04-30-2013 06:18 AM - edited 04-30-2013 01:56 PM
At the close:
The July futures corn contract settled 9 cents lower at $6.50. The July soybean futures contract finished 9 cents lower at $13.99. July wheat futures closed 14 cents higher at $7.31 per bushel. The July soymeal futures closed $1.90per short ton lower at $414.50. The July soyoil futures finished $0.29 lower at $49.22.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.90 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 5 points lower.
The July futures corn contract is trading 6 cents lower at $6.53. The July soybean futures contract is trading 3 cents higher at $14.11. July wheat futures are trading 1 cent higher at $7.17 per bushel. The July soymeal futures are trading $3.80 per short ton higher at $420.20. The July soyoil futures are trading $0.17 lower at $49.34.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.85 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 24 points lower.
Mike North, First Capital Ag senior risk management advisor.
"Let's look at the rally for what it is. It was built around a forecast. We still, at the end of the day, haven't crossed over into the May calendar. Yes, the planting progress rate is much lower than the trade thought. But, at the end of the day, the market rally could be short-lived because of the farmers' ability to catch up and plant so fast.
We have to go down a few weeks to get excited about this.
For instance, in the Wisconsin area, everyone has different conditions, and some guys will have the chance to get in the field while others won't. So, I think some traders will be stand-off ish and not pumping a whole lot of money into this rally.
All we really have done is bring the corn market back to where we were before the USDA Quarterly Stocks Report. The market has gone back to a spot that it is comfortable with.
For corn, we are up against a resistance level. Technically, there is a little more room for upside potential. But, that is limited.
With the soybean market barely keeping up with corn, that generally tells you that acreage switches could start to move."
Corn and soybeans are mixed, in the early going. I received a note from Jim Bowers, Bower Trading, Inc. IT's an interesting one about what the size of the corn crop would need to be. What do you think?
"It appears to me at this moment, the size of the 2013 U.S. corn crop would have to decline about 14% (based on current planting intentions), in order to lower the carryout into 2014. A crop of 12.5 billion bushels this year would be large enough to supply the market."
At the open:
The July futures corn contract is trading 3/4 cents lower at $6.59. The July soybean futures contract is trading 1 cent higher at $14.10. July wheat futures are trading 9cents lower at $7.07per bushel. The July soymeal futures are trading $.20 per short ton lower at $416.20. The July soyoil futures are trading $0.21 lower at $49.32.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.76 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 7 points lower.
Jeff Coleman, Trean Group analyst and CME Group floor trader, sizes up today's market.
"The big three grain markets were fairly active again overnight as corn and soybean futures extended gains from yesterday and wheat futures holding steady as we head into today’s trading session. July corn futures opened unchanged and traded as much as 9.25 cents higher before pulling back to trade around a nickel higher. December corn futures opened a penny higher and traded up as much as 11.5 cents before settling in to also trading 5 cents higher for most of the night/morning. Illinois, Indiana and Iowa all will probably record the highest amounts of April rainfall and other Midwestern states will also have at least twice the amount of normal April rainfalls. The crop progress report released by the USDA yesterday afternoon showed that only 5 percent of the corn crop has been planted for this time of year in the main corn growing states, far below the 31 percent average year over year. With more bad weather headed for the Midwest this week corn traders are on edge and looking to cover upside risk. July soybean futures opened a penny lower before trading 15 cents higher at one point but fell back a dime and are now trading 5 cents higher. November soybean futures acted in the same manner trading 11 cents higher at one point and peeled back to trade 4 cents higher by early morning. Wheat futures took a breather opening unchanged but are giving up yesterday’s gains trading 6 cents lower as we near the close of the overnight session.
The US equities markets are slightly lower overnight after posting record highs in the S&P 500 yesterday. As stated yesterday, this is an active week for economic data as today’s releases include the S&P Case-Schiller Index used to measure real estate prices over 20 cities is released at 9:00 AM EST and Consumer Confidence which comes out at 10:00 AM EST. Also, today is the beginning of a two day FOMC meeting. The ECB is scheduled to announce Thursday their decision on what to do with interest rates as a cut is expected by most investor/traders."
--S. Korea buyer purchases two cargoes of U.S. wheat.
--A world economist sees the poor performing U.S. wheat crop pushing up world wheat prices.
--India will allow a lot more wheat exports this year.
Today's corn trade limits will rise to 60-cents. Some traders think this rally could be short-lived. Why? Well, synthetically, the July options only traded 1 1/4 cents higher than the limit. In March, on that limit down day, the market dropped another 17 cents, synthentically. And on other limit up days, the options went a lot higher.
Can today's market repeat yesterday's performance? What do you think?
Early calls: Corn is seen 5-7cents higher, soybeans 10-12 cents higher, and wheat 1-2 cents lower.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mostly higher.
Crude Oil=$0.06per barrel lower.
Wall Street=Seen opening flat ahead of consumer data.
World=Asia/Pacific stocks were higher and Europe's stocks are higher.
More in a minute,
04-30-2013 06:49 AM
Good morning again Mike! I was just wondering how close anyone in the north and western corn belt states are to planting? It is gonna be warm and dry here in NW Ohio for 3-4 days but we are really wet. I don't see any planting happening here until the weekend. Maybe could be some spraying going on by Thursday or Friday.
04-30-2013 07:05 AM
04-30-2013 07:06 AM - edited 04-30-2013 07:09 AM
I am a little further north than you are asking about BUT
A weekend farmer worked some ground Sunday morning, no it was not quite dry enough for most of us but close.
Have had 8mm of rain since then so will not take long to dry again with temps forecast 21-22C for the rest of the week with sunshine.
I expect N will be going on wheat again starting today and field work will begin tomorrow and more Thursday.
We would not consider it late planting until we see May 10 in the rear view mirror and not desperate until June is the calendar month.
End of May planting costs some yield but can still be viable option.
Hay might be the crunch here as there is little growth yet and a poor crop last year.
See neighbour dairy farm has received a couple of transport loads of hay recently,will have to find out what the cost of that was.
Wisdom is knowing not to put it in a fruit salad.
04-30-2013 07:07 AM
synthetically!!! O.K. I will bite WTF is synthetically!!! There was corn in the ground North of I-80 (Huxley, Slater area) two weeks ago, plenty of corn going in the ground in Southern Iowa. I mean . . . WTF . . . are you guys the last man on the deal team! Adios Amigos. John
04-30-2013 07:07 AM
Here in Nwestern part of IA. a few planters are rolling but very few.
Most is on lighter soils. Most guys waiting out this weeks weather.
Surprisingly quite a few that usually start early are even waiting.
With this weeks weather not many will plant until middle of next week. That is if it straightens out.
Talk of cold rain with snow for next three days. Yuck!!!
04-30-2013 07:19 AM
we are waiting, I'm in SENE, some of the neighbors are running, we have under 500 acres of corn so I'm not to worried, cold weather on corn seed is not good. the soil temp is only around 50 degrees so if it was early april I wouldn't plant yet, so why push it.
I wonder if I'll be saying that first of June too maybe?!?!?!?!?