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12-21-2011 10:15 AM
The report I saw a day ago and then another this AM is heat building, like 95-100+ in many areas...........the rainfall will be spotty at best and totals likely below 1 inch for most, maybe around .25.............if it breaks the heat it would help, but they are saying it will not and that coupled with already dry conditions is a real issue.......
from what I understand their profile is drier this year than last, so they are running on a thinner margin already........
again these are general observations about two very large growing areas, probably not entirely accurate, but the concensus is damage is being done or is eminent and I think the fact production totals are being lowered by many off their highs would suggest they might not raise what they did last year in areas..........
I will say it again, SA is big and its growing, but you can't beat the weather............and government and infastructure will limit huge moves in more production............can't remember if I posted a link to the article or not, but a few weeks back their was a story stating that soya needs to be in the $11 plus range for SA to even think about expanding soya production...............$4 corn and $9 soya will not promote expansion............
12-21-2011 12:19 PM
Real time information coming from the field.
The storms in Argentina are passing over spot areas in Buenos Aires province only and very weak indeed.
Important areas as La Pampa, Cordoba and Santa Fe were left with nothing. In those places where rain is falling in Buenos Aires, expect anything below 1 inch.
Hot weather returning very soon. La nina is back again.
12-21-2011 12:24 PM
We may get some rains in SA in the next days, weeks , months. We hope and pray for .
But, saying that , and assuming everthing turns out perfect weatherwise till the end of the season, we already lost 8 to 10 millions tons of beans in Argentina, Paraguay and Brazil combined.
Early planted beans are almost dead in a wide area on those 3 countries. Even we get good weather to "think" about the possibility of replanting them ( and we have abt a couple weeks to achieve that, not more ) , those would be low yield - short cicle varities.
1) In Argentina abt 15-20% of intended acreage has not been planted yet . They have till abt jan 15th to plant (low yield seeds) .
2) In Brazil you have the north and center producing states OK . Parana and RGDS under a lot of stress . In RGDS 40 % of the corn is lost. Some farmers are already combining it for milk producing cows. I cant rarely see them replacing those fields with beans as I read in some news. Lack of time and seed availability the main hurdles. But , in case they do, again... low yield seeds.
3) In Paraguay , with a ttl estimated production of 9 million tons , 20% is already toasted. There is turn around on those.
So, forget abt SA record crop.
12-21-2011 12:38 PM
SA crop is not going to be a record???????????????
course that doesn't matter because the macro story means less demand so we should be good...................SARCASM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
12-21-2011 01:05 PM
the 8-10 million tons I said is a very conservative figure with the situation we are in right now . Plus 100s heat , spotty rains . That would equate into just 6 - 7 % of initial crop estimates fror SA.
But we are assuming an scenario where we all know that soybean is like a weed : very resilient to weather problems. But the yield losses can just be stopped with ideal weather ahead , never reversed already.