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04-10-2012 06:03 AM - edited 04-10-2012 02:05 PM
At the close:
The July corn futures settled 15 1/2 cents lower at $6.25 3/4, while the Dec. corn futures settled 6 3/4 cents lower at $5.43 1/4. The May soybean contract price hit a 7-month high. The July soybean contract settled 7 1/2 cents lower at $14.27 1/4. The July wheat futures closed 17 cents lower at $6.32. The July soymeal futures finished $0.30 per short ton higher at $391.40. The July soyoil futures settled $0.25 higher at $57.35.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.63 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 203 points.
A broad-based sell-off contagion hit the ag commodities Tuesday, along with bearish USDA data released this morning.
One floor trader says, "The markets finally realized the USDA Reports were bearish for corn and wheat. With no change of how much corn we end the marketing year with, which is what the USDA says, that is not accepted very well.
"The soybeans tried to rally at mid-day. But, the market hit that magic $14.50 price and then selling came to the pit, buying had reached a vacuum, and boom! The market dropped 15 cents. And on the close, nobody wanted to buy and so we took it further down," he says.
The trade is now watching to see if corn is starting a trend lower. "If corn gets below the $6.25 level, I see it breaking 30, 40, or 50 more cents. Right now, I see us stuck in this rangebound pattern," he says.
Going forward, the trade is expected to track the U.S. planting weather and demand.
Another analyst sums up the market like this: "I think we are seeing some profit taking in the beans after the numbers today. The report today was bullish, but not a bullish shock and with the grains very soft it looks like beans are finally taking the gas. Seems to be spec selling, my farmers and commercials are quiet. Corn is seeing spec selling not only from the US unchanged ending stocks, but CONAB increasing corn in BRZ and Chinese farmers planting lots and lots of corn. Wheat should be better, but no big freeze in the plains so no real reason to get real excited I guess. It is the big mystery to me ."
The July corn futures trade 2 1/4 cents lower at $6.39. The May soybean contract price hit a 7-month high. The July soybean contract is trading 14 1/4 cents higher at $14.49. The July wheat futures are trading 4 1/2 cents higher at $6.53 1/2. The July soymeal futures are trading $4.70 per short ton higher at $395.80. The July soyoil futures are trading $0.58 higher at $57.68.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.04 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 97 points.
In early trading:
All corn contracts have dropped. Soybeans remain higher.
At the open:
The July corn futures trade 3 1/4 cents lower at $6.38 1/4, and the Dec. corn opened 1/2 of a cent higher at $5.50 3/4. The July soybean contract is trading 8 3/4 cents higher at $14.43 1/4. The July wheat futures are trading 1 3/4 cents higher at $6.51. The July soymeal futures are trading $1.70 per short ton higher at $392.80. The July soyoil futures are trading $0.61 higher at $57.72.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.73 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 53 points.
Are you fired up and ready to go? Let's go get 'em today! Whatever it is that you hope to accomplish, let's do it!!
Just ahead of the open, here are a few things the market will be chewing on:
--A 15-million bushel increase in U.S. soybean exports for this marketing year.
--Lower U.S. soybean stocks, lower world stocks and production.
--Fresh soybean demand from China today.
--Lower Brazilian soybean crop.
--Improved U.S. corn planting.
--USDA announces Tuesday that China bought 165,000 mt of U.S. soybeans for 2012-13 delivery.
--Brazil's CONAB agency released a smaller soybean production estimate at 65.6 mmt. That is maybe even more bullish than anything the USDA/WASDE Reports say.
New-crop corn is seen opening 2-5 cents higher and old-crop corn 3-5 cents lower, soybeans are called 10-15 cents higher and wheat 5-7 cents higher. The trade thinks the world carryover numbers are bullish.
U.S. Grain Stocks:
Corn=801 million bushels
Wheat=793 million bushels
Brazil soybeans=66.0 mmt
Brazil corn=62.0 mmt
Argentina soybeans=45.0 mmt
Argetina corn=21.5 mmt
World Carryover (The Bullish numbers this morning)
Corn=122.7 mmt vs. March at 124.5 mmt
Soybeans=55.5 mmt vs. March's 57.3 mmt
Wheat=206.3 mmt vs. the March 209.6 mmt
One analyst says, "The report is friendly to wheat and soybeans and perhaps bearish on the US side, but not the world. So, I am calling everything higher, beans about 10, wheat maybe 5, corn a couple higher. No shocks here.."
--Yet another analyst says the report could ultimately be bearish for the corn market, with the carryout left unchanged.
"Very surprising to see following last month’s supply/demand. It’s almost as if they (USDA) ignored the Grain Stocks report from the end of March. Kind of a joke really that WASDE doesn’t take into account what USDA says. Our bias was this corn carryout would approach pipeline around 700 million, but maybe they are setting a new pipeline at 800 million bushels. Definitely impossible to explain to a customer how USDA says we have less corn on supply, but WASDE shows no change," he says.
Soybeans, old crop supply got tighter as expected and the world carryouts tightened as well, due to lower crop estimates in South America, he says.
"Wheat was the most friendly, with another tightening of the old crop and also a 3.2 MMT reduction in the world carryout. So, look for the wheat to gain on corn, which will be supportive to corn. But, frankly, wheat is either too cheap compared to corn or corn is too expensive."
--Another analyst says, ""The unchanged level of old crop corn carry out indicates expectation of both higher wheat usage for feed in the near term and the expectation that early corn planting will blur the line between old crop and new crop supplies in late August and September. This should temper any near term price increases for corn, which is potentially good news for consumers.
However, the anticipated early corn harvest indicates early season corn planting at the expense of soybean acreage. When coupled with the projected reduction in South American soybean production it looks like the story will be in the soybean sector this season. Global coarse grain usage is again projected to be higher than global production, which seems to confirm the trend of increasingly inelastic demand for grains becoming even more dependent upon reliable supplies. Global weather patterns will be in the spotlight as a result."
--Yet another analyst says, "Corn carry over unchanged could lead to a higher open in sympathy with a drop in bean carry over but were poised to open higher but possibly fade the opening as there was no big surprise and were high on the year for prices. Last year we broke on corn and beans after we priced in the report on report day."
---Japan seeks 145,123 mt of milling wheat Tuesday.
--Iraq offers to buy 50,000 mt of wheat.
--Jordan offers to buy 100,000 mt of wheat.
--Origins are unknown on the above purchases.
Early calls: Subject to this morning's WASDE U.S. Grain Stocks and World Production Reports to be released at 7:30am central time. Overnight, corn is up 4 cents, soybeans are up 9 cents, and wheat 4 cents higher.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.
Crude Oil=$0.57 per barrel lower.
Wall Street=Seen trading higher as earnings season kicks in and all eyes are on Alcoa Tuesday.
Coming up at 7:30am, we will have the WASDE numbers and trade reaction.
More in a minute,
04-10-2012 06:57 AM
Mike, If you happen to be in NW Ohio, you are welcome here anytime......just 5 minutes off of I-75. I have not seen or heard of any planting in this area yet. Many will start next week I believe. A lot of ground worked up though.
04-10-2012 07:04 AM
Thanks for the invite. I would love to get there and see your farm. I need to get back that way and check up on docharing too. He and his brother are running that area south of you think? Let's keep this stop in mind. Otherwise, it sounds like you are ready for the planting season?
04-10-2012 07:12 AM
None of the garden is up, up right next to the house where the temperature probe is it was 33 but down in the bottoms it was white and as the sun came up it looked like the frost spread up the hill. Not good for the alfalfa, that is over a foot tall already!!
It was frosty on the windshield of the pickup this morning. Thats the second morning in a row for us.
04-10-2012 07:50 AM
Central Nebraska, (Eastern Custer County)
26 degrees when I got up this morning, with a very 'crisp' feeling to the air.
No heifers calving, so I went back in to warm up, and check on what Marketeye had to say.
A few guys talking about starting today, but that was last week, when it was 45 for the low, and 70 for the high, but I think a few will start, just to say they did.
If you ever tour central Nebraska, stop by, I'm not far from the windmill festival grounds. Sounds like they have Sammy Kershaw lined up already. A few years ago, I got to see Randy Travis, Kenny Rogers, & Sawyer Brown on the same weekend. The site has a map to give you an idea where this is.
04-10-2012 07:59 AM
the rose colored glasses have to come off sometime.............traders are acting like its a surprise...........
read the third paragraph again.............
might finish corn today.............
old crop corn is too cheap.............old crop soya are probably too cheap............new crop soya are buying acres and if new crop corn doesnt participate, then old crop corn will be worth something next summer............