughts

I remember surviving on $2 wheat, just gotta buckle down. Granted our inputs weren't as high, but neither were our application rates or our yield expectations. Oh, and we weren't using $300,000 tractors to pull our $200,000 air seeders either.
Veteran Advisor
Palouser
Posts: 2,158
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Thinking strategically

Farmerguy, it would probably not be wise to try and speak for me as you don't see the markets as I do.

 

Given up on wheat? Hardly. It's what I do. True, I'm done selling wheat for awhile. Everything's covered so I can bide my time. I'm usually a holder of wheat when the market is down. And a seller when it goes up. I've done this before and it always turns out. Might not this time but I've always been aware of that. Storage is easy for me and much of it is virtually free.

 

Going to the larger fundamental figures the global inventory of wheat year-end shows a forecast slightly above last year and below the two years previous to that. Hard to argue that is a dangerous figure for the future. It's now up to Mother Nature. We're well ahead of last year's exports.

 

What I do want to hear is that phrase 'the world is awash in wheat'. It's always made me a lot of money.

Senior Contributor
425Cat
Posts: 1,512
Registered: ‎05-14-2010
0

Re: Current wheat thoughts

Do you have much trouble keeping the weevil out of it. How long have you safely stored wheat without rotating
Senior Contributor
farmerguy89
Posts: 1,020
Registered: ‎06-30-2012
0

Re: Current wheat thoughts

Diatomaceous earth 425 cat. Cold storage/clean bins.
Senior Contributor
BF2012
Posts: 232
Registered: ‎01-16-2013
0

DE for Weevil?

How does that work?

Senior Contributor
BF2012
Posts: 232
Registered: ‎01-16-2013
0

Re: DE for Weevil?

and how do you treat the bin with it.

Senior Contributor
farmerguy89
Posts: 1,020
Registered: ‎06-30-2012
0

Re: Current wheat thoughts

This should help: http://www1.agric.gov.ab.ca/$department/deptdocs.nsf/all/faq11514

Think of it as inoculating Soybean seed when your Putting grain away. The dirt just kills insects as they cross it cause the grain are super sharp to insects. To us it's dirt.

Frankly, I don't have to really use this stuff as it's rare that storage is continuously full. Plus I have this winter thing and can just chill crops w fans. No tough grain stored, etc.

I can see how this stuff would help in Texas or somewhere like that.
Veteran Advisor
Palouser
Posts: 2,158
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: Current wheat thoughts

I can store indefinitely just using a fan. It's a dry climate out here and wheat usually goes into the bin at less than 10% Cool it down in the fall and really chill it a month later and she's good for as long as needed. No bug trouble at low moisture and cool temps.