09-03-2013 08:00 AM
Outside of the Syrian military concerns, macro traders are digesting mixed data out of China. Over the weekend Chinese officials announced their manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 in July a NEW 16-month high, up from the 50.1 estimate in June. But at the same time they announced they were suspending the release of some of the more industry-specific data because of "accuracy" concerns.
From my perspective, this simply means the numbers didn't jive or add up to what was being reported. Something else we need to consider is that for the first time since 2009, India's manufacturing PMI data actually fell below a 50 reading, prompting more talk about a possible widespread global slowdown.
Near-term, moving forward the markets will remain focused on several interesting dynamics and moving parts: Fed tapering (if, when and how much); who will become the next Fed chair (Larry Summers now the clear favorite); Syria military efforts (will the US lead the attacks) The US debt-ceiling (can we avoid major cuts); Berlusconi's expulsion from the Italian Senate (will this cause massive turmoil in Italy); the German elections (will Merkel keep her post)???
Though US stocks are higher today, the takeaway should be we are entering into extremely volatile waters. If you lean the wrong direction you could easily get thrown overboard. Best advice, stay close to shore and swim where the locals are swimming...don't get daring!
09-03-2013 08:07 AM
Which one of those ambulances are you going to chase?