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04-24-2014 07:02 AM - edited 04-24-2014 01:41 PM
At the close:
The July corn futures contract settled 2 1/4 cents lower at $5.07. The Dec. corn futures finished 1 3/4 cents lower at $5.02. The July soybean futures contract closed 5 1/4 cents higher at $14.70. The Nov. soybean futures finished 3 1/2 cents higher at $12.31. July wheat futures closed 13 3/4 cents higher at $6.96 per bushel. The July soymeal futures contract ended $1.70 per short ton higher at $470.70. The July soyoil futures closed $0.08 higher at $42.86.
In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil is $0.23 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 71 points higher.
At mid-session, the July corn futures contract is trading 1 cent lower at $5.08. The Dec. corn futures are trading 1/4 of a cent lower at $5.04. The July soybean futures contract is 2 cents lower at $14.62. The Nov. soybean futures are trading unchanged at $12.27. July wheat futures are 13 3/4 cents higher at $6.96 per bushel. The July soymeal futures contract is trading $0.30 per short ton higher at $469.30. The July soyoil futures are trading $0.12 lower at $42.66.
In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil is $0.23 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 22 points higher.
Jack Scoville, PRICE Futures Group vice-president, sizes up today's market activity like this: "It is a very quiet trade except for Wheat which remains a weather play. No real rain in the forecasts for the southwest Great Plains and the Wheat there will get stressed. Also talking some heat out that way for the next few days to stress the crop even more. Ukraine is a little hotter which does not hurt bullish ideas here at all. But beans and corn with nothing really going on. The price action for both not all that positive given the strength in wheat. Export sales really bad for beans, just what the market wanted to see. Plus, the July-Nov bean spread is breaking and testing support. I am telling producers to sell into rallies and to start to get some pricing done," he says.
Regarding soybean spreads, I just got a note from the floor with this notice:
"May option expiration this Friday....this market is setting up for a huge move....own gamma"
At the open:
At the open, the July corn futures contract is trading 2 cents higher at $5.11. The Dec. corn futures are trading 2 cents higher at $5.07. The July soybean futures contract is 5 cents higher at $14.70. The Nov. soybean futures are trading 3/4 of a cent higher at $12.28. July wheat futures are 11 cents higher at $6.94 per bushel. The July soymeal futures contract is trading $2.10 per short ton lower at $471.10. The July soyoil futures are trading $0.18 lower at $42.60. In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil is $0.23 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 15 points higher.
USDA Weekly Export Sales Report:
Corn=1.001 million tons, vs. the trade's expectations of 300,000-800,000 metric tons
Soybeans= 119,000 tons, vs. the trade's expectations of (250,000)-100,000 metric tons
Wheat=610,800 tons, vs. the trade's expectations of 100,000-450,000 metric tons
Early calls: Corn is seen 1-2 cents higher, soybeans mixed, and wheat 8-10 cents higher.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mixed.
Brent Crude Oil=$0.23 per barrel lower.
Wall Street=Seen higher, with more company earnings reports.
World Markets=Europe stocks were higher, Asia/Pacific stocks lower.
More in a minute,
04-24-2014 08:06 AM - edited 04-24-2014 08:07 AM
StatsCan released Canadian acreage estimates Thursday, according to the Dow Jones Newswire:
The following table is a recap of Statistics Canada's acreage report for the period ended March 31, 2014. Pre-report expectations are provided for comparison purposes. Figures are in million acres. StatsCan PreReport StatsCan Mar 2014 Estimates 2013/14 Canola 19.801 20.000 - 22.000 19.936 All Wheat 24.936 23.500 - 25.200 26.257 Durum 4.835 4.500 - 4.900 4.965 Barley 6.310 6.100 - 7.200 7.083 Flaxseed 1.715 1.100 - 1.500 1.035 Oats 3.188 2.900 - 3.600 3.168 Peas 3.975 3.300 - 3.800 3.285 Lentils 2.860 2.500 - 2.800 2.393
What do you think of the numbers? All Wheat acreage too high? Plus, I thought the Canadians were planting more corn? Where are those numbers?
04-24-2014 08:09 AM
This table shows corn acreage:
Following is Statistics Canada's 2014/15 (Aug/Jul) estimates of principal field crop area report. The figures are as of March 31, 2014, in thousands of acres. Source: Statistics Canada. -------acres------- March Actual 2014 2013 Barley 6,311 7,083 Canola 19,801 19,936 Corn for grain 3,369 3,689 Flaxseed 1,715 1,035 Lentils 2,860 2,393 Oats 3,188 3,168 Dry field peas 3,975 3,285 Soybeans 5,264 4,519 Summerfallow 3,370 3,875 All wheat 24,936 26,257 Durum wheat 4,835 4,965 Spring wheat 17,978 19,043 Winter wheat 1,954 2,008
04-24-2014 08:21 AM
There is probably going to be a reduction in winter wheat, soft red mostly, in Ontario as the stands are rather poor in many fields this spring.
Have heard the number of at least 200,000 acres will get the Roundup treatment.
Also indications corn area will shrink some more to the advantage of soys.
Perhaps the reduced wheat area will replace the corn shrinkage.
04-24-2014 08:24 AM
I am not from the west but have heard that there is a move to more canola out there at the expense of wheat.
I did notice that guesses were higher than Stats Can figures for canola.
04-24-2014 09:28 AM - edited 04-24-2014 10:02 AM
Stats Canada kind of surprised some folks this morning with a lower canola acreage than thought. It's even a bit lower than last year, when all the conventional wisdom was saying probably a million more acres. I suspect soys are taking some acres from canola, especially in Manitoba and eastern Saskatchewan. Farmers are looking at lower cost of production, and with a shortage of N soys will take acres from canola. Canola seed is getting too expensive relative to the risk of growing it.
But .... I might be wrong! Market is yawning. If it was 'really' expecting 20 mil acres of canola, it isn't showing in the price movement. At least not now. I expect it will. The canola market has a tendancy to have a 2 to 3 day delayed response time to news or even on spreads against soyoil/beans.
But DYODD!! My ideas are worth what you paid
04-24-2014 10:45 AM - edited 04-24-2014 10:46 AM
only ones talking about increased canola acreage has been the seed dealers and the traders... farmers are tired of the high cost of the crop and poor results, add the terrible shipping/delivery issues this winter and the resulting low price and the increased seed costs.. canola will be pushed with increased soy planting.
I suspect canola acres will be lower then the Stats Can figures.
personally my canola acres will be down 40% from past years
04-24-2014 05:42 PM - edited 04-24-2014 05:43 PM
y'all like Scoville's comments re: bean export sales - "really bad for beans???"
wonder from what perspective he come-ith? -- here US is 1.61 mil tons OVERcommitted for the year...exported over 100 thousand this week..
........... aren't ANY sales (anything above zero) positive/supportive to mkt in this scenario?
as ECIN says--just shakin' my head here.