04-04-2012 06:27 AM - edited 04-04-2012 03:09 PM
Brazil Video: Here is a full interview with a Brazilian journalist on current production, farmer-selling, and upcoming ethanol needs. Luis Vieira joins us from southern Brazil. Ground-truth commentary from a country that is seeing falling soybean production this year. Grab a drink and take a look.
At the close:
The July corn futures settled 2 1/4 cents lower at $6.50 3/4. The July soybean contract closed 2 1/2 cents higher at $14.23 3/4. The July wheat futures closed 19 1/4 cents lower at $6.49 3/4. The July soymeal futures closed $1.10 per short ton higher at $389.00. The July soyoil futures closed $0.14 higher at $56.43.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.95 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 126 points.
Informa's updated South America crop estimates fall:
Brazil corn=62.0 mmt
Brazil soybeans=66.5 mmt
Argentina corn=22.0 mmt
Argentina soybeans=45.0 mmt
The July corn futures trade 1/4 of a cent higher at $6.53. The new-crop corn contracts are lower. The July soybean contract is trading 8 1/4 cents higher at $14.29 1/2. The July wheat futures are trading 11 cents lower at $6.58. The July soymeal futures are trading $4.10 per short ton higher at $392.00. The July soyoil futures are trading $0.43 higher at $56.72.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $2.15 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 146 points.
In addition, the CBOE's Volatility Index (VIX) has jumped. This measures the nervousness of the market.
One analyst says, "Corn is reluctant to take out the major resistance on the charts at 6.68 with a three day holiday coming and crude oil and other outside markets down sharply. Beans opened 9 lower but surging overseas vegetable crops have beans up on the day on thinking bean oil prices are going higher."
Old-crop corn contracts are trading higher, while the new-crop contracts are pressured by big crop ideas.
In early trading:
The July corn futures trade 2 1/4 cents lower at $6.50 3/4. The July soybean contract is trading 6 cents lower at $14.15 1/4. The July wheat futures are trading 11 1/2 cents lower at $6.57 1/2. The July soymeal futures are trading $0.50 per short ton higher at $388.40. The July soyoil futures are trading $0.10 lower at $56.19.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.28 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 163 points.
Note: I mentioned this in the Tuesday grain market summary. It's interesting to note that Brazil's 2011-12 soybean production, estimated this week at 65.2 mmt, is very close to that country's 2011-12 corn production estimate of 65.0 mmt. If corn outproduces soybeans, this will be the first time this has happened since 2000-2001. I think this is a very telling sign that crop diversification is happening in a big way in South America. Would you have ever guessed that Brazil produces just as much corn as soybeans? Be honest now.
Japan seeks 320,000 mt of feed barley.
Japan buys 4,600 mt of feed wheat.
Early calls: Corn 2-4 cents higher, soybeans 2-4 cents lower, and wheat 6-8 cents lower.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mostly lower.
Crude Oil=$0.91 per barrel lower.
Wall Street=Seen trading lower, with the ADP report to be released today which will give investors the state of U.S. employment.
A short trading week, unwinding of spreads, the upcoming Goldman Roll, and profit-taking all are seen keeping the farm markets in a contraction mode this week.
More in a minute,
04-04-2012 06:53 AM
04-04-2012 07:08 AM - edited 04-04-2012 07:22 AM
Commodities did fall broadly, due to the Fed's March meeting minutes that didn't show strong enough signs of another package to pump money into the U.S. economy. However, some talking heads believe Bernanke still is in a crisis mode and that he still believes easing money as the answer. Until signs that a deflation show up, easing money is still on the table.
04-04-2012 07:56 AM
The 'weather man' is talking about frost chances tomorrow morning for Wisconsin and Michigan. More importantly, numerous chances of frost for the Midwest are showing up in the April 12-13 timeframe. And FYI, history shows that past years with warm March's have been followed by periods of freezing temps. Just passing along the weather news, not trying to scare anyone. But, it really is something that the market will monitor intensely for the next 10-20 days.
04-04-2012 08:49 AM
Mike; besides the freeze risk for early planted crops there is another risk that can not be forecast.
From my fathers history lessons. In the 1930ies in Ontario they had a year when they were able to plant their crops of small grains, little corn grown here then, in early March.
My father planted most of his in this nice weather and was pooh pooh by neighbours who said it was too early.
It then turned wet (and Cool i believe) and they next got on the ground to plant in June.
The early planted turned out a less than average yield, the June planting produced little harvestable grain.
The weather in the future months holds the key to all this and even a 'dry' future forecast CAN be too wet to plant if the showers happen every other day.
04-04-2012 08:58 AM - edited 04-04-2012 08:59 AM
Just got a call from a marketing firm that told me to sell half of what's left in my soybean bin and half of new-crop that I want priced before harvest this fall. If I had a bin maybe I would do that. What about you, are you selling soybeans now? What does your marketing plan look like right now, ahead of putting more crop in the ground?
04-04-2012 10:14 AM
I've been thinking about leaving some soybeans go. But only old crop...new crop acreage might just get smaller...and who knows what kind of weather we're going to have. I don't have any expectation of huge dips in the price until after the August/Sept time frame. We have to produce a crop this year, because South America's previous crop is getting smaller every time they report it. If we have a dry August/September, I'm thinking there could be some real fireworks in new crop beans.
04-04-2012 11:42 AM
Amazing year. Have we ever had an early spring which invites extra corn acres being planted AND a crop price scenario that in many areas calls for a switch to beans. Don't think so. So what pull will win the day? Of course, weather can still play a part. I never thought I would have all spring NH3 on , weather is great if not a little dry, and I'm waiting on the calendar to get started planting corn.