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Honored Advisor
Posts: 7,494
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
0

Re: Flash drought or normal?

Heat and late planting is a common issue up here on the hill sw. We try to get corn waist high and rooted before the 100s come. Because our heat is usually dry and breezy. Yesterday we started some sprinklers for the tiny corn. Full profile or not. It's not ready for heat.
We Lost heat units to rains and a cool spring through delays. Every day over 94 degrees is lost heat units on mature corn and brutal without deep roots
Senior Advisor
Posts: 2,642
Registered: ‎11-02-2010
0

Re: Flash drought or normal?

Heat steals yield once corn hits V5. Period.

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Senior Advisor
Posts: 1,039
Registered: ‎05-20-2010

Re: Flash drought or normal?

[ Edited ]

Well, I would argue v7 or v8, but ok, v5, over half the IN/OH crop is not at v5 yet, so no damage Lots of it just pushing v2.  :-)

 

Hey, before anyone paints me a bear, I'm the one who has been expecting a 2017 or 2018 weather issue since late 2014. I'll stick with my often made comment since then, "95% chance of weather driven bull market in corn in either 2017 or 2018". 

 

To me, the bigger story is just how ridiculously complacent the corn market is, period. CZ should easily already be 4.50.

 

Just do the math, 82 mil harvested at 161  (161 is the mean of the last 10 years if you exclude 2012) so an average crop = 13.2Bil

Carryout drops to under 750mil easy and we have $6.00 corn, easily $6. As a user, if you aren't covered on corn needs, you need to have your head examined. 

 

jmo

Senior Advisor
Posts: 2,642
Registered: ‎11-02-2010
0

Re: Flash drought or normal?

Time. You guys will be dealing with rootless corn syndrome on that late corn if the rain doesn't materialize.
Veteran Contributor
Posts: 127
Registered: ‎06-08-2010

Re: Flash drought or normal?

Okay,  but what about SA increase in corn production over last year of over 1 billion bushel plus.   Besides with your 750 million carryover left after 161, ET has us at 171, but going with yours, huge increase in corn acres next year and still won't run out of corn from this year.  The chance we get 2 below trend  years in a row, then I could see $6.   Right now, corn in the bin from 16,  still deciding on its fate.