12-03-2012 07:41 PM
I have been looking at Dec-Jan as the beginning of serious physical commodity trading. As I said before, when Egyprt starts buying US wheat then the market will start getting serious. This purchase is right on the money in terms of timing. Exact dates are unimportant but this is the continuation of a trend that was forseen and is forseeable. As usual I'm completely unconcerned w/ futures trading. It truly is inconsequential as futures drive nothing prior to a trend becoming well established.
West Coast SWW took 165,000 and SRW 115,000 out of a global 400,000 tn tender. It's only Dec 3rd.
12-03-2012 07:50 PM
I have had a feeling since September that wheat will lead this whole thing higher..... However, it has taken much longer than I expected.
12-03-2012 08:32 PM
pal, I hope this thing takes off. my unsold bushels are on dp and the local elevator said I am the only customer with wheat left, been kinda nervous lol. enjoy your posts on here btw.
12-03-2012 10:58 PM
palouser, thanks for the post. Been preg testing cows all day and missed this. My bin doors are staying shut. I think there is a lot of developments over the next few months that could light a fire under this wheat market.
12-04-2012 01:09 AM
The situation you describe is what i enjoy. December, and all kinds of things to look forward to.
I probably have said it before but a sage terminal manager, who has since retired, once said he'd not met anyone who had the marketing attiude I did. Of course, maybe he was sage enough he thought I'd like to hear him say that but, I knew he'd seen it all. In fact, he and I had a few marketing contests when I was making sales that were pretty remarkable. We always respected each other though he kept me on my toes a few times. We always shared a certain disdain for some of the exporter tactics - and he was one of the only large independent terminals in the system.
In any case, I have no qualms, I sleep like a baby and I never look back. There are times when even I have to conclude there may be a big reservoir of stupid in me but, I make the best decision with the info i have on hand and i'm grateful I've a string of experiences to rely on. So far, so good. Stupid on a grand scale may happen yet but I won't worry about it.
12-04-2012 01:48 AM
Here in spring wheat country in ND are starting to hear problems for producing new crop 2013 not only large part of state experiencing a drought but ndsu is confirming they have weeds that are resistant to widely used chemicals. There are pockets in state that have kochia resistant to either Starane or widematch or resistant to banvel / clarity , and also some resistant to roundup. The loss of anyone of these chemicals to treat kochia could have significant effect on yields and ablitity to grow wheat. This is going to have to be high priority in getting new formulations to kill weeds or were going to see wheat producing area's significantly reduced in the future. This could play into the market next year if we have yield loss to weed pressure from resistant weeds.
12-04-2012 06:02 AM
And yet, wheat is unchanged. Must be plenty of it :-)
In this case, I'll go back to one of my favorite quotes. "The futures market is never right. If it was, the price would never change in the future." :-)
Wheat better hold the November lows or it could have a nasty dis-investment feeding frenzy before your shortage catches up to it.
Said another way, it is a great time to buy it with very low risk if wrong.
12-04-2012 12:18 PM
i don't think Egypt buying SRW or White wheat is really what we need
we need to do some milling HRW and DNS business
plus we have a long way to go to get close to where we need to be on exports..........we need this business to keep coming our way.........if it does and more of it can become milling wheat..........then one can get bullish..
"buy fear" "sell greed"
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12-04-2012 02:48 PM