01-17-2013 11:13 AM - edited 01-17-2013 12:48 PM
I need to put his harpy to rest! I have been listening to the commission houses, brokers, and all those who attempt to stampeed the muppet farmers over the buffalo jump. So I have been doing a little reading, and as expected, the fear instilled by these speculators and brokers regarding the Brazilian Corn Crop being exported and driving down corn prices is . . . in my opinion . . . a Red Herring!
I have a few comments regarding the problems Russia faces in "really competing" with the U.S.. The infrastructure and port facilities are not up to snuff, to compete with the United States.
Sooooooo . . . here is the inside skinny from the mouth of a Brazilian trade official, as published in the Financial Times in August of last year. To wit:
1. The big headline was that Brazil is now the #2 exporter in the world, replacing Argentina!
2.Brazil believes it will export 15,000,000 tons of corn this year or . . . 525,000,000 bushels.
3. Brazil believes it will export 20,000,000 tons of corn next year or . . . 700,000,000 bushels.
I don't know how to put this but, that is like a gnat on an elephants ass!
So, according to my calculations, forget about Brazil and the hyped threat to the world market price. They have a long, long way to go. They still have to get it loaded. I have been reviewing the Baltic Dry Index and other shipping reports to find out if Brazil does in fact have a problem with exporting their record coffee crop, their record sugar crop, and have shipping available to ship their "record" (LMAO!) soybean crop, and last but not least that corn crop that is going to drive American Farmers into Bankruptcy.
There you have it. That is what I learned today. Adios Amigos. john
here is the complete article- you may have a problem accessing it.
Well . . . what about shipping and the ports that export soybeans and other agricultural products. Read for yourself, and formulate you own conclusion of the threat of Brazil to American farmers.
Porto de Paranaguá – PR
Porto de Paranaguá is the largest Brazilian port exporting agricultural products, with emphasis on soybeans and soybean meal. However the port is currently saturated, and is not following the growth of the Brazilian agriculture. The port lacks structure to handle the current volume of exports.
Other related problem is the access routes that lead to the port, where the trucks wait in line for days until they get the opportunity to ship. Some of them even wait for a month.
Also, the port has been receiving several complaints of its irregularities when it comes to the compliance with the environmental and sanitary measures.
As the second largest Brazilian port, it mainly receives ships from United States, China, Japan, South Korea and Paraguay.
Porto de Rio Grande – RS
Privileged by its geographic features, the Porto de Rio Grande has consolidated its position as the port of the Southern Cone of South America. The port is public and administrated by the Rio Grande do Sul state government.
Among its major commodities exported, are soybeans, soybean meal, wheat and rice. The main export destinations are China, Spain, Holland, Japan and France. Among the main imported goods are urea, granular potash, natural calcium phosphate and sulfuric acid. On import, the main source countries were Argentina, Morocco, Lithuania, China and the United States.
Rio Grande is one of the most developed ports in Brazil counting with good logistics and projects for expansion. The port is also one of the few in the country that is not saturated, and that counts with a long wharf. That is the reason why importers and exporters are preferring to flow its production through Rio
Grande instead of Paranaguá.
So what about the Russians? Are they going to take over the world grain trade? I do not think so! they have the same problems as Brazil.