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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,054
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Floor Talk April 3

[ Edited ]

At the close;

The July corn futures settled 2 cents higher at $6.53. While the May soybean contract reached a 7-month high on falling Argentine crop estimates, the July soybean contract closed 6 cents lower at $14.21 1/4. The July wheat futures ended 1/2 of a cent lower at $6.69. The July soymeal futures closed $5.00 per short ton lower at $387.90. The July soyoil futures ended $0.28 lower at $56.29. 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.13 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 90 points.

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

The July corn futures trade 6 3/4 cents higher at $6.57 3/4. While the May soybean contract reached a 7-month high on falling Argentine crop estimates, the July soybean contract is trading 3 cents higher at $14.30 1/4. The July wheat futures are trading 3 1/2 cents lower at $6.66. The July soymeal futures are trading $0.90 per short ton lower at $392.00. The July soyoil futures are trading $0.23 higher at $56.80. 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.78 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 66 points.

 

Mike

------

In early trading:

The July corn futures trade 2 1/2 cents higher at $6.53 1/2. The July soybean contract is trading 1 1/2 cents lower at $14.25 3/4. The July wheat futures are trading 5 cents lower at $6.64 1/2. The July soymeal futures are trading $1.80 per short ton lower at $391.10. The July soyoil futures are trading $0.04 lower at $56.53. 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.78 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 2 points.

 

Mike

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At 6:45am:

USDA's first-of-the-year Crop Progress Report shows 3% of the U.S. corn has been planted. This equates to a 14% completed pace by April 15, signaling a possible above average yield. Is this what you thought? Or, did you think it would be a faster pace?

 

Illinois has 5% of its corn in the ground. That sounds like a lot at this point, doesn't it?

 

 

Mike

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At 6:40am:

FWIW: CME Group announced Tuesday that its first quarter trade volume, for 2012, fell. "CME Group agricultural commodities volume averaged 1.1 million contracts per day, down 3 percent compared with the prior-year period, but up 12 percent compared with fourth-quarter 2011," the Exchange stated in a press release.

 

Separately, traders have said in recent months that they thought the MF Global bankruptcy had a long tail, impacting the trade activity.

 

Mike

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At 6:30am:

Early calls: Corn 1-2 cents higher, soybeans 4-6 cents lower, and wheat 4-6 cents lower.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mostly lower.
Crude Oil=$0.65 per barrel lower.
Dollar=Lower.
Wall Street=Seen trading lower, with the Fed Reserves meeting minutes, and factory orders eyed. Plus, earnings season starts next week. So, investors are looking ahead.

World Markets=Asia/Pacific stocks trade mostly higher, while Europe' s stocks fall.

 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,054
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk April 3

PFGBest.com released estimates today for next week's USDA Report. Do you think SA's crop is dropping?

 

2012 U.S. Inventory Forecasts
                             Previous USDA
           PFG            2012      2011
Corn =  710            801     1,128
Soybeans= 265      275       215
Wheat=    810         825       862
===========================================================
                   2012 Global Inventory Forecasts
                          Prior USDA Estimates
         PFG                  2012      2011
Corn =  124.10         124.53    129.07
Soybeans= 56.50        57.30     68.76
Wheat =  209.00        209.58    199.49
===========================================================
                  South American Production Forecasts
                                Prior USDA Estimates
             PFG              2012          2011
ARGENTINA
Corn     = 21.80         22.00         22.50
Soybeans  =46.20     46.50         49.00
BRAZIL
Corn   =  62.00          62.00         57.50
Soybeans= 68.10      68.50         75.50


Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,508
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: Floor Talk April 3

[ Edited ]

I think we need another report from someone who is in South America........................News out of there has been rather scarce recently.

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,054
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk April 3

[ Edited ]

roarintiger1,

 

Ask and you shall receive. In fact, I have an interview set up for this afternoon with a contact in southern Brazil. I hope to tap him for some answers on that country's situation. I'll certanly pass along what I findd out. Do you have any questions that you would ask if you had the chance? I can throw them in.

 

Separately, I do hear that Brazil exported a record amount of soybeans in March at 4.2 mmt.

 

Mike

Veteran Advisor
Mizzou_Tiger
Posts: 2,207
Registered: ‎11-02-2010
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Marketeye

[ Edited ]

I think the thing that struck me was the pace of spring wheat, oats, barley, rice and cotton.................cotton and spring wheat still strike me as two crops that could buy acres against corn, especially looking at the USDA numbers............

 

corn number is a nothing to see here number...........April 20-May10 is the sweet spot............

Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,508
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: Marketeye

Mike,  We hear talk that Brazil ramped up corn production, but also we've heard that they have increased their sugarcane acres to produce more ethanol.  Has this had an effect on their soybean acres?  Or, are they just bringing more acres into production?  Also, will Brazil continue to be an ethanol importer?   Thanks!

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,054
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Marketeye

I'm jotting it down now. Thanks.

 

Mike

Veteran Contributor
Doug N
Posts: 101
Registered: ‎09-22-2011
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Re: Floor Talk April 3

MT, you have mentioned before that you think spring wheat acres can buy acres. That might be true if cash NC bids get over $10+. Beans may take acres from corn but spring wheat will not. I live in an area where hrsw used to make up 50% of the acres, that number is probably 15% now and falling.