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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,148
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Floor Talk August 2

[ Edited ]

At mid-session:

The Sept. futures corn contract is 4 cents lower at $4.83. The Dec. corn futures contract is trading 1 cent higher at $4.68. The Aug. soybean futures contract is trading 7 cents lower at $13.50, new-crop Nov. soybeans are trading 1 cent lower at $11.91. Sept. wheat futures are trading 3 cents higher at $6.61 per bushel. The Dec. soymeal futures are trading $0.90 per short ton lower at $358.30. The Dec. soyoil futures are trading unchanged at $42.92.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.13 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 21points lower.

 

One analyst says, "Technicians are chomping at the bit for an opportunity at picking a bottom in the market.  Soybeans are testing spring lows and given the soybeans knack for posting double tops and bottoms, traders are hoping that this is the spot where they can grab some long positions for a potential turn around.  Corn is following in kind as September tests support at $4.80 and the oversold conditions that analysts have been squawking about all week.  The market awaits the resurvey of soybean acres on the 12th and with little change in weather or fundamental news, there is not much for the market to talk about but charts.  If these levels do in fact hold, look for plenty of weak shorts to exit and extend a rally towards $5 December corn and $12.80 September beans.  Caution should be exhibited by producers in thinking that any such rally would be long term.  Analysis continues to come to the market offering up growing yields and big crops.  Rallies should be sold by producers looking to add to current sale positions…it may be one of the last opportunities before any serious discussion takes place concerning the possibility of an early frost.  Producers light on sales should also be considering the use of put options to defend against further declines."

 

 

Mike

--------------

At the open:

The Sept. futures corn contract is 3 cents lower at $4.85. The Dec. corn futures contract opened 1 cent lower at $4.66. The Aug. soybean futures contract is trading 3 cents higher at $13.61, new-crop Nov. soybeans are trading 6 cents higher at $11.98. Sept. wheat futures are trading 2 cents higher at $6.59 per bushel. The Aug. soymeal futures are trading $1.90 per short ton higher at $361.10. The Aug. soyoil futures are trading $0.16 higher at $43.08.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.44 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 58points lower.

 

Mike

----------

At 6:45am:

 

CME Group announced Friday that its overall per day July contract volume was up 4%. However, the agricultural commodities volume, in July 2013, averaged 984,000 contracts per day, down 29 percent compared with the prior-year period. Can you hear the 'big' money leaving the grain room?

 

 

Mike

---------

At 6:00am:

If you missed it yesterday, FC Stone Intl. released its updated U.S. crop production estimates. Informa will be out with their numbers today. But, here are FC Stone's:

 

Corn Production=  13.99 billion bushels

Corn Yield=  157 bu./acre

 

Soybean Production=3.3 billion bushels

Soybean Yield=  43 bu./acre

 

Below is a screen shot of the state-by-state breakdown of FC Stone Intl's crop estimates:

 

Screen shot 2013-08-02 at 6.04.46 AM.png

 

 

So, what do you think? Are the yield estimates too high for Illinois and Indiana? What about Minnesota's 159 corn yield avg.? Too high or not?

 

Mike

---------------

At 5:45am:
Early calls: Corn is seen 1-2 cents lower (old-crop), soybeans 5-7 cents higher (old-crop), and wheat 2-4 cents higher. Meanwhile, new-crop corn 1-2 cents lower and soybeans are seen 6-8 cents higher.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mixed.
Crude Oil=$0.07 per barrel lower.
Dollar=Lower.
Wall Street=Seen higher, ahead of nonfarm payroll data. Some believe that investors are complacement with a current bull market and with little to pay attention to, right now. For instance, earnings season is quieting, the VIX is near a low, the Fed doesn't meet again until September and a new Fed Chairman will not be announced anytime soon, maybe not until next year. For investors, the noise in the room may be coming from overseas markets.
World=Asia/Pacific stocks were higher and Europe's stocks are higher. 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

Senior Advisor
ECIN
Posts: 2,046
Registered: ‎10-17-2012
0

Re: Floor Talk August 2

Dang Mike - up and going early -- let's see here -- it's Friday -- Pretty weather - well it is here - Maybe Tee time for noon ? 

 

Hope you have a good round ! :smileyhappy:

 

BTW  -- How's them boys doing ?

Senior Contributor
Wind
Posts: 345
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk August 2

Mike,  the 70% to 80% chance of rain for a large part of western central Iowa fail to show up last night.  All the weather models where wrong except for Jen.  A lot of western and N west IA are still very dry.  You would think the market would wakeup to this.  

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,148
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk August 2

Wind,

 

Based on what you are saying, and sorry that you didn't get the needed rain, the yield estimates I posted may be a bit high, huh?

 

Mike

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,148
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk August 2

ECIN,

 

Up early to get all of you edgeuhkated on this market. Oh, and the boys are up too? Funny how that happens, early post and early rising babies. You know what's going on. You're pretty intiuitive, ECIN.

 

Mike

Advisor
time:thetippingpoint
Posts: 561
Registered: ‎05-20-2010
0

Re: Floor Talk August 2

EC...look to the north, big clouds, you better move up your tee time to 9am to beat the flood.

 

Mike, everyone should read the fine print in the lower left. Kind of a worthless piece of paper with those 3 ASSumptions. Just based on planting date alone, forgetting bean don't like it cold, or dry, which is IA/MN fate this year it seems, just on planting date there is no way IA beans can average 46, jmo. IA should be close to a normal MN bean yield which is around 38 I would guess.

 

The eastern belt numbers might be low, just depends on if we get perfect weather to finish or not. Could easily be 10 bu high on both crops if we don't get average August rain. Back to those 3 ASSumptions. :-)

 

Great to get big numbers into the trade early though. Assures a great return to storage into January. :-)

 

 

 

Senior Advisor
ECIN
Posts: 2,046
Registered: ‎10-17-2012
0

Re: Floor Talk August 2

Boy what a change from last year !

 

 

2012 -- OH 123 bpa -- Guess for 2013 -  178

2012 -  IN - 99   bpa ---                 2013 -- 178

2012    IL  -- 105 bpa ---------       2013 --  175

2012   MO    75 bpa ----------       2013 --- 131 ?  dry weather

2012   KS     96 bpa   ----------     2013 ---  125

2012   NE    142 bpa                   2013 -- 163

2012  SD    101 bpa - -               2013 --- 143

2012  MI      133bpa                    2013 --- 150

2012  WI     121 bpa                   2013 ---  150

2012  IA      137 bpa                   2013  ---  164 ! ? I was   thinking closer to 150 -155 - but it's Iowa ! right ?

2012 MN    165 bpa                    2013 ---    159 -  if it don't frost -- yes

 

 

There is really two corn belts this year - one East of the river and the other West of the river - Would like to see wht the Sothern states are -- good friend called the other day - shelling corn in SE GA. -only making plus 200 bpa !

 

What is it they say ?? A small crop will get smaller and a big crop will only get bigger ? I think thats what were seeing here .

 

have a great day !

 

Ken

 

Veteran Advisor
roarintiger1
Posts: 1,583
Registered: ‎04-29-2011

Re: Floor Talk August 2

time,    Not all bad news here   1. Give the end users an opportunity to get coverage.    2. Get the prices low enough and insurance will kick in.   3. Farmers store the crops and get rewarded when the traders realized they've been duped with the high yield guesses.  4. With prices lower, demand comes back with a flurry.  5. SA plants fewer acres....which leaves the US a larger world market share.  All in all, this may turn out better than most bears or bulls are predicting........:smileywink:

"Failing to prepare is preparing to fail." "Success happens when preparation meets opportunity"
Senior Advisor
ECIN
Posts: 2,046
Registered: ‎10-17-2012
0

Re: Floor Talk August 2

East Central IN could REALLY use a rain - I'm afraid we may have lost some of the top - but did get 6 tenths last Sat. morning - a billion dollar rain for here -- 178 bpa ? I think with some rain this weekend it could still be cose to that .

 

Come on Time and don't hog all the rain ! - lol

 

BTW -- Warm weather is on it's way ! The Indiana State Fair starts today !

Senior Contributor
dairyfarmmn
Posts: 191
Registered: ‎07-31-2013
0

Re: Floor Talk August 2

MN could do 159. Keep in mind the PP acres aren't even counted. And looking at crop progress we are now right on the 5 yr avg., everyone remembers the past couple of years. But this crop is catching up.