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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,129
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Floor Talk April 17

[ Edited ]

After the close:

USDA says 17% of the U.S. corn crop is planted. Are you surprised it's not faster? Or, do you think that is about right?

 

Illinois is at 41%, Iowa was 5%. But, I thought the trade was expecting a faster pace than that. What is your response to this?

 

Yet another analyst says the planting number is within trade expectations. "The market will switch back to trading the nice weather coming up. So, by April 29th, we could be looking at an exceptionaly higher planting rating. This high planting rate will keep the market down. We saw this in 2010, unfortunately, that year because the hot summer. We just have to take this one day at a time. But, with so many acres (96 million) expected, that makes this high planting rating that much more impressive, " he says.

 

 

Mike

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At the close:

The July corn futures settled 6 cents lower at $6.07 1/4. The July soybean contract finished 7 1/4 cents higher at $14.31 1/2. The July wheat futures ended 1 cent lower at $6.20 1/4. The July soymeal futures closed $3.40 per short ton higher at $397.30. The July soyoil futures are trading $0.11 higher at $56.16. 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.31 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 189 points.

 

One analyst says, "The weekly crop progress report comes out after the close today, one day delayed. Tuesday's gains came off the “turnaround Tuesday” effect, with the outside markets up measurably sparking short covering in grains. We expect a post-USDA crop report low to  be posted before month end. "

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

The July corn futures trade 2 1/4 cents higher at $6.15 1/2. The July soybean contract is trading 11 cents higher at $14.35 1/4. The July wheat futures are trading 8 cents higher at $6.29 1/4. The July soymeal futures are trading $3.30 per short ton higher at $397.20. The July soyoil futures are trading $0.38 higher at $56.43. 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.63 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 167 points.

 

One analyst says the farm markets are reversing from Monday's lower trade on lower South American crop estimates.
"Monday's grain markets were pressured by weather related events, specifically rain in the Corn Belt and portions of the Winter Wheat Belt. Forecasted temperatures remain cool in the Southern Plains for the winter wheat crop. On Tuesday, the soybean market reversed Monday's trend reacting positively on talk of a lower Argentinean soybean crop," he says.

 

Mike

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At the open:

The July corn futures trade 1 cent higher at $6.14 1/2. The July soybean contract is trading 11 1/4 cents higher at $14.35 1/2. The July wheat futures are trading 4 3/4 cents higher at $6.26. The July soymeal futures are trading $2.90 per short ton higher at $396.80. The July soyoil futures are trading $0.44 higher at $56.49. 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.81 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 131 points.

 

Mike

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At 8:50am:

USDA announces Tuesday that 225,000 mt of U.S. soybeans were sold to an 'unknown' buyer. Half of the beans are for this year and half next year's crop. Now, there is some feed for the 'bulls.

 

Mike

------------

At 8am:

There is talk that China may be sniffing around to purchase more U.S. corn.

 

Mike

-------

At 7:25am:

--Japan seeks 139,237 mt of milling wheat Tuesday.

---China's April soybean imports are estimated at 4.63 mmt, down from March, CNGOIC, China's Information Center says.

--U.K. whest exports for February were up 73% from the same month in 2011, according to the Dow Jones Newswire.

 

 

Mike

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At 6:45am:

Early calls: Corn 1-2 cents higher, soybeans 9-11 cents higher, and wheat 4-6 cents higher.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.
Crude Oil=$0.85 per barrel higher.
Dollar=Lower.
Wall Street=Seen trading higher ahead of more earnings reports.

World Markets=Asia/Pacific stocks are lower, while Europe's stocks are higher.

 


 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,129
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk April 17

[ Edited ]

FYI: Just spoke to some media cohorts in Brazil this morning.  My friends at Gazeta do Povo newspaper say that it's "The Year of the Corn" in Brazil. They say Brazil's second corn crop (Safrhina) is increasing 30% over last year. Even at a time when prices are falling, the Brazilian farmer can make more off of corn than wheat. With an average corn yield of 60 to 67 bushels per acre, production could reach 28.8 mmt this year vs. 22.0 mmt a year ago.

See the chart below and here is some interpretation to help you understand the table. I find this corn planting increase quite impressive.

corn=Milho
wheat=Trigo
Produtividade=Yield
area=hectares
producao=production in millions of tons

 

The title reads: The second corn crop of the season 2011/12 is expected to grow 30.8% in volume in comparison with the numbers a year ago

 

info_caminhos_160412.jpg

Senior Contributor
p-oed Farmer
Posts: 398
Registered: ‎05-04-2010
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Re: Floor Talk April 17

Mike..... Haven't they been talking that Brazil corn was going to be up all year?.....p-oed

This information is worth what you payed for it...... :~)
Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,129
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk April 17

Yes. Nobody really had a handle on how much higher. But, it has been talked about. Where you don't want to get lulled to sleep is the yield average. Why? Because Brazil can ramp up area really quickly. Plus, I'm sure the multinational companies will be glad to help the Brazilian corn farmer up his/her yield average eventually as well. Don't you think?

 

Mike

Veteran Contributor
Mike central IA
Posts: 119
Registered: ‎07-05-2011
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Re: Floor Talk April 17

Sounds to me like less wheat. Here we go robbing Peter to pay Paul again. Less cheap wheat for feed, more corn needed for feed.

Senior Contributor
p-oed Farmer
Posts: 398
Registered: ‎05-04-2010
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Re: Floor Talk April 17

Not sure as to why there yields are so low..... Just might not be anything they can do about it with the heat?...... You have to believe that they use all of the tricks that we do?...... p-oed

This information is worth what you payed for it...... :~)
Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,129
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk April 17

They don't use them all yet. But, I bet they will.

 

Mike

Senior Contributor
NDf
Posts: 329
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: Floor Talk April 17

Mike I would think that the most limiting factors aganist high yields for corn in brazil would be the climate and soil types, I The brazilian farmer is pretty modern so I would think they are already up to date on growing corn.  Also they are talking about second crop "sarfina" corn  which is grown during the dry season down there so the amount of rain will be the most important factor.

Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,570
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: Floor Talk April 17

Question is.....are they going to export the corn or use it to produce ethanol?

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,129
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk April 17

They use sugarcane to make ethanol. So they either feed or export their corn. Brazil is raising more hogs, poultry and cattle. Most of their cattle graze though, so it's feed for the hogs and chickens.

 

Mike