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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,147
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Floor Talk April 9

[ Edited ]

At the close:

The May corn futures contract settled 4 3/4 cents lower at $5.02. The Dec. corn futures finished 7 1/2 cents lower at $5.05. The May soybean futures contract closed 12 3/4 cents higher at $14.95. The Nov. soybean futures closed 10 cents higher at $12.27. May wheat futures finished 12 cents lower at $6.69 per bushel. The May soymeal futures contract settled $4.00 per short ton higher at $482.10. The May soyoil futures finished $0.81 higher at $42.92.
In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil is $0.81 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 152 points higher.

 

Mike

--------

Near the close:

Corn is off 5 cents, beans are still higher.

 

 

Mike

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The farm markets are rising, as a result of the Report. BUT, a sharp rising is coming back down already.

 

At 11am:

 

USDA SAYS:

 

Corn carryout=  1.331 billion bushels vs. the trade's estimate of 1.403 billion bushels

 

Soybean carryout=  135 million bushels  vs. the trade's estimate of 139 million bushels

 

Wheat carryout= 583 million bushels vs. the trade's expectations of 581 million.

 

World Production:

 

Brazil soybean= 87.5 million metric tons vs. the trade's expectations of 87.4 million metric tons

Argentina soybeans=  54.0 million metric tons vs. 54.1 million metric tons.

 

Brazil corn= 72.0 million metric tons vs. trade 69.8 million metric tons

Argentina corn=  24.0 vs. trade 24.1What do you think?

 

TRADE RESPONSE:

--Jack Scoville, PRICE Futures Group vice-president, says this about the report:  "Wild reaction to the report today.  Wheat the easiest, it is the big world ending stocks estimate that has hurt that market.  The wheat domestic ending stocks estimate was just a touch above expectations and statistically insignificant, but that is a lot of wheat in the world, and there are forecasts for some light precip out there in the plains later this week that might help.  Corn a strong reaction lower after making highs, and beans fading too.  A lot of the professional types here wanted to sell a bullish reaction thinking that the reports are pretty much already part of the market given the rally of the last couple of days.  Looks so far like it was the right move.  In reality there is nothing here in any of the usda estimates that have not been discussed.  Where is new demand going to come from in beans now with china dying, and corn supplies are still big enough even if a touch tight.  The close will be big I think. "

 

--Steve Kahler, CEO of Teucrium Trading, sizes up today's report like this: "Today's USDA report showed a continued tightening of the US soybean supply by increasing exports and seed use with a small increase on imports.  Brazilian soybean production estimates declined slightly with few other changes to the world supply and demand situation.  The demand for US corn from exports remains strong which enabled the USDA to reduce corn ending stocks  to a level below the average of trade estimates.  Despite the strength in US demand, the USDA made no change to these estimates in the feed or ethanol production categories.  The US wheat supply scenario remains stable and the trade will continue to monitor winter wheat condition ratings and evaluate how that will impact this year's crop."

 

--Peter Meyer, PIRA Energy senior grain analyst sums up the USDA Report like this: "Bulls need to be fed every day.  While corn ending stocks were 100 million bushels lower than expected, it’s hard to support the speculative length in the market.  The bean number was right in line with expectations yet the high frequency trading crowd, also long a lot of beans, takes the market up 30 cents on air?  I know there are no beans left and imports are a record, but what’s the exit strategy for the large speculative length in soy?  Wheat stocks were bearish and that will hold corn down," he says.

 

--Yet another analyst says the USDA raised corn exports by 130 million bushels to get that lower carryout number. The lower corn carryout number is the friendliest of the report.

 

Mike

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At 12-Noon:

The May corn futures contract is trading 1/4 of a cent higher at $5.07. The Dec. corn futures are trading 4 1/2 cents lower at $5.08. The May soybean futures contract is 16 1/2 cents higher at $14.99. The Nov. soybean futures are trading 9 1/4 cents higher at $12.26. May wheat futures are 13 3/4 cents lower at $6.67 per bushel. The May soymeal futures contract is trading $7.20per short ton higher at $485.30. The May soyoil futures are trading $0.35 higher at $42.46.
In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil is $0.41 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 79 points higher.

 

Mike

-------

At the open:

The May corn futures contract is trading 1/4 of a cent higher at $5.07. The Dec. corn futures are trading 3 3/4 cents lower at $5.09. The May soybean futures contract is 9 1/4 cents higher at $14.91. The Nov. soybean futures are trading 4 1/2 cents higher at $12.22. May wheat futures are 4 1/2 cents higher at $6.85 per bushel. The May soymeal futures contract is trading $2.30 per short ton higher at $480.40. The May soyoil futures are trading $0.34 higher at $42.45.
In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil is $0.92 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 38 points higher.

 

Mike

------------

At 8:10am:

Early calls: Corn is seen old crop 1-2 cents higher, new-crop corn 2-4 cents lower, soybeans 10-12 cents higher, and wheat 2-4 cents higher.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.

Brent Crude Oil=$0.92 per barrel lower.
Dollar=Lower.

Wall Street=Seen higher.

World Markets=Europe stocks were higher.

 


More in a minute,

 

Mike

Veteran Advisor
BA Deere
Posts: 8,471
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk April 9

Thank goodness, but the corn isn`t exactly exploding to the upside with a lower carry.  Wonder, if not going up on a postive report might be a warning sign....day ain`t over yet thought, `bout the time I hit "post" it`ll be double digit higher  :smileyhappy:

We shouldn`t have to light a candle to see the Sun.
Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,147
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk April 9

Separate from the USDA Report, the Energy Information Agency released its weekly Ethanol Production Report Wednesday.

 

According to EIA data, ethanol production averaged 896,000 barrels per day (b/d)—or 37.63 million gallons daily. That is down 26,000 b/d from the week before. The four-week average for ethanol production stood at 898,000 b/d for an annualized rate of 13.77 billion gallons.

Stocks of ethanol stood at 16.4 million barrels. That is a 3.4% increase from last week.

Imports of ethanol were 38,000 b/d, up from last week.

Gasoline demand for the week averaged 377.8 million gallons daily.

Expressed as a percentage of daily gasoline demand, daily ethanol production was 9.96%.

 

Mike

Veteran Advisor
Palouser
Posts: 2,183
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Is THAT a misprint?

[ Edited ]

Argentina 24 MMT of soy instead of 54.2 MMT ???   HOLY MOLY !!!!!!!!

 

Advisor
giolucas
Posts: 1,106
Registered: ‎06-25-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk April 9

Sellling beans at limit up.

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,147
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Re: Is THAT a misprint?

Palouser,

 

Sorry, typed the corn number in the soybean slot. :smileyhappy:  That's why I have you guys and gals around, to keep me on the straight and narrow!

 

Thanks for catching that.

 

Mike

Senior Contributor
elcheapo
Posts: 595
Registered: ‎02-11-2013
0

Re: Floor Talk April 9

The etoh number reminded me. In about
10 yrs change in energy market.

Navy has announced they can now make
Fuel from salt water. They now have prototypes.
And have used the fuel. Now it needs
Upscaled.

How do you think it will hit the etoh
Market.

South America uses sugar cane for
Moonshine. From what I'm told alot of
cane fields idled down south due to
No profit.

What would happen to corn if we lost
Our etoh demand.