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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,179
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Floor Talk April 10 (Report Day)

[ Edited ]

USDA Says:

 

Corn carryout= 757 million bushels vs. the average analyst estimate of 824 million bushels.

 

Soybean carryout=  125 million bushels  vs. the average analyst estimate of 137 million bushels.

 

BULLISH Corn? What do you think?

 

World Carryover:

Corn=  125.3 million metric tons vs. the average analyst estimate of 120.3 mmt

Soybeans=62.6 mmt vs. the avg analyst estimate of 60.1 mmt.

 

Corn used for ethanol is estimated at 4.55 billion bushels vs. the USDA's March estimate of 4.50 bbu.

 

TRADE REACTION:

One analyst says the market traded the bullish U.S. corn ending stock number first, as it shot up right away. Then the market digested as bigger than expected world corn carryover (125.3 mmt vs. 120.2 mmt) and it came back down. But, as the U.S. weather remains unfavorable for planting, the market's focus could return to that tighter U.S. corn carryover number, going forward.

Another analyst says, "I feel like the reports are not at all bearish against exectations and are even a little friendly.  Especially the corn.  What a reaction to a not a super shock report.  We are reacting bearish right now but I would not be surprised if we rally by the end of the day.  USADA is still looking at an overall tight scenario when considering all the markets."

And yet another analyst is saying, "Old crop corn ending stocks increased less than expected.  This still leaves adequate supply for the remainder of the marketing year.   The market continues to watch Spring weather closely as many of the corn producing states remain cold and wet.  The USDA lowered feed demand by 150 million bushels with a slight decline in corn exports.  This would be the lowest corn exports since the 1971-72 crop year.  Despite an unchanged soybean carryout of 125 million bushels, market reactions showed disappointment with the market trading 6 to 7 cents per bushel lower on the day.  A small decrease in wheat feedings accounted for the increase in ending stocks.

 

Mike

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The May futures corn contract settled 5 cents higher at $6.49. The May soybean futures contract closed 2 cents lower at $13.92. The May wheat futures settled 12 cents lower at $6.96 per bushel. The May soymeal futures finished $1.90 per short ton higher at $392.00. The May soyoil futures finished $0.05 higher at $50.03.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.12 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 142 points higher. The S&P has hit its highest level ever Wednesday.

 

One analyst says, "Since the report comes out during pit trading hours , it's all about the knee jerk reaction to the numbers. The market traded the numbers both ways. The corn ending stocks number was lower than expected so short held positions expecting a higher number began buying back their shorts and a sharp rally accured. But since it was higher than last month new sellers sold the rally pushing corn down on the day in the first 10 minutes o the report. The same happed for beans and wheat."

 

Mike

------

At 11:50am;

Corn has turned higher, after turning lower, after starting higher Wednesday. What a choppy trading day!

 

Mike

------

At mid-session:

The May futures corn contract is trading 7 cents higher at $6.51, while new-crop Dec. futures are unchanged. The May soybean futures contract is trading unchanged at $13.97, while the new-crop Nov. contract is 7 cents lower. May wheat futures are trading 8 cents lower at $7.00 per bushel. The May soymeal futures are trading $0.40 per short ton higher at $395.20. The May soyoil futures are trading $0.15 lower at $49.83.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.24 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 127 points higher. The S&P has hit its highest level ever Wednesday.

 

Mike

-------------

 

At the open:

The May futures corn contract is trading 1 cent higher at $6.45. The May soybean futures contract is trading 2 cents higher at $13.97. May wheat futures are trading 4 cents lower at $7.04 per bushel. The May soymeal futures are trading unchanged per short ton at $394.80. The May soyoil futures are trading $0.08 higher at $50.06.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.42 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 66 points higher.

 

Mike

-----------

At 7:15am:

--Japan plans to buy 600,000 tons of South African corn. There's a bite in the hind end to U.S. export business. Not only did the U.S. get looked over, but Brazil did too.

--Have you noticed that the outside markets have favored higher grain prices lately? Everyday that corn has been higher, the Dollar has been lower, and the Dow higher. Crude oil has fluctuated, but it mainly influences soybeans more than corn. Actually, some believe there is little relation between corn and crude.

 

Mike

--------------

 

At 6:45am

 

Early calls:  Corn is seen 1-2 cents higher, soybeans 1-2 cents lower, and wheat 2-4 cents lower.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mostly lower.
Crude Oil=$0.37 per barrel lower
Dollar=Lower.
Wall Street=Seen opening higher, for a third day in a row.

World=Asia/Pacific stocks and Europe's stocks are higher.

 

Green means go, for corn.

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

Advisor
giolucas
Posts: 1,126
Registered: ‎06-25-2010
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Re: Floor Talk April 10 (Report Day)

Love these shorter hours, I lose money faster in a shorter amount of time.

Senior Contributor
rswfarms
Posts: 1,377
Registered: ‎12-17-2012
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Re: Floor Talk April 10 (Report Day)

Me too giolucas. LOL

 

I am sitting in the position of having 0% of my 2013 crop production, both corn and beans, completely unsold/hedged. Although I think we will be able to get at least a $5.50 Fall Delivered corn price for new crop, this is over $2 lower than my average 2012 price. However, with a normal yield, $5.50 corn works out to around a 6% ROI for a corn production figure. 6% is in the 50+year average range, so guess we shouldn't complain. You don't get rich quick with a corn 6% ROI, but at least you will still be around for the 2014 crop year.

Advisor
rayjenkins
Posts: 684
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: Floor Talk April 10 (Report Day)

Will you be posting just as prolifically when corn is $4......that is the real question

Advisor
giolucas
Posts: 1,126
Registered: ‎06-25-2010
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Re: Floor Talk April 10 (Report Day)

Did you see that crazy shet..... WTF

Senior Contributor
highyields
Posts: 792
Registered: ‎06-04-2010
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Re: Floor Talk April 10 (Report Day)

[ Edited ]

everybody must have went out and feed their hogs and cattle since the 1st of March.   Thanks guy...

 

It just isn't too bullish for corn.  Its just lower number then what the trade expected.  we are still gain corn bushels If I read this right compared to the March 1st report.   

Contributor
BrookfieldTwp
Posts: 42
Registered: ‎05-25-2010
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Re: Floor Talk April 10 (Report Day)

Yesterday's CME pre- report   said anything at the lower end of the range would be friendly for corn...well 67 million bu. under the low end I would think is "BULLISH"

Advisor
giolucas
Posts: 1,126
Registered: ‎06-25-2010
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Re: Floor Talk April 10 (Report Day)

Overall I see soybeans bullish. 

Frequent Contributor
DKIL
Posts: 55
Registered: ‎08-02-2011
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Re: Floor Talk April 10 (Report Day)

Nothing new. USDA is incompetent.

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,179
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk April 10 (Report Day)

More bullish news for the corn market Wednesday. Here is the Energy Information Agency's weekly report on ethanol production:

 

According to EIA data, ethanol production averaged 854,000 barrels per day (b/d) — or 35.87 million gallons daily. That is up 47,000 b/d from the week before and the highest rate since the week ending 6/29/2012. It is the largest week-to-week increase since October 2011. The four-week average for ethanol production stood at 819,000 b/d for an annualized rate of 12.56 billion gallons.

Stocks of ethanol stood at 17.8 million barrels. That is a 1.8% increase from last week.

Imports of ethanol showed zero b/d, down from last week.

 

Mike