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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,218
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Floor Talk April 24

[ Edited ]

At 10:15am:

--USDA announces Wednesday that an 'unknown' bought 116,000 mt of U.S. soybeans for 2013-14.

 

Mike

---------

At 10am:

 

At mid-session, the July futures corn contract is trading 4 cents higher at $6.18. The July soybean futures contract is trading 11 cents lower at $13.47. July wheat futures are trading 4 cents lower at $6.91 per bushel. The July soymeal futures are trading $4.80 per short ton higher at $393.10. The July soyoil futures are trading $0.06 higher at $48.47.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.90 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 7 points lower.

 

Sorry this post is delayed. I'm blaming it on the furlough of air traffic controllers.

 

By the way, no real surprises in STATS Canada Planting Intentons Report..

 

Mike

Advisor
Red Steele
Posts: 4,668
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: Floor Talk April 24

What gives with the air traffic controller situation? Are the managers that poor that they cannot come up with a plan to cut 2% without cutting out men actually in the booths, manning the store?  Maybe its an indication that the government system isn't working.

 

My bet is that this is all orchestrated to get the public riled up. First the AIC tried to cut out the whitehouse tours for high school kids, and then my money says they are trying any other visual means to make a point.

"Peace on earth would mean the end of civilization as we know it" Joseph Heller
Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,218
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk April 24

Red Steele,

 

Don't you know, it all comes back to agriculture. The FAA took out some May corn calls that didn't pan out. So, they have to trim staff to maintain budget goals. There's talk they are looking into selling soybean puts, with the idea that planting delays will cause a switch of 3.0 million acres of corn to beans. Now, what do you think of that spin?

 

:manvery-happy:

 

Mike

Senior Advisor
kraft-t
Posts: 10,784
Registered: ‎05-10-2010
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Re: Floor Talk April 24

You ought to run for president and then everything would run perfectly. You might have to pay taxes though

Veteran Contributor
Whitesand_Farms
Posts: 102
Registered: ‎05-31-2010
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Re: Floor Talk April 24

 Good morning Mike, I'm kind of curious what will happen with Canada's planting intentions in a month when no seed will have gone in the ground yet lol. Looking out my window and seeing 2-3 feet of snow pack that has to melt yet along with the record flooding they are predicting it will be atleast a month before it dries up enough to get in the field and that's with ideal weather. Which is something of a rarity these days, it is almost May and farmers aren't even talking about fieldwork yet actually there is more talk of not seeding this year. I can guarantee there will be atleast 5-10 million more acres of summerfallow and more barley and oats with alot less wheat and canola. Not that my comments will make a difference to any traders but I just figured others should know. Heck if its freezing in Kansas it's not warmer up in Canada lol.

Frequent Contributor
kyjlong
Posts: 36
Registered: ‎05-12-2010
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Re: Floor Talk April 24

Yep. Plan was to reduce Gov't functions where it would produce the largest complaints. Agencies like the Park service first found ways to take the decrease without impacting visitors. They were told wrong, all cuts have to be in customer service areas in an attempt to make it appear that Congress is responsible for Johnny not getting to wee the White House on the spring school trip to Washington. Oh, and by the way make travel more difficult, those traveling are notorious for making lots of noise when they suffer inconveniences. It's working.

Advisor
giolucas
Posts: 1,149
Registered: ‎06-25-2010
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Re: Floor Talk April 24

Are we not tired of all this political crap? I want to make money.  Tell me WTF will happen with the grains......

Senior Contributor
Longcreekfarms
Posts: 427
Registered: ‎08-07-2012
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Re: Floor Talk April 24

I'd kinda like to wee the whitehouse :smileywink:
Veteran Advisor
Shaggy98
Posts: 4,224
Registered: ‎06-19-2011
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Re: Floor Talk April 24

Gio, I will tell you what will happen. It has been going on as long as all of us have been farming. Grains will go up and grains will come down. How each of us acts to or reacts from these price movements, well there is your answer to the "I Want To Make Money" comment. Not much information there, but the info is only worth what we pay for it.
Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 4,111
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
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Re: Floor Talk April 24

MONDAY, APRIL 22, 2013
Van Trump
 
Morning Summary: Globally traders are trying to digest the latest Chinese economic data, which unfortunately came in less than expected. The preliminary reading of the HSBC purchasing managers' index for China for April came in at 50.5, down from 51.6 in March, and below the 51.5 reading most traders were anticipating. This along with some other recent data is causing several analyst to re-think the Chinese economic rebound. Here at home US housing data will be in the spotlight this morning. If you remember, the January "New Home Sales" data posted a new four-year high, then in February the number stumbled and fell back by close to -5%. The macro bulls are hoping this was simply a glitch on the radar screen and today's numbers will show renewed strength in "New Home Sales." Further indicating a turn-around in the US housing market.
Interesting to note the average price of a new home has now rebounded to $246,800... not that far behind the March 2007 high of $262,600
USDA reports "planting" for major crops more than 15 million acres behind our traditional pace. Corn planting at just 4% complete, double last weeks 2%, but still well below our 5-year average of 16% and last years pace of 26% planted at this juncture. Below are a few additional highlights from the report:
  • Several states still with ZERO corn planted, including large production states like: CO, IA, NE, MI, MN, ND, SD, WI.
  • IL just 1% planted vs. 56% planted last year; IN 1% vs. 43% last year; OH 1% vs. 34% last year; KS 5% vs. 30% last year.
  • Barley 23% planted vs. 24% on average vs. 43% planted last year.
  • Cotton 10% planted vs. five-year average of 14% vs. 17% planted last year.
  • Oats 41% planted vs. 59% on average vs. 79% planted last year.
  • Rice 34% planted vs. 44% on average vs. 65% planted last year.
  • Sorghum now 25% planted vs. five-year average of 24% vs. 26% last year.
  • Spring Wheat 10% planted vs 24% on average vs. 52% last year at this time.
  • Winter wheat 8% headed vs. 19% headed on average vs. 42% headed last year at this juncture.
  • Winter wheat conditions once again got worse. This time we essentially had 1% of the crop that had been rated "good" and 1% of the crop that had been rated "fair" both move to the "very poor" category. We now have 33% of the crop in the "Poor-to-Very Poor" category. Last year just 10% rated P/VP.
Corn producers seem somewhat stumped by the continuing downhill price action, especially considering the ongoing rain and cooler than normal temps. The trade however seems to be looking past the current US weather concerns, and is banking on the US producers ability to get the crop in the ground. In typical fashion, I am starting to think the market could be getting out over the tips of it's skis just a bit. Meaning we could be getting a little ahead of ourselves to the downside in new-crop. Yes, I certainly understand the longer-term "supply and demand" side of the equation, along with the implications associated with a 150-plus yield crop and sub $4.00 corn. The concern however that I currently have is that a large majority of the crop is still sitting in the bag, and there are a ton of weather related "wild-cards" being added to the deck each day. I am certainly NOT saying to lift any hedges or re-own previous cash sales, but investing a little revenue in some type of bullish "short dated option" strategy (just-in-case) might be a smart play here (see yesterday's "Special Report" for more details).
Producers however should be careful getting all bulled up simply on the planting delays. Keep in mind back in 2009 we were only 5% planted at this juncture and ended up with the highest ever national yield of 164.7 bushels per acre. A yield anywhere near that this time around would produce a crop of more than 14.5 billion bushels and an extremely burdensome carryout closer to 3.0 billion bushels. You don't need me to tell you where corn prices will be in this scenario...sub-$4 is almost a guarantee. In 2009, with just over a 13 billion bushel crop, prices in September fell to below $3.00 per bushel. Point is "IF" we get a weather related rally, be smart and use it wisely!!!
Soybean demand out of China continues to be questioned as recent import data shows the October-March (past six-months) numbers down close to 9% compared to last years pace. Assuming April continues along its current path, Chines soybean demand will soon be down double digits (more than 10% vs. last year). There is talk now circulating in the trade that the latest USDA estimate of 61MMT's is still too high. Several sources now throwing out numbers between 56-59MMT's. Keep in mind China's March soybean imports were 20% lower than last year. Brazil's imports of beans into China are thought to be down well over 50% compared to last year. US beans going to China are thought to be down over 12% compared to last year.
Interesting to note that Chinese soymeal exports were up close to 60% from the previous month and up close to 295% on the year. The talk is China's soymeal demand has drastically fallen as the recent bird-flu epidemic has killed off a large portion of the countries poultry demand.
Wheat data for the month of March showing Chinese imports up 15%. The bulls are also excited to see US SRW conditions slipping a little more than expected. Most in the trade continue to believe the HRW crop will come in around 750 to 850 million just depending on the extent of the freeze damage. On the flip side the bears are saying the US window of opportunity to export wheat is quickly closing as Russian wheat offers start to become even cheaper further out. It looks like from July forward it will be tough to export much US wheat.
Ukraine's agriculture ministry said it may lift a cap on 2012-13 exports of the grain enforced after a disappointing harvest last year.
Near-term the trade will be digesting the latest weekly USDA numbers, but will also be chewing on the first acreage estimates of the year scheduled to be released by Stats Canada tomorrow. I have to believe the Canadian acreage numbers will come down since the last round of estimates were released. There has simply been too much rain and snow. I also believe the USDA weekly corn planting progress numbers are only going to get worse as well. Nearby its going to be all about the dry and warmer windows of opportunity. If they hit in a timely fashion, like many weather sources are thinking, I suspect the markets continue pushing lower. However, should these windows of planting opportunities be less than advertised, the trade will start to get much more nervous and price premiums will quickly be added. Maybe only temporarily, so don't hesitate making catchup sales on any weather related rallies.
60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."