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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,098
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Floor Talk April 30

[ Edited ]

After the close:

USDA estimates that 53% of the U.S. corn is planted, sharply higher than the 12% a year ago and a 27% five-year pace. Also, 15% of the corn has emerged, vs. 4% a year ago and a 6% five-year average.

For soybeans, the USDA sees the U.S. crop 12% planted, up from 2% a year ago and a 5% five-year average.

Spring wheat is 74% planted, compared to a 9% year ago average and a 32% five-year pace. Also, USDA estimates that 30% of the U.S. Spring wheat has emerged.

U.S. Winter Wheat is rated as 10% very poor-poor, 26% fair, and 64% good-excellent. Plus, 54% of the winter wheat has headed, vs. 29% a year ago and a 24% five-year average.

 

You might note, USDA's 53% corn planting estimate is higher than the trade thought. Iowa planting rate jumped from 9% to 50%, while Illinois is now 79% finished.

 

Mike

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At the close:

The July corn futures settled 8 3/4 cents higher at $6.34 1/4. The July soybean contract finished 12 cents higher $15.05 1/2. The July wheat futures closed 4 1/2 cents higher at $6.54 1/2. The July soymeal futures finished $7.10 per short ton higher at $435.50 and July soyoil futures ended $0.48 lower at $55.05. 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.31 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 47 points.

 

Looks like the market is starting to get nervous about new-crop soybean supplies. That sparked a closing rally for Nov. 12 beans. Plus, corn shot up at the end of the day on wetter, colder Midwest weather.

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

The July corn futures trade 1/2 of a cent higher at $6.26. The July soybean contract is trading 3 cents lower $14.90 1/2. The July wheat futures are trading 2 1/4 cents lower at $6.47 3/4. The July soymeal futures opened $1.60 per short ton higher at $430.00 and July soyoil futures trade down $0.57 at $54.96. 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.82 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 35 points.

 

One analyst says, "The markets were lower overnight and early today on the surprise deliveries in soybeans and general spec long liquidation.
But, the demand still seems to be out there and farmers are busy in the fields and not planting. So, prices are coming back pretty well.  The wheat tour has started, and conditions seem to be good. So, ideas are that the tourists will find some nice looking crops out there," he says.  
With the crop ratings pretty high, it would not be a real shock to see a good report from the tour, he says.  
Specs have been on both sides of the market and the demand for wheat and soybeans would indicate that commercials are probably doing some buying, he says.  Export inspections Monday were not too good, but the market did not seem to react much to them.  
"It is a little interesting to me that the nearby continues to be as strong as it is, as a lot of the demand from China has been for next year and less for this year.  Warm and wet weather in the Midwest this week will give ideas of very good early crop conditions, after the cool week last week," he says.

 

Yet another analyst says, "The weather and heavy deliveries vs. May soybeans by a UBS client might have chased a few overconfident longs.
"Rain in the eastern Corn Belt his week is generally seen as helpful to crop development for new crop corn. It has been dry over there. Plus, the US dollar is a little stronger today. Month-end asset allocation adjustments call for selling soy complex, buying cattle."

 

Mike

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At 10:30am:

Corn is ticking upward. Soybeans and wheat remain lower this morning.

 

Mike

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At the open:

The July corn futures trade 2 1/4 cents lower at $6.23. The July soybean contract is trading 7 1/2 cents lower $14.86. The July wheat futures are trading 8 cents lower at $6.42. The July soymeal futures opened $1.00 per short ton lower at $427.30 and July soyoil futures trade down $0.48 at $55.06. 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.82 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 5 points.

 

Mike

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At 8:10am:

Boom!

USDA announces that China bought 220,000 mt of U.S. soybeans Monday.

 

Analysts say they are not surprised that China will keep buying soybeans. But, they don't see the Asian giant chasing a corn market higher.

 

Mike

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At 7:45am:

The Kansas Wheat Tour starts tomorrow. Anybody going? Does anybody farm along this wheat tour? If so, what is your perspective on what this year's tour will find? I'm guessing it should look like one of the best crops in recent time? The wheat market is squarely focused on weather, so I'm told.

 

Mike

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At 7:15am:

Don't look now, but yet another analyst firm, in Brazil, has lowered that country's 2011-12 soybean production. AgRural says Brazil's soy output is 66.24 mmt, .7% lower than its previous estimate.

 

Doesn't it seem like those South American crop estimates fall each week?

 

Mike

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At 6:05 am:

Early calls: Corn 1-3 cents higher, soybeans 2-4 cents lower, and wheat 6-8 cents lower.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mostly lower.
Crude Oil=$0.70 per barrel lower.
Dollar=Higher.
Wall Street=Seen trading steady-to-lower ahead of another week of heavy company earnings reports.

World Markets=Asia/Pacific and Europe's stocks are higher.

 

USDA will release its Weekly Crop Progress Report today at 3pm central. Some folks in the trade see U.S. corn plantings at 48%-50% complete. Right now, the radar shows plenty of rain falling in parts of Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri and Illinois. That is a large swath of farmland that will be too wet to plant this week.

 

 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,098
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk April 30

I mentioned the weekly lowering of SA's soybean crop estimates. Also, on Friday I received a note from a well-respected floor trader. He told me that his firm's soybean analysts sees the possibility for the bean market to reach a level (that I am not going to mention because like the trader says it would be acting like an alarmist) that is much higher than where we are now. 

 

Here's the caveat in his own words:

 

"But to do this (hit that alarming price level) requires some weather threat and a limit to bean acreage. The June 30th Report will be a very important report for the bean market. I hope we see large acres and good weather… too much vol is not good for anyone….even the farmer. If we kill off the trade growth with high prices we will end up paying for it later," he says.

 

Here's the question to you all. What does your math tell you about how high this bean market can reach?

 

Mike

Veteran Advisor
Mizzou_Tiger
Posts: 2,267
Registered: ‎11-02-2010
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Re: Floor Talk April 30

I think its safe to say those pics were not cherry picked........I70 corridor looks nasty the last 48 hours.......think we are going backwards on progress this week......
Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,098
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk April 30

What pictures to which you refer? Maybe I'm missing them.

 

Frequent Contributor
Ron (Cen. IL.)
Posts: 32
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: Floor Talk April 30

I think he's referring to the pictures from South America that were posted  a couple  months ago.

Veteran Advisor
Palouser
Posts: 2,159
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: Floor Talk April 30

I will dispute the trader's analysis. Global need at higher prices translates to more exports. That's fullfilling demand. We do not get trade through low prices because of our geopgrahical position. Itf threre alternativesout there for sourcing then they will be there yesterday, today and tomorrow and the relative status quo isn't likely to change. Bt the same token, meat is high priced, feed is high priced and we are exporting more meat.

 

This is how it works in real life. Food doesn't come from a widget factory. But, I would be grateful if the floor trader can show me different patterns, because he would be the first to do so. So ask him about it and see what he says.

Veteran Advisor
Palouser
Posts: 2,159
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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There are problems with wheat in Kansas

PS - There are some problems w/ wheat in parts of Kansas, apparently southern. I have pics of dying wheat and heads that are turning before they can get all the way out of the boot. The problem is that there is no subsoil moisture and when the surface moisture shuts off it's all over in a matter of days. A coming heat spell will be the defining moment as to how much of the wheat is in this situation. Wheat with enough moisture deep enough will be OK until later. Other wheat will be gone very quickly.

 

I do not know how much wheat is in danger. That doesn't discount the fact there is some very good wheat out there for now.

Veteran Advisor
Palouser
Posts: 2,159
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: There are problems with wheat in Kansas

One of the issues of wheat growing well over dry subsoil is it can look great right up until the end.

Senior Contributor
Buckley_HF
Posts: 165
Registered: ‎12-29-2011
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Re: There are problems with wheat in Kansas

[ Edited ]
Mike, any talk around the floor of the CME regarding expanding the trading hours for the AG futures? Heard they may go to 6pm-4pm? I wonder what traders would think about this?
Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,098
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: There are problems with wheat in Kansas

You mean instead of closing at 1:15pm the floor would close at 4pm? And then the markets would open electronically at 6pm? Just want to make sure I understand what you're asking before I check around.

 

Mike