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04-04-2014 08:48 AM
Post from RT-1 : I am not even going to read the story.........I've read and heard it before. Plus, I've already seen the movie. And for that matter already lived it. Nothing to see here. I would agree that we now need a story about a bad crop and just how high would prices go
Thanks for my Laugh of the day !!! But RT- since you didn't read it - I will fill you in some - It sez that ALL of Ohio will have a bumper crop , with The northern third having a bumper , bumper crop - the problem it said is that farmers should start today building more storage !
Jenny - also a thank you for my laugh yesterday !
BTW RT-1 You need to get DB 51 to write the scripe for your Doom and Gloom Movie - He is one of the best ! Well Hobby can be right up there too -
04-04-2014 09:50 AM
Well, unless you assume ther's something seriously different with climate- either cyclical or anthropegenic- and I don't think it is a good idea to draw a conclusion about weather vs. climate for either of those cases-- then we are going to have a whopper sometime.
Barring a severe offset somewhere else, it will have a multi-year impact when it occurs.
BTW, dry consitions in the WCB (which can go away quickly at any time) tned to prtend a more binary outcome- higher probability of a big crop, higher probability of a smaller one, with the middle giving up chances to both ends.
Which might argue slightly in favor of using puts to hedge.
04-04-2014 10:12 AM
As far as building bins, I've always (bin) a fan of bin, lock, go on vacation. That way you're selling what you know you have, when and to who you want to sell it. It's not to say forward selling can't work. But given the demand added to the equation, I wouldn't be selling a seed right now. We shall see....
04-04-2014 10:36 AM
That is the problem of having all the markets
In one spot..they think one way.
First, record crops.......I am getting tired
Of hearing that.
From what I've been told grain should
Go up every year, despite increased
Years....due to population growth...
Anyone remember hearing we must
Produce more or we will run out of
Just because things look good for spring
crops, they take wheat down.
Wheat in most areas in the world is not
In my area fields are being turned in the
Pastures....many ponds now dry or low.
Some fears now that they could be
Death traps. Either cows get stuck in
Mud or the water quality bad.
Many now faced with either haul water
Or drill well ($$$)....well driler backed
up a month or two.....and why do
The expense if no rain thus no grass.
Has the Chicago bunch looked at the areas
A word for thought.....these "people" that
are deciding what we get paid for our
Crops walk around dressed like clowns.
Think about it.
And it appears, at least by SF editor, Kansas
Is a major cotton state. !!!!
People wake up
04-04-2014 10:55 AM
Oh Jenny - it just won't be ANY fun to come on here and not pull a few chains - lol
But lets look at this way - just for fun -- How much yield potential do seed companies and experts say that are in a bag of see corn ? Something like 300 bpa ? Well thats before we plant it , right ?? Then look at the USDA's numbers of ONLY 166 bpa -- Girl thats a 134 diff to the LOW side just to start off with ! I'm just say'n' here The USDA could start out a lot higher .
Look at last year - i tried to give you the best updates on corn , not only from here but other states - BUT OOOOOOOOOOHHHHHHHHH No ECI was full of s--t ! And then you have your feet hurting from walking on hot coals - I tried , Dam I did , - lol
Last year - I know you all up Nort had a HARD time - even IOWAY had problems - big problems but I don't know IF I agree it was a record over all crop -it was pretty good - even without your help up there , So this year WILL be different - I would say that the Dakota's are the states to watch , then northern MN and WS - Look at Hobbies State map for percent of production - Heck IN is only 7 percent ! And other than Ioway and IL , as long as they have good crops - do's the others really matter ?? What about Ioway and IL have great crops and all others just have a nomal OR close to normal ?
I'm NOT saying we will have a bumper crop - but with enough acres of corn - do we need one to bust the markets down ? What about the World ? The Ukraine ? SA . We are not the only game in town , Heck even our OWN companies run to them other than pay us higher prices ( We Don't buy any Smithfield here )
Just throwing out some ideas out there missy
Its A fun game to play -- isn't it
04-04-2014 11:13 AM
Seems like the market people only like to use the demand card when there is (percievably) is none. I tell you what - those on the sell side of the equasion are not so dumb to figure out that the demand for crops is going to be hugh. Even Maryland won't be able to produce enough this year to offset that demand requirement.
Last years crappy corn is working it's way through the system. I've heard rumors of the coop I worked for trying to "blend off" the worst of it, and getting more in from producers that is of questionable quality. Not sure where the unit train they're loading is off to - I'm glad I don't have to deal with it.
04-04-2014 11:29 AM
I'm glad I don't have to deal with it ????????????????? Oh come on here Jenny -you haven't lost that fire yet have you ? you have ONLY been retired for less than a year - right ?
04-04-2014 11:54 AM
I'm the SF Editor that you are referring to. Read the post again, I said nothing to the idea that Kansas is a MAJOR cotton state. C'mon man. You can do better than that. I asked what the production level is in Kansas. That is not stating that Kansas is a MAJOR cotton-producing state.