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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,037
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Floor Talk April 3

[ Edited ]

At the close:

The May corn futures contract settled 4 1/4 cents higher at $5.00. The Dec. corn futures settled 4 1/2 cents higher at $5.01. The May soybean futures contract settled 13 cents higher at $14.75. The Nov. soybean futures finished 5 1/2 cents higher at $12.03. May wheat futures finished 6 3/4 cents higher at $6.76 per bushel. The May soymeal futures contract closed $3.60 per short ton higher at $480.10. The May soyoil futures finished $0.82 higher at $41.67.
In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil is $0.44 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 30 points lower.

 

Dustin Johnson, EHedger LLC grain analyst, says planting uncertainty is keeping the markets propped up.
"Not seeing any specific news, besides the strong meal sales this morning.  I know that a lot of traders that have stopped trading old crop soybeans just because the carryout is so uncertain."
Informa's 2014 acreage numbers didn't trigger much of a market reaction either, he says.
"We think there is still room to pick up corn and bean acres from what was reported on Monday.  That may cap corn and soybean prices in the new crop until a weather event comes along.  At the same time the market has kept a lot of uncertainty premium in the price ahead of planting.  We could potentially see a range-bound pattern form until heavy planting occurs.  For now we will just watch weather until that happens," Johnson says.

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

The May corn futures contract is trading 1 cent higher at $4.96. The Dec. corn futures are trading 1 1/2 cents higher at $4.98. The May soybean futures contract is 1 1/2 cents higher at $14.63. The Nov. soybean futures are trading 1 3/4 cents lower at $11.96. May wheat futures are 3 1/2 cents higher at $6.72 per bushel. The May soymeal futures contract is trading $1.40 per short ton lower at $475.10. The May soyoil futures are trading $0.64 higher at $41.49.
In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil is $0.10 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 20 points lower.

 

Mike

------

At the open:

The May corn futures contract is trading 3 cents higher at $4.99. The Dec. corn futures are trading 3 cents higher at $5.00 3/4. The May soybean futures contract is 12 cents higher at $14.74. The Nov. soybean futures are trading 4 cents higher at $12.02. May wheat futures are 2 cents higher at $6.71 per bushel. The May soymeal futures contract is trading $4.30 per short ton higher at $480.80. The May soyoil futures are trading $0.40 higher at $43.49.
In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil is $0.16 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 28 points higher.

 

Mike

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At 8am:

USDA's Weekly Export Sales released Thursday:

 

Wheat= 646,900 tons vs. the trade's expectations of  100,000-400,000 metric tons.

Corn= 998,600 tons vs. the trade's expectations of 500,000-1,400,000 metric tons.

Soybeans= 86,500 tons vs. the trade's expectations of (200,000)-100,000 metric tons.

Soybean meal= 332,800 tons  vs. the trade's expectations of 50,000-220,000 metric tons.

 

Mike

--------

At 7:50am:

Early calls: Corn is seen 2-4 cents higher, soybeans 13-15 cents higher, and wheat 3-5 cents higher.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.

Brent Crude Oil=$0.31 per barrel higher.
Dollar=Lower.

Wall Street=Seen higher.

World Markets=Asia/Pacific stocks were mostly higher, Europe stocks were lower.

 


More in a minute,

 

Mike

Frequent Contributor
WCWISC
Posts: 75
Registered: ‎04-08-2013
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Re: Floor Talk April 3

Couldn't possibly be wrong with an expectation range like that in corn.
Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 3,643
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
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Re: Floor Talk April 3

Anybody argue we are going to be short beans? Some of our colleagues here in the Ag industry have alrady bought Brazilian beans and probably Argy bean meal too.

 

What is the surprise about small exports there?

 

Kind of like when we were all but out of corn last summer the corn exports lightened up. Kind of hard to ship what aint there.  Oh yea lets start yelling about demand destruction and yadda yadda yadda...

 

On a side note are the SA beans as good as ours? they used to be a few % less in oil and protein. Has that been "fixed"?

 

60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,037
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk April 3

Walsh Trading Inc. has released U.S. Ending Stocks and World Production Estimates:

 

U.S. crop inventories Before 2014 Harvest
        2014        
Corn = 1.440          
Soybeans= 142          
Wheat=  553          
=======================================================
South American Crop Production                                  
ARGENTINA            
Corn = 23.90            
Soybeans= 54.00            
BRAZIL                
Corn= 69.76            
Soybeans= 88.00            
=========================================================
2013-2014 World Crop Reserves
             USDA March 10  
Corn= 158.90          
Soybeans= 70.40          
Wheat= 183.00          
=======================================================

 

What do you think?

 

Mike

Advisor
c-x-1
Posts: 3,070
Registered: ‎06-26-2012
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Re: Floor Talk April 3

Mike,

what were world ending soy on mar report last yr? be a good benchmark.

 

thanks!