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08-15-2013 10:20 AM
The Farm Service Agency (FSA) reported acres numbers were released this morning and are interesting to say the least.
On Corn they showed a figure of 88.771 million reported and 3.411 million of prevented planting acres. If you add in added acres equal to the change in the FSA August 2012 report to the Final 2012 Corn acres shown in January figure of 4.2 million you only come up with 92.97 million 2013 U.S. Corn acres.
On Soybeans, FSA reported 72.060 million acres with 1.618 million of prevented planting acres. Making the same acreage addition from August 2012 to Final 2012 a figure of 2.307 million could be added for total potential 2013 U.S. Soybean acres of 74.367 million. I personally believe that a higher figure than that occurred due to the price incentive to plant this year.
On Wheat, FSA shows 51.677 million reported acres in their August 15, 2013 report and adding in the 2012 added figure of 4.658 million from August to Final 2012, you arrive at a total of 56.335 million or real close to what they are currently showing.
Sorghum figures out to end up with 7.77 million 2013 acres using the reported acres for 2013 and the same adjustment figure.
While I know that this is not totally accurate, the adjustment factors are something to look at and this may be part of why futures are higher today.
If I know for sure, I would not be working for a living.
08-15-2013 10:48 AM
Thanks for the post citifarmer. For days now I have been trying to understand the report. I knew their had to be a couple million unplanted acres out there. The report showed no acreage change, just a lower yield in areas that should have bumper crops. USDA has kicked the can down the road this year and it has worked well for them.
08-15-2013 12:19 PM
redrotor.... where are you located ... i'm in Nebraska and our certification deadline for insurance was clear back in July... just wondering how you certify so late...
08-15-2013 04:02 PM
So I continued some math on what we have done in the past. Remember, past performance does not indicate future la, la, la
Here is chart, nothing fancy, just took half of August to see what that looked like, and totaled past Sep, Oct and Nov GDUs, for maturing and drying. Total is what that year has for those 4-months, grant it, a Frost is Frost, but just wondering what we usually have left in the tank for heat:
|Year||GDU - Aug||GDU - Half||GDU-Sep||GDU-Oct||GDU-Nov||Total|
08-15-2013 04:04 PM
Ins cert. was done in early July. I called FSA about 7-1 for crop report appt and early Aug. times were available but I didn"t want to leave work for FSA. So I go late Aug. They said they were "swamped". I know the feeling. Dodge Co. Wi.
08-16-2013 08:01 AM
Anywhere that planting ended late would cause reporting to be late. And lots of those time slots (Aug) ahead of me were filled, but I agree I don,t think we'll change acres much. It does give USDA an excuse to raise acres later.
08-16-2013 09:26 AM
If you are not in the farm program your acrs don't have to be in there, but I'm not in the farm program and I reported, anyway, partly out of habit, because the insurance people need numbers and so there was a record if I ever need it.
So, no matter why, the point is that some have to report and do, some don't have to report and don't, some don't have to report and do and I suppose some have to report and don't.
It's hard to tell how much this affects the numbers, but the poster who pointed out that these numbers don't tell the whole story is right. The question is, does it tell enough of the story to market on, or does the combine still have to roll for the final tally?