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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,218
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Floor Talk August 1

[ Edited ]

VIDEO: Marketeye visits with the CME Group's ag economist. Short-dated new crop options are all the buzz lately. 

 

Short-Dated Options Catch Fire

 

 

Have you or will you use short-dated options? I'm just curious what the sentiment is in the countryside.

 

Thanks,

 

Mike

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At 11:40am:

NOTE:  The market is getting set for a number of private crop estimates to be released. These estimates are coming out ahead of the August 12 Report. FC Stone Intl. will release revised numbers this afternoon. Informa comes out with their new estimates Friday and a number of private firms will release estimates next week.

 

Mike

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At the close:

The Sept. futures corn contract settled 11 cents lower at $4.87 per bushel. The Dec. corn futures contract closed 12 cents lower at $4.67. The Aug. soybean futures contract finished 16 cents lower at $13.57, new-crop Nov. soybeans ended 13 cents lower at $11.92. Sept. wheat futures finished 6 cents lower at $6.58 per bushel. The Dec. soymeal futures closed $6.00 per short ton lower at $359.20. The Dec. soyoil futures ended $0.22 higher at $42.92.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $2.78 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 139 points higher.

 

One analyst says, "Grains started the month lower for the sixth consecutive month. But note, we have traded higher in 5 of the last 6 months into the USDA monthly crop report with the next one due  Aug. 12. Also pressuring prices is more rain in the forecast into the week end..

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At mid-session:

The Sept. futures corn contract is 11 cents lower at $4.88 per bushel. The Dec. corn futures contract is trading 12 cents lower at $4.66. The Aug. soybean futures contract is trading 2 cents higher at $13.75, new-crop Nov. soybeans are trading 11 cents lower at $11.95. Sept. wheat futures are trading 11 cents lower at $6.52 per bushel. The Aug. soymeal futures are trading $5.90 per short ton lower at $359.30. The Aug. soyoil futures are trading $0.38 higher at $43.08.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $2.53 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 116 points higher.

 

 

Mike

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At 9:40am:

 

The farm markets have weakend. All are trading lower.

 

Mike

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At the open:

The Sept. futures corn contract is 4 cents lower at $4.95. The Dec. corn futures contract opened 5 cents lower at $4.74. The Aug. soybean futures contract is trading 5 cents higher at $13.79, new-crop Nov. soybeans are trading 4 cents lower at $12.02. Sept. wheat futures are trading 4 cents lower at $6.60 per bushel. The Aug. soymeal futures are trading $2.70 per short ton lower at $362.50. The Aug. soyoil futures are trading $0.41 higher at $43.11.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $2.04 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 130 points higher.

 

Mike

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At 7:30am;

USDA Weekly Export Sales Report shows that corn, soybean and soymeal beat expectations:

 

Wheat= 596,900 metric tons vs. the trade's expectations of 500,000-700,000 metric tons

Corn= 1.22 million mt  vs. the trade's expectations of 475,000-875,000 metric tons.

Soybeans= 1.108 mmt vs. the trade's expectations of 400,000-800,000 metric tons.

Soybean meal= 331,400 mt  vs. the trade's expectations of 125,000-275,000 metric tons.

 

Separately, it was announced Thursday that a Phillippines buyer purchased 110,000 tons of U.S. soymeal for Oct., Dec. shipment.

 

Mike

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At 7:15am:
Early calls: Corn is seen 2-4 cents lower (old-crop), soybeans 6-8 cents higher (old-crop), and wheat 1-2 cents lower. Meanwhile, new-crop corn 3-5 cents lower and soybeans are seen 2-4 cents higher.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mixed.
Crude Oil=$1.71 per barrel higher.
Dollar=Higher.
Wall Street=Seen seen higher, as China and European data support stocks. Fed Reserve information, regarding showing no additional signs of easing bond buying helped stocks.
World=Asia/Pacific stocks were lower and Europe's stocks are higher. 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

Advisor
farmerguy89
Posts: 1,226
Registered: ‎06-30-2012
0

Re: Floor Talk August 1

Whats with all the big shipping #s lately?
Veteran Contributor
aaron-neill
Posts: 67
Registered: ‎05-17-2010
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Re: Floor Talk August 1

Corn bookings @ 5-year high for this time of the year...Wouldn't you buy on sale?  The talking bears keep saying export demand is dead!

@cfarms76
Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,218
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk August 1

Farmerguy89,

 

Corn just finished six straight months of losses. The longest streak of losses since 1996. I would think somebody would step in and buy. Maybe that's what's happening?

 

Mike

Senior Contributor
tree fmr
Posts: 399
Registered: ‎06-04-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk August 1

Mike,

Sounds like its time for you to take a vacation, so the markets will rebound!  :smileylol:

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,218
Registered: ‎05-03-2010

Re: Floor Talk August 1

tree fmr,

 

I might just take you up on that suggestion. My house and yard could use some sprucing up.

 

Mike

Esteemed Advisor
sw363535
Posts: 4,771
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
0

Re: Floor Talk August 1

Mike 

 

That export report didn't bother the bear much.  We may need to get a bigger gun.

These little sprinkles must have the market thinking life is good.  Too bad they are falling down in scourched earth country and not up in corn country where rain is needed.  

Sure has smelled good this last week in SW

 

Cooler did let the irrigation catch up a little and now there will be a little dry land milo cut if it rains more in August.  Good smells.

sw
Senior Contributor
k-289
Posts: 1,809
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk August 1

Witnessing the free markets at work I guess ?