04-23-2013 05:45 AM - edited 04-23-2013 02:04 PM
At the close:
The July futures corn contract closed 9 cents lower at $6.14. The July soybean futures contract finished 5 cents lower at $13.58. July wheat futures ended 7 cents lower at $6.95 per bushel. The July soymeal futures closed $0.20 per short ton lower at $397.90. The July soyoil futures finished $0.18 lower at $48.41.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.13 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 118 points higher.
One analyst says, "We appear to be looking ahead and not at the data from overnight. The weather is supposed to get better next week and this is hitting the new crop corn hard. Wheat is looking at better weather here, although there are already losses. But, the chances for more damage will drop. Nearby beans higher because there are no beans moving. The rest of it seems to be spec selling and nothing more, and based mostly on the improving weather as noted. Kind of a disappointing day, I would say. I think many were expecting some stronger price action based on the crop progress, like a record low for corn, and the wheat condition. But, it has not really developed that way, at least not yet. And, I think the forecasts are about the only reason I can think of for that. The China economic data hurts demand ideas, but the market moves today seem more weather related than demand related. Overall, ideas of weakening demand hurt the markets."
The July futures corn contract is trading 5 cents lower at $6.18. The July soybean futures contract is trading 1 cent higher at $13.65. July wheat futures are trading 7cents lower at $6.95 per bushel. The July soymeal futures are trading $1.70 per short ton higher at $399.90. The July soyoil futures are trading $0.11 lower at $48.48.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.07 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 146 points higher.
USDA announces Tuesday that China buys 392,000 tons of U.S. soybeans for 2013-14 delivery. Wow!
At the open:
The July futures corn contract is trading 3 cents lower at $6.20. The Julysoybean futures contract is trading 1 cent higher at $13.65. Julywheat futures are trading 8 cents lower at $6.94 per bushel. The July soymeal futures are trading $1.80 per short ton higher at $399.80. The July soyoil futures are trading $0.29 lower at $48.29.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.96 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 89 points higher.
The trade wants to know if the corn market will rally today, due to the slow planting progress. USDA says U.S. corn planting is 4% complete vs. 16% five-year average. And get this, next week's planting historical average is 33%. Will we come anywhere close to that number?
News or Noise:
--Russia's grain exports for the current marketing year are down 40%.
--Ukraine's grain exports are up 19% on-year.
--STATS Canada will release its Planting Intentions Report tomorrow. Here is a preview, according to the Dow Jones Newswire:
2013 Acreage Acreage Intention Seeded in 2012/13
All Wheat 23.325 - 25.326 23.825
Durum 4.100 - 5.100 4.679
Oats 2.595 - 3.300 2.854
Barley 7.500 - 8.000 7.405
Flaxseed 0.915 - 1.300 0.980
Canola 20.000 - 21.251 21.531
Soybeans 4.500 - 4.795 4.152
Corn 3.400 - 3.575 3.535
Peas 3.200 - 3.500 3.340
Summerfallow 4.399 - 6.000 4.485
What do you think about the corn, soybean and wheat acreage estimates? Are they what you thought they would be? Oats continues to fall in acreage everywhere, it seems. Who is ever going to grow oats, as both the U.S. and Canada plant less and less?
And we're back. I don't know if this means anything to the markets, but I just took my sister in-law to the Des Moines airport and it was snowing along the way.
Early calls: Corn is seen 3-5cents lower, soybeans mixed, and wheat 6-8 cents lower.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading lower.
Crude Oil=$0.82 per barrel lower.
Wall Street=Seen opening mixed. China's report of soft factory growth has the market concerned.
World=Asia/Pacific stocks were lower and Europe's stocks are higher.
More in a minute,
04-23-2013 05:51 AM
Welcome back --- huh -- huh -- dam it's been so long -- i forgot your name --- LOL Oh yeah it's Mike --- isn't it ?
BTW I bet Snow at this time of the year in Des Moines is just Beautiful !!!
04-23-2013 06:04 AM - edited 04-23-2013 06:18 AM
I changed my name, just to throw you off a bit. Not a lot of snow sticking to the ground. A few flakes that's all. But the last time I checked the calendar, it did say April 23rd. On Monday, I took a picture of these Iowa sweetcorn seeds that have been in the ground for two weeks. You can see the seed, in the forefront, that has died. And the seed in the back is still growing.
04-23-2013 06:35 AM
Mike, I am glad you are back. You do a good job of keeping us informed... I am very confused by the new crop corn market, their is no possible way we will plant 97 million acres of corn this year and yet the corn market continues to fall? I know corn exports are down but it seems as though new crop prices should be going higher. Did somebody fall asleep at the wheel?
Mike thanks again for all you do.
04-23-2013 06:44 AM
Welcome back, glad to know you are watching the market again. Maybe next time you could give us notice when and how long you will be gone. I have confidence the market will behave when you are watching!
04-23-2013 07:00 AM
Blacksand -- here's what I think -- for what's it's worth = 0 -- But heres the deal --We are just to dang good at what we do ! It's only April 23 rd --- The markets know that we are the only ones that can ull a rabbit out our azzes when need be . You give us just one week of great planting weather here and well be 75 to 85 percent done .
Now if it was May 23rd-- that would be different .
04-23-2013 07:12 AM
Good point ECIN, but looking at the big picture with Minnesota and the Dakota's still shoveling snow I just can't see USDA's corn acre projections achievable this year. If it don't rain here tonight we could be back in the field by the weekend.
04-23-2013 07:15 AM
I don't' think the market is paying attention enough to this delay planting. In other years we have had chances to get some field work done in the spring. There has been very, very little done around me. Its been to cold to spray winter annuals, even the custom spray outfits have been sitting still since its just been to cold. North of me around Hiway 1 in Nebraska yesterday they got 2.5 inches of rain. Its starting to pond now in the terrace channels. There was some anhydrous that need to be put on, that isn't on yet. As a whole we where suppose to plant 97 million acres of corn??? I question the possibility of that, Not because its late but because there is a whole lot of field prep that is needed yet. I need to spray wheat, then alfala, then if the weeds are coming in the soybean ground I'm going to spray that first. can't let marestail and company get ahead of you. Then I'll start on the corn. the only good thing about this cold weather is that the weeds haven't been growing much, if at all.
I DO think farmers are going to push this corn planting a little to hard and I do think that planting in mud is never a good thing. If I can I'm going to wait for decent conditions to plant corn. according to the long range we will get them buts its going to be later in May.
04-23-2013 07:35 AM
Thanks for the kind words. It's good to be back. I hope I can inject some juice for the corn market. It feels like it should be going higher. But, maybe the weak exports are trumping the weather.
04-23-2013 07:37 AM
I appreciate your daily support. It's shaping up to be another interesting planting season. My grass needs to be mowed, but the morning and overnight air remains very chilly. Odd bedfellows; tall grass and freezing overnight temps.