04-05-2013 07:16 AM - edited 04-05-2013 02:49 PM
Reminder: The new CME Group trading hours start this Sunday night. The Exchange will trim the trading hours from 21 to 17 1/2. The big difference is that the floor trading will now start at 8:30am CT and close at 1:15pm CT, daily vs. the 2pm CT. Also, the electronic trading will start at 7pm and close at 7:45am. The e-trading fires back up 45-minutes later at 8:30am CT, along with the floor trading.
At the close:
The May futures corn contract closed 1 cent lower at $6.29. For the week, corn prices dropped 10%. The May soybean futures contract closed 10 cent lower at $13.61. May wheat futures finished 5 cents higher at $6.99 per bushel. The May soymeal futures ended $5.30 per short ton lower at $391.80. The May soyoil futures closed $0.28 higher at $48.83.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.34 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 91 points lower.
The May futures corn contract is trading 1 cent lower at $6.29. The May soybean futures contract is trading 15 cent lower at $13.57. May wheat futures are trading 1 cent higher at $6.95 per bushel. The May soymeal futures are trading $5.70 per short ton lower at $391.40. The May soyoil futures are trading $0.04 lower at $48.51.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.98 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 102 points lower.
One analyst says, "We are reacting as much to the unemployment data as much as anything right now. The soybeans are the weak animal here and that is due to the bird flu thing in China. We are worried about demand here and rightly so as we will lose out export demand to BRZ and ARG now and with ideas of potentially less demand out of China due to the flu. So, the weakness is understandable. Domestic markets holding strong which should help, but once the specs start selling it can take a while to get them out. People bearish about SD estimates next week too after the stocks reports last week. I am hoping for a pop somewhere in here, but overall the markets over the last few years have been weak at this time of year into the first part of the summer and this year is setting up the same. Pretty ugly week for sure," he says.
At the open:
The May futures corn contract is trading 2 cents lower at $6.28. The May soybean futures contract is trading 12 cents lower at $13.60. May wheat futures are trading 4 cents lower at $6.89 per bushel. The May soymeal futures are trading $4.60 per short ton lower at $392.50. The May soyoil futures are trading $0.06 higher at $48.61.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.99 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 119 points lower.
--USDA reports Friday that 120,000 tons of U.S. corn was sold to 'unknown' for 2013-14 delivery.
Jeff Coleman, The Trean Group analyst, says the technical selling is set to continue, Friday.
"Corn and wheat were slightly active in overnight trade with corn barely escaping the unchanged level while wheat slid slowly to the downside. It seems that both old crop corn and wheat may be at a price level that makes them attractive to feed users, thereby we might start to see some support in these futures markets. Soybeans, though, were a different story overnight. Beans opened unchanged and showed no signs of life after opening unchanged, trading a penny higher and then giving it up and trading as much as 13.75 cents lower. We know that there has been much technical selling in soybean futures and it looks like the selling will continue into today’s trading session. The decrease in soybean demand partly brought about by the new bird flu fears in China is having quite a negative effect on the bean futures market. We could see some profit taking in the grains today, especially in the bean market as traders close out their weekly books. The equities and treasuries markets will be very active today as the unemployment numbers came out much worse than expected. Job growth which was expected to be a robust 200,000 new jobs added came out at just 88,000 jobs added. And the market onslaught has begun with the Dow Jones index plunging over 150 points and the S&P’s dropping almost 20 points. "
--Here's the talk. Next week's grain stocks are unikely to see any change in the April USDA Supply/Demand Report Wednesday.
--China is on a spring holiday. That, plus bird flu cases being reported could mean U.S. soybean export activity to be slow.
--The technicals seem to be going against the farm markets. So, some fundamental bullish news is needed to provide a spark. With freezing temps in the Midwest forecast, weather just might fill that role, in April.
What say you?
Early calls: Corn is seen 1-2 cents lower, soybeans 10-12 cents lower, and wheat 2-4 cents lower.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading lower.
Crude Oil=$0.38 per barrel lower.
Wall Street=Seen opening lower, ahead of U.S. jobs data Friday. The numbers are expected to miss expectations.
World=Asia/Pacific stocks were mixed and Europe's stocks are lower.
Choppy performance lately. Sorry. Back now.
More in a minute,
04-05-2013 11:16 AM
Note: Next week's weekly ethanol production report is expected to be significant, one analyst says. It will be the first report that reflects the usage since the $1.05 drop in corn prices created by the USDA's raised corn ending stocks March 28.
Separately, here are some of the first pre-report estimates for the April 10 USDA Report:
Alpari (U.S.) LLC says:
South American Crop Production
Corn = 25.9
2013 U.S. Inventory Forecasts
Soybeans = 150
Wheat = 740
04-05-2013 12:15 PM - edited 04-05-2013 12:33 PM
thanks for catching my mistake and/or lack of clarity------thought Mike was talking 2012 - 2013 mktg yr which would not incl 2013 production
04-05-2013 12:53 PM
A major snowstorm is expected to hit next week. Here are the states that could see the brunt of the snowfall:
Whoa! When will this snow melt? And by the way, Iowa was not mentioned but that state is expected to get quite wet, during this same weather event.
04-05-2013 02:02 PM - edited 04-05-2013 02:14 PM
Remember this picture of the Texas corn that was planted in early March? Well, four weeks and a few freezes later, it is still growing, according to the Williamson County, Texas Grain Company. The area has received three rains in the last four weeks that have saved their 'bacon'. Since the area corn was planted, there have been a few frost events. However, the damage has been just a blistering of the leaves. The earliest planted corn is now 12-inches tall or (shin-high). No replanting reported. And, even if there would need to be replanting, seed is short. So, some other crop would replace corn. Thanks. Mike
04-05-2013 02:46 PM
If it freezes 12 inch corn off its DUN, ( "done" for you non nebraskan's.) We had corn freeze off in 2004 it was only a few inches high. here in SENE I see some planters hooked on but no one is in the field planting. A few marks with the field cultivator. Nothing major though. Some sprayer yesterday and this morning. I was thinking we might see some in the ground this weekend but with the forecast I'm staying out of the field cold and wet.