08-20-2012 06:45 AM - last edited on 08-20-2012 03:55 PM by Jeff_a_Caldwell
After the close:
The USDA Crop Progress Report left the corn crop rating unchanged and upped the soybean rating slightly.
The good/excellent rating for corn was unchanged, again this week, at 23% good/excellent, compared to 57% last year. Minnesota and Iowa ratings fell 1%.
The soybean good/excellent ratings improving by 1% (to 31%) this week, vs. 59% last year.
At the close:
The Dec. futures corn contract closed 16 1/2 cents higher at $8.23 3/4. The Nov. soybean contract closed 37 3/4 cents higher at $16.83 1/2. Dec. wheat futures finished 8 1/4 cents higher at $9.02 3/4 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract closed $0.79 higher at $54.53.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.32 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 11 points lower.
The Dec. futures corn contract is trading 12 cents higher at $8.19 1/4. The Nov. soybean contract is trading 26 1/2 cents higher at $16.72 1/4. Dec. wheat futures are trading 4 cents higher at $8.98 1/2 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract opened $0.41 higher at $54.15. The Dec. soymeal futures contract is trading $8.90 per short ton higher at $508.80.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.05 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 9 points lower.
One analyst says that findings of lower-than-expected yields are boosting today's market.
"None of the news is a shock, but to have crop tour information tweeted to the world is bringing some new buying. There is some demand talk, but basis seems soft to me. So, I am not sure how good the demand is. Some talk of a cyclone headed towards China. But, to me, it looks like it will to stay out to sea. So, lots of things showing and very little selling pressure showing," he says.
At the open:
The Dec. futures corn contract is trading 4 cents higher at $8.11. The Nov. soybean contract is trading 11 cents higher at $16.56. Dec. wheat futures are trading 3 3/4 cents lower at $8.90 3/4 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract opened $0.13 higher at $53.87. The Oct. soymeal futures contract opened $4.10 per short ton higher at $504.00.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.17 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 40 points lower.
--USDA announces Monday that Mexico bought 120,000 mt of U.S. corn.
--China's August soybean impots are estimated at 4.5 million tons vs. 5.87 mt in July.
--China's second-half of the year soybean imports expecetd to be 25.5 mt vs. 29.05 million tons, a Chinese agency reports.
--Word is that the UK's wheat crop is in poor condition.
--Read in Crop Talk about Too dry to Fall apply?.
Early calls: Corn 5-7 cents higher, soybeans 10-12 cents higher, and wheat 2-4 cents higher.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.
Crude Oil=$0.23 per barrel higher.
Wall Street=Seen opening flat.
World=Asia/Pacific mixed, European stocks are mostly lower.
More in a minute,
08-20-2012 07:22 AM
Good morning Mike, The markets appear to be range-bound for the time being. What do you or your trader friends think will break us out higher? We are getting more and more yield reports from the corn everyday, with not very good results. Here in Ohio, the recent rains have stabilized the corn and helped the soybeans. However, there are more and more corn stalks falling over every day. Perhaps our windstorm from late June did more stalk damage than we thought.
08-20-2012 07:27 AM
Just as I thought, the combine monitors are starting to talk. Yields are coming in way below expectations. Green arrows for Monday's market. You haven't seen anything yet, regarding a yield monitor rally.
08-20-2012 07:35 AM
I thought we had a bumper crop coming............
shock and aw when the windshield tours become yield monitor tours............
that said.........the bigger question is..........whos going to buy $9 corn............and for how long...........
08-20-2012 07:40 AM
Well, if nobody buys at $9, who is gonna buy at $10?
I think there will be buyers at $9. But I believe they will still be buying hand to mouth. Unless of course, they absolutely know the price is going to $10. Then, they may be buying at $9 in a big way. There are folks that still NEED the corn.
08-20-2012 07:45 AM - edited 08-20-2012 07:54 AM
honestly............not sure we get to $9 for very long...........we gotta get past $8.50 first.........
what I am looking at is demand at this point..........supply is almost baked in my mind.........
exports have all but stopped..............ethanol is grinding, but has backed off a few 100M.............feed is going to come off some because of liquidation and ration replacement............also keep in mind this junk corn that was chopped for silage that normally would have been for grain is going to add to the feed supply.......likely adding more energy to the balance sheet than 10 bushel corn would have..........I dont know what the conversion is, but have to think that 10 bushel corn that was chopped for silage will act more like 50-80 bushel corn.........thus it skews things in a way that can not be captured on the S/D relationship..........
SO until we print a 9B crop...........I have to wonder just how high corn can go.........not sure USDA does that till Jan.........if at all.........
Think about this also.........last year many end users bought or had hedged $4, $5, $6 corn for a good part of the year.........then they had to buy some $7 and $8 corn late before it pulled back off..............however this year, unless they got in on some of this $5 corn in a big way they are and have been looking at $7 and $8 corn for awhile...........and there are no signs of it backing off..........
its a totally different scenerio.............they can absorb a shock of $9.............but its not sustainable.............they will not buy $9 corn for the next 6 months............too much too quick..........
also, things are so bad in MO that cattle herds are being liquidated because pastures have been dead for months, ponds are going dry..........guys are keeping the bare minimum to survive..........there are reports of hay being stolen..........this will ultimately lower feed demand............
08-20-2012 08:49 AM
Is it possible of having a 100 bushel average corn yield this year? In my opinion its YES. The only reason corn well go to 9 or higher is to cut off ALL exports. Since We need ethanol for fuel. and domestic use. There is still demand for meat. People still like hamburger.
Beef will go up following supplies.
08-20-2012 09:37 AM
roarintiger1, I drove 68 from wilmington to findlay and 75 0n to pulltown usa this weekend,seen some good fields and the next one would be a bad one, could notice the lack of rain heading north, I know thats not a huge crop tour but could see the changes with each mile.
08-20-2012 10:06 AM
Mizzou, you vastly underestimate how stupid some of the hog and cattle people are. I bet somebody already is slobbering how they can get at his money, They will not quit. You said the supply is not there. Read the hog commentary this morning, every one says the same thing. When the big boys quit then something will change. It has not happened. Until the quit, we will see an upward price movement. BTW, corn in China is close to 11.00 and 12.00 bucks according to the commentary.