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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,182
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Floor Talk April 2

[ Edited ]

At the close:

The May futures corn contract closed 3/4 of a cent lower at $6.41. The May soybean futures contract finished 3 cents higher at $13.94. May wheat futures closed 9 cents higher at $6.73 per bushel. The May soymeal futures closed $1.50 per short ton lower at $417.80. The May soyoil futures closed $0.01 higher at $50.44.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.08 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 77 points higher.

 

Jeff Coleman, The Trean Group, sums up today's market like this:  "What started out to be a positive “turnaround Tuesday” for corn just wasn’t meant to be. The big three which were all higher overnight and opened higher for the day trading session, just couldn’t hold the positive vibe and continue to rally. May wheat was strong defying the downward pressure of corn futures closing up 6.75 cents on the day at $670.75 per bushel. May soybeans also fought off the bear pressure from corn to close 3.25 into positive territory at $1394 per bushel. The corn market, which seemed to find support overnight, traded almost 7 cents lower on the day but did rally back to close just under unchanged. Is this good for the corn bulls? Not likely as it seemed that there was some margin calls that caused yet more long position liquidation in corn futures. And as I mentioned in previous commentary, the US is still importing corn which leads us to believe that corn stocks really have not, nor will be, under duress this year. Watch out for the old crop/ new crop spreads in the corn market. They should become even more volatile as we enter the planting/growing season. Consider using CSO’S (calendar spread options) to hedge risk as this fairly new trading contract has become quite popular and useful. Corn should be fun to watch in the overnight trading session as it has become sort of a crapshoot when it comes to picking direction in this market."

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

The May futures corn contract is trading 5 cents lower at $6.37. The May soybean futures contract is trading 2 cents lower at $13.88. May wheat futures are trading 4 cents higher at $6.68 per bushel. The May soymeal futures are trading $1.40 per short ton higher at $399.90. The May soyoil futures are trading $0.46 lower at $49.60.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.25 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 99 points higher.

 

One analyst says, "We started the day with 'turn around Tuesday' or profit taking from Monday's big break. Traders still want to sell rallies, ahead of next Wednesday's USDA monthly crop report. That Report is expected to show last Thursday's quarterly stocks increase to the ending stocks."

 

Mike

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At 10:30am:

Soybeans are up 3 cents, wheat is up 4 cents, while corn is trading unchanged, basis the May contracts.

 

Mike

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At the open:

The May futures corn contract is trading 9 cents higher at $6.51. The May soybean futures contract is trading 6 cents higher at $13.96. May wheat futures are trading 8 cents higher at $6.72 per bushel. The May soymeal futures are trading $3.30 per short ton highe at $401.80. The May soyoil futures are trading $0.04 lower at $50.02.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.72 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 84 points higher.

 

Mike

------------

At 8:45am:

 

AgResource noted in a morning wire to customers that yesterday's record corn trade volume could send signals to the fundamentals of the market

"Thursday's CBOT corn volume was the 2nd largest on record at just over 655,000 contracts while Monday's preliminary
volume was also huge at 595,940 contracts. This 2 day volume of over 1,250,000 contracts (6.25 Bil Bu or nearly half a normal year of corn production) suggests that the market has adjusted to the new larger NASS March 1st stocks
total and the market will now look to new fundamental drivers."

 

Mike

--------

At 7:00am

 

Early calls:  Corn is seen 5-7 cents higher, soybeans 10-12 cents higher, and wheat 6-8 cents higher.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.
Crude Oil=$0.04 per barrel lower
Dollar=Higher.
Wall Street=Seen opening higher.

World=Asia/Pacific stocks were higher and after a four-day holiday, Europe's stocks are higher.

 

Green arrows for everybody!

 

Rough Rice+1.15%
Wheat+1.09%
Soybean Meal+1.03%
Corn+0.90%
Soybeans+0.74%
Canola+0.63%
Soybean Oil+0.20%
Oats-1.66%

 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,182
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk April 2

It looks like the blowback from last week's USDA Report is acting like a viral infection. It is spreading amongst all sectors of the ag world. I pieced together some thoughts from others on this subject. Here's what I came up with.

 

USDA Data Still Smells

 

I'm still searching for answers to the question of where is this market going. I'll keep digging.

 

 

Mike

Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,593
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: Floor Talk April 2

Could major export news be coming soon?   

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,182
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk April 2

roarintiger1,

 

I wouldn't be surprised. We'll get our first glance at fresh sales at 8am. Plus, overnight a South Korea buyer was seeking 140,000 tons of corn and 555,000 tons of soymeal. So, I wouldn't be surprised if we see some buying on this huge dip.

 

Mike

Advisor
rayjenkins
Posts: 687
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk April 2

Be careful reading too much into this export business...

 

More than likely, it was business that was going to get done sooner or later, and since the market created the opportunity, the export buyers have decided to extend coverage.....note that most of this is for mid-summer and later, not for the next 60 days or so..

 

since the export buyers run such lengthy supply chains, they are now working on the end of marketing year slots....

 

still, good to see the biz rather than not....

 

Ray J

Senior Contributor
luisvieira
Posts: 242
Registered: ‎04-24-2012
0

Re: Floor Talk April 2

In Brazil, shipping tend to grow in April. Last year, the largest part of corn and soybeans were exported in April. This year, however, the amount may be smaller due to logistic chaos and new trucker laws.