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Floor Talk April 11 (Report Day)

[ Edited ]

At the close:

At the close, the May corn futures settled 1/2¢ lower at $3.66 1/2, while December futures finished 1/4¢ lower at $3.90 1/2. May soybean futures finished 2 1/2¢ lower at $9.39 1/4. May wheat futures closed 4 1/2¢ higher at $4.33 1/4. May soy meal futures settled $0.20 per short ton higher at $309.30. May soy oil futures closed $0.28 lower at 31.07¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.21 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 45 points lower.

 

Mike

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At 11am:

USDA SAYS:

 

U.S. Ending Stocks

 

Corn=  2.320 billion bushels vs. the trade's expectations of 2.345 billion bushel.

 

Soybeans=  445 million bushels vs. the trade's expectations of 447 million bushels.

 

Wheat= 1.159 billion bushels vs. the trade's expectations of 1.152 billion bushels.

 

 

WORLD PRODUCTION

 

Brazil Corn=  93.5 million metric tons vs. the trade's expectations of 92.5 million metric tons.

 

Argentina Corn= 38.5 million metric tons vs. the trade's expectations of 37.8 million metric tons.

 

Soybeans

Brazil= 111.0 mmt. vs. the trade's expectations of 110.0 mmt.

 

Argentina= 56.0 mmt.  vs. the trade's expectations of 56.0 mmt.

 

TRADE REACTION:

 

--Jack Scoville, The PRICE Futures Group’s, Senior Market Analyst, says that there is nothing in the US data that is really out of line with expectations.
“Corn actually is a little below guesses and beans dead on.  Wheat a little higher.  But the world data is big, especially for beans, and I think that is driving the markets lower,” Scoville says. 
He adds, “The beans and corn increased in both Arg and BRZ is the ticket to the price action here, and the big beans are the big thing.  World ending stocks up a lot, reflecting slightly underestimated production in the U.S. and the big jumps and Brazil and Argentina and perhaps a reduction in demand maybe from China.”

 

---Jason Roose, U.S. Commodities, says that this report means more price pressure for ag commodities.
“No real big surprises on today's monthly report. But, what this report continues to do is confirm that there is no shortage of grain. Larger South America corn and bean crop increasing the world ending stocks for the grains adding pressure to the prices,” Roose says.

 

--Sal Gilbertie, Teucrium Trading, agrees that today’s WASDE has provided another confirmation that South American crop production is enormous, most especially corn and soybean harvests in Brazil and Argentina.
“Global wheat supplies are at record levels. Bottom line is that there are currently plenty of supplies to meet what is still record, and growing, demand for all grains across the globe.”
Gilbertie adds, “Northern Hemisphere farmers are just getting started with spring planting, and they are no doubt keeping a close watch on South American exports, which seem likely to eat into U.S. export markets over the course of the next few months. All eyes now turn to planting weather in the weeks ahead.”

 

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At 9AM:

In early trading, the May corn futures are 3/4¢ higher at $3.67, while December futures are 1/4¢ lower at $3.90. May soybean futures are 4¢ lower at $9.37. May wheat futures are 1/4¢ higher at $4.29. May soy meal futures are $1.50 per short ton lower at $307.60. May soy oil futures are $0.12 lower at 31.23¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.17 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 37 points lower.

 

Mike

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Soybeans were higher overnight while corn was little changed and wheat was lower ahead of the WASDE report due out at noon in Washington. Beans gained 2 cents, corn lost a tick and wheat was down about 2 cents. WASDE is expected to forecast old-crop bean and corn carryout higher, which isn't a surprise. Also not surprising is that the USDA will probably raise its soybean production forecast for Brazil, following all the local and private consultants who have done the same in the past month. Look for a number around 110 million metric tons, up from 108 million estimated last year. 


Here's what happened overnight:

 

Brent Crude Oil = 0.1% higher.  

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil = 0.1% higher.

Dollar = down 0.2%.

Wall Street = U.S. stock futures higher in pre-market trading.

World Markets = Global stocks lower as oil prices fluctuate.