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07-23-2012 03:22 PM
One source is telling DowJones today that given the drought we "can't rule out export restrictions."
Western Milling analyst Joel Karlin said that "all options are on the table if the U.S. tries to conserve grain supplies," adding that "it will take years after the current drought to rebuild world grain supplies and restore subsoil moisture."
Possible actions could include waiving the ethanol mandade and even suspending grain exports.
Political likelihood of these actions seems shaky, no? Thoughts?
07-23-2012 03:39 PM - edited 07-23-2012 03:41 PM
Which one of the "geniuses" in the Obummer administration is going to tell the Japenese and Chinese?
The high prices are already doing it. Has anyone seen any new sales of concenquence in the last couple of weeks?
Brazilian corn as if they had any is already priced as cheaply into Herford, Tx as corn from SW Iowa.
At the rate the crop is cooking my bet is NO embargo is nessassary as sourcing a new sale now would be a Houdini trick anyway.
Sales already on the books in many places because the "experts" said it will only go "down" are more than or at least equal to the areas production in many locations.
07-23-2012 03:46 PM - edited 07-23-2012 03:58 PM
I think high prices will restrict exports, if need be.
"it will take years after the current drought to rebuild world grain supplies and restore subsoil moisture."
OH NO, I have heard that before only to see a big production the next year and corn and bean prices drop in half. Just like they were headed two months ago. So would this person be in favor of a grain reserve so we don't hit this wall again? If restrictions needed to be put in place, announcing a grain reserve program for the next year at the same time would cut out the specs that would want to cut the legs out of the market to make a buck off the disaster. But how much money is behind the talk of restrictions is the real question.
Folks, we are barely above last year's corn price. Beans can still recover with August rains and yield well. There have been several months for endusers to price grain well below todays price as farmers don't hit the tops when selling. Are we going to restrict tractor and combine and pork and beef and seed exports also? Just want a level playing field.
07-23-2012 04:09 PM
My proposal for a global grain reserve is absolutely water tight relative to comments like that.
Ethanol mandates may be temporarily reduced, and would make that sector a poor substitute for a reserve.
07-23-2012 05:13 PM
Besides John, we are a capitalist country with price determined by willing buyers and willing sellers. Let those with the money buy and those without do without.
That is simply true capitalism as it is meant to be. Survival of the fittest or those best prepared.
07-23-2012 05:23 PM
Every country in the world puts export restrictions on when their grain supply is low. Including China, India, Argentina, Russia Ukraine, and the EU. The US's needs should come first. Our food , feed, and fuel needs should come first. I gaurentee you China would care less if we didn't have enough, and they bought the last load of beans wheat or corn.
07-23-2012 06:24 PM
Poed, you are Right on there. But you will have vr bucks of the world who could of bought all the corn they needed to for 5.00 and didn't. but will complain about it till the next crop comes in.
07-23-2012 08:37 PM
Good point p-oed.
Happened here in Canada in maybe the '80ies when wheat went high.
Government put a ceiling on price for Canadian use and since our price was pooled everyone got less than we would have if the market had been open and the highest bidder got the product.
part of the deal was they were going to maintain a floor price for us too.
Couple years later they decided the floor price was not a good idea and they dropped that and left us at the mercy of the market again.
Better get the promise of those handouts in someones blood!