08-11-2013 08:30 PM
Crop is respectable in Iowa and larger then anticipated every where else. I still contend we go lower than most people are prepared for.Hope you have your ducks in a row. It has been an odd year and an early frost is not out of the question, but I'm not putting my future on it.
08-11-2013 08:36 PM
I agree wrestler, this just might be the crop that reaches out and touches us all. Lots of good looking crops scattered all around, I'm not the bull I was a few weeks back.
08-11-2013 08:43 PM
In the short term I think a early forst is all the bulls have left, but it is always darkest before the dawn. Oh I don`t think we`ll spring back over $8 again anytime soon. It probably will go down lower than most think, but it`s still over sold. If corn does go to that "$3" level and other grains follow respectfully, that won`t work on the 140 million acres of land brought into production around the world in the last 4,5 years.. Even in this country, will we see +90 million acres going to corn if the spring RA insurance price is $3?
08-11-2013 09:18 PM
I'd be very careful about believing all of the fantasyland yield reports. I have friends and neighbors who have been "estimating" their yields, and I've been in their fields personally....and someone has been smoking something. Grabbing the biggest ear in sight and extrapolating that across an 80 is just **bleep** stupid.
You want a true picture...get up in the air. All of this drive by estimating is pure insanity. Plenty of folks wishful thinking for 200 are going to be disappointed come harvest time. Takes one hell of a yield in a field with uneven stands, ponding, and N loss to put on a huge average.
Old Jerry Gulke with his "My corn yields will blow your socks off" commentary is well.....someone's blowing something...and I think it's smoke up your ass. just saying
08-11-2013 09:36 PM
Maybe the corn is made, but looking at the last 30 day rain amounts for the states of Iowa and Ill. and the new forcasts for the next 14 days I doubt the soys are made and the corn won't finish great everywhere.
08-11-2013 10:55 PM
Everyone else is doing fine but I'm not doing so well. That's what I tell my wife and I believe it. I expect another 2005, when nationwide yields were good enough to hold prices down but my yields suffered. Short crop and low prices. Perfect storm.
I think the beans are coming along well, just to look at them. I've been out mowing waterways but haven't walked in many of the beans. Driving right along side of them, they seem to be canopying well and filling out.
We're not getting rain. It has gone north of us and south of us, but this is like 2012 for that.
My prediction is we will not know the yield until well after the combines are put away. There will be too much adding and subtracting going on. You and I will know our own yields. I'm willing to be there is very little corn sold early. Partly because a lot of people sold for good money earlier this year and the tax man may say to defer income. Another reason is we may not be ready to take corn with a 4 when we've been used to a 7. Eventually, of course, nearly all of us will sell. But, it may be a long, bitter, drug out affair.
08-12-2013 07:14 AM
Yes, the 1974 frost scare seems to be what those who refuse to believe we can still raise big crops are clinging to. This crop isn't in the bin yet but is getting closer everyday. We can still lose some yield off the top if some areas remain dry and there are other issues here and there. We'd better hope that is the case because if not we will be staring down the barrel of a monster crop. I am still not convinced that we top 14 billion but I do think we are over 13.5 at this time. It will all depend on how we finish. There are areas of the cornbelt that remain dry but there are areas in the south and east that are quite possibly looking at some of the best crops ever. Sorry fellas but those acres do count. Quite likely the areas that were hardest hit with heavy rains and delayed planting will end up with better than expected yields when all is said and done. I didn't say great or even good, but better than expected. Farmers are renowned for talking down their crops and underestimating potential. I just can't see anything good coming out of this report this morning. I have a real bad feeling about it. IF we do raise a 14 billion bushel or higher corn crop it kind of shoots holes in the whole Peak Corn theory doesn't it? I mean if we can raise a 13 to 14 billion bushel crop after all of the problems this year just think what we could do with good or even average conditions. Time will tell I guess. 12 billion is gone and 11 is in jeopardy? I don't think so. Good luck to everyone.
08-12-2013 07:22 AM