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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,125
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Floor Talk April 9

[ Edited ]

Wondering about this summer's cattle market? Wonder no more. See the full spring/summer price Cattle Outlook.

 

Mike

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U.S. corn is 7% planted, according to the USDA Monday. That is above 3% at this same time a year ago.

 

Mike

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At the close:

The July corn futures closed 11 cents lower at $6.41 1/4. The July soybean contract settled 3 cents lower at $14.34 3/4. The July wheat futures ended 2 3/4 cents higher at $6.49. The July soymeal futures ended $2.60 per short ton lower at $391.10. The July soyoil futures closed $0.07 higher at $57.10. 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.84 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 90 points.

 

Mike

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At 1:10pm:

One analyst says, "The markets are kind of wandering before the USDA crop progress reports tonight and the s-d reports tomorrow.  Looking for increased demand and less ending stocks for the beans, no real changes for the corn just yet.  Wheat holding better on the cold weather forecasts for later this week, although overall the crop should be in good shape here and should be getting better in Europe with some precip finally around over there."

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

The July corn futures trade 8 3/4 cents lower at $6.43 1/2. The July soybean contract is trading 6 cents lower at $14.31 3/4. The July wheat futures are trading 1 cent higher at $6.47 1/4. The July soymeal futures are trading $3.40 per short ton lower at $390.30. The July soyoil futures are trading $0.02 higher at $57.05. 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $2.21 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 137 points.

 

Mike

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At the open:

The July corn futures trade 1/2 of a cent lower at $6.51 3/4. The July soybean contract is trading 4 1/2 cents lower at $14.33 1/4. The July wheat futures are trading unchanged at $6.46 1/2. The July soymeal futures are trading $1.90 per short ton lower at $391.80. The July soyoil futures are trading $0.02 lower at $57.01. 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.86 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are down 126 points.

 

Mike

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At 7am:

Tomorrow's USDA Grain Stocks and World Production Reports are expected to be bullish. Do you think they will be? Can they carry the day's trade? Or, will the negative outside market forces win over?

 

What's your feeling?

 

Mike

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At 6:40am:

Early calls: Corn 2-4 cents higher, soybeans 1-2 cents higher, and wheat 1-2 cents higher.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.
Crude Oil=$1.19 per barrel lower.
Dollar=Lower.
Wall Street=Seen trading sharply lower, as last week's lower-than-expected non-farm payroll numbers weigh.

World Markets=Lower.

 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

Advisor
jrsiajdranch
Posts: 2,120
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk April 9

[ Edited ]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-08/slumping-u-s-crop-reserves-raising-food-costs-in-election-y...Interesting story from Bloomberg

 

BTW some milk was being sold at 5 dollar under the class 3 price just to get it moved this week. FOlks are having a very hard time affording food it seems.

Senior Contributor
Buckley_HF
Posts: 165
Registered: ‎12-29-2011
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Re: Floor Talk April 9

Mike, I read somewhere where there's a growing Skepticism in the trade that USDA won't lower carryout as much as they should. Just curious to as what exactly the trade is expecting tomorrow specifically for corn and soya carryout. After the last report I would think we have to go lower than 801 for corn but I don't like to try and out guess the government. Thanks.
Veteran Advisor
Nebrfarmr
Posts: 6,808
Registered: ‎10-25-2010
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Re: Floor Talk April 9

My guess is there will be lowered carrryover/stocks, which will be bullish, but I'm not brave enough to actually put money on it, as the market could be expecting bullish, and it might be more neutral, which could be bearish.

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,125
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk April 9

Lower stocks, higher feed use, lower world production, all will combine for a bullish report. The funds, getting long soybeans last week, signals more upside for the bean market.

 

The trade sees 717 corn stock number and a 246 for soybeans. See (full story) here.

 

Mike

Senior Contributor
Canuck_2
Posts: 4,087
Registered: ‎05-10-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk April 9

If everyone is expecting it to be lower then it is not news unless it is lower than expectations.

Meeting everyones expectations will not be enough to raise the market. Will it be enough to hold the market where it is?

Knowledge is knowing a tomato is a fruit.
Wisdom is knowing not to put it in a fruit salad.
Senior Contributor
farsider
Posts: 181
Registered: ‎06-28-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk April 9

Will carryout matter for 2011-2012 if the trade feels we will get this crop going early enough to add to supply in august to the extent of carrying through any shortness of last year? Sept 2011 had a surprise increase that took carry to over 1.1 b yet we have burned through close to 7.5 b and left with 6 to get us to sept give or take a few million. Use has to be close to last years 3rd and 4th quarters to keep us from dropping tbelow 599 carryout. Usda will again have to find bushels to keep carry over near 800 and close to 1/2 billion to get it back to sept 2011 . http://www.agmanager.info/marketing/outlook/newletters/Stocks.asp