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Senior Contributor
Wrestler
Posts: 208
Registered: ‎01-19-2013
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Early frost all the bulls have left??

Crop is respectable in Iowa and larger then anticipated every where else. I still contend we go lower than most people are prepared for.Hope you have your ducks in a row. It has been an odd year and an early frost is not out of the question, but I'm not putting my future on it.

Veteran Advisor
Shaggy98
Posts: 4,046
Registered: ‎06-19-2011
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Re: Early frost all the bulls have left??

I agree wrestler, this just might be the crop that reaches out and touches us all.  Lots of good looking crops scattered all around, I'm not the bull I was a few weeks back.

Veteran Advisor
BA Deere
Posts: 8,511
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: Early frost all the bulls have left??

In the short term I think a early forst is all the bulls have left, but it is always darkest before the dawn.   Oh I don`t think we`ll spring back over $8 again anytime soon.   It probably will go down lower than most think, but it`s still over sold.  If corn does go to that "$3" level and other grains follow respectfully, that won`t work on the 140 million acres of land brought into production around the world in the last 4,5 years..  Even in this country, will we see +90 million acres going to corn if the spring RA insurance price is $3?

We shouldn`t have to light a candle to see the Sun.
Senior Contributor
Wrestler
Posts: 208
Registered: ‎01-19-2013
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Re: Early frost all the bulls have left??

We wil be lucky to raise trend, but everyone else is getting rain. One of those years. Good luck to all.

Senior Contributor
BF2012
Posts: 245
Registered: ‎01-16-2013

Re: Early frost all the bulls have left??

I'd be very careful about believing all of the fantasyland yield reports.   I have friends and neighbors who have been "estimating" their yields, and I've been in their fields personally....and someone has been smoking something.  Grabbing the biggest ear in sight and extrapolating that across an 80 is just **bleep** stupid.

 

You want a true picture...get up in the air.    All of this drive by estimating is pure insanity.     Plenty of folks wishful thinking for 200 are going to be disappointed come harvest time.    Takes one hell of a yield in a field with uneven stands, ponding, and N loss to put on a huge average.

 

Old Jerry Gulke with his "My corn yields will blow your socks off" commentary is well.....someone's blowing something...and I think it's smoke up your ass.   just saying

Senior Contributor
NDf
Posts: 329
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: Early frost all the bulls have left??

Maybe the corn is made, but looking at the last 30 day rain amounts for the states of Iowa and Ill. and the new forcasts for the next 14 days I doubt the soys are made and the corn won't finish great everywhere.

Veteran Advisor
Jim Meade / Iowa City
Posts: 2,463
Registered: ‎04-30-2010
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Re: Early frost all the bulls have left??

Everyone else is doing fine but I'm not doing so well.  That's what I tell my wife and I believe it.  I expect another 2005, when nationwide yields were good enough to hold prices down but my yields suffered.  Short crop and low prices.  Perfect storm.

 

I think the beans are coming along well, just to look at them.  I've been out mowing waterways but haven't walked in many of the beans.  Driving right along side of them, they seem to be canopying well and filling out.

 

We're not getting rain.  It has gone north of us and south of us, but this is like 2012 for that.

 

My prediction is we will not know the yield until well after the combines are put away.  There will be too much adding and subtracting going on.  You and I will know our own yields.  I'm willing to be there is very little corn sold early.  Partly because a lot of people sold for good money earlier this year and the tax man may say to defer income.  Another reason is we may not be ready to take corn with a 4 when we've been used to a 7.  Eventually, of course, nearly all of us will sell.  But, it may be a long, bitter, drug out affair.

Senior Advisor
ECIN
Posts: 2,047
Registered: ‎10-17-2012
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Re: Early frost all the bulls have left??

Hey bf - Was just wondering here -- hows your corn look ? 

Senior Contributor
IllinoisSteve
Posts: 204
Registered: ‎04-13-2013
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Re: Early frost all the bulls have left??

Yes, the 1974 frost scare seems to be what those who refuse to believe we can still raise big crops are clinging to.  This crop isn't in the bin yet but is getting closer everyday.  We can still lose some yield off the top if some areas remain dry and there are other issues here and there.  We'd better hope that is the case because if not we will be staring down the barrel of a monster crop.  I am still not convinced that we top 14 billion but I do think we are over 13.5 at this time.  It will all depend on how we finish.  There are areas of the cornbelt that remain dry but there are areas in the south and east that are quite possibly looking at some of the best crops ever.  Sorry fellas but those acres do count.  Quite likely the areas that were hardest hit with heavy rains and delayed planting will end up with better than expected yields when all is said and done.  I didn't say great or even good, but better than expected.  Farmers are renowned for talking down their crops and underestimating potential.  I just can't see anything good coming out of this report this morning.  I have a real bad feeling about it.  IF we do raise a 14 billion bushel or higher corn crop it kind of shoots holes in the whole Peak Corn theory doesn't it?  I mean if we can raise a 13 to 14 billion bushel crop after all of the problems this year just think what we could do with good or even average conditions.  Time will tell I guess.  12 billion is gone and 11 is in jeopardy?  I don't think so.  Good luck to everyone.

Frequent Contributor
Sillinoisfarmer
Posts: 44
Registered: ‎12-28-2012
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Re: Early frost all the bulls have left??

Bf2012 I agree with everything you said x2! Within 5 miles of my farm there are hundreds of acres of pp. There are also fields of two foot tall corn that is tasseling and putting on ears. We keep dropping into the mid or lower 60's every night and only get into the lower 80's during the day. Many fields have not begun to tassel yet! Soybeans are anywhere from closing thirty inch rows to ankle high and to top it off after being so wet for so long we are now getting dry and could use a rain. I know there are garden spots that will do 200 bpa but there also spots that will do 0, so using logic that is only 100 bpa when it is all averaged out in the end. The biggest problem with the report coming out is that it is now a dated snapshot that is not reflecting the true reality of the situation that we have today. Hard to maximize farm income with questionable data but that is the way the game must be played! I am not worried about this year as insurance price puts in a nice floor for profit on my corn this year. If the talking heads think that everyone with less than 150 bps will just plant corn again for a low price with high inputs they are on crack! Here we have other crop options and the old maximum of low prices cures low prices will come true once again. Well nothing to do but wait for the comic strip to come out, good luck everyone!