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Veteran Contributor
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Registered: ‎09-09-2014
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Floor Talk August 23

[ Edited ]

At the close:

At the close, the Sept. corn futures finished 4¢ lower at $3.42, while December futures finished 4 1/4¢ lower at $3.55 3/4. Nov. soybean futures settled 1/2¢ higher at $9.38, Jan. soybean futures closed 1¢ higher at $9.46 3/4. September wheat futures ended 1 1/2¢ higher at $4.30. Dec. soy meal futures closed $2.20 per short ton lower at $296.50. Dec. soy oil futures closed $0.64 higher at 35.06¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.57 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 68 points lower.

 

Alan Brugler, President Brugler Marketing & Management LLC, says that the markets are not stuck. 
“Instead, it’s a matter of corn and wheat just plain going down, trying to find demand and discourage South American production ahead of planting (Brazil starts next month),” Brugler says.

 

Burglar adds, “Beans have been getting a little rally, as the FJ tour is showing lower pod counts than usual.”

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

At mid-session, the Sept. corn futures are 1 3/4¢ lower at $3.44, while December futures are 2¢ lower at $3.58. Nov. soybean futures are 1¢ higher at $9.34, Jan. soybean futures are 3/4¢ higher at $9.36. September wheat futures are 2 3/4¢ higher at $4.31. Dec. soy meal futures are $2.70 per short ton lower at $296.00. Dec. soy oil futures are $0.55 higher at 34.97¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.52 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 46 points lower.

 

Pete Meyer, SPGlobal senior grain analyst, says that this week’s crop tour is not moving the market,  because scouts are not finding any real clear story.
“There’s no story here,” Meyer says. The USDA has built in 169.5 bushels per acre for the national U.S. corn yield and 49.5 bu./acre for soybeans and this tour isn’t finding anything definitive against those estimates.”
Meyer, a tour scout on the eastern leg of the Farm Journal tour, says that the variability in crops from one field to the next is quite evident.
“Yes corn ear counts are down in Ohio and Indiana, but not as much as first thought. Plus, one crappy field is followed by a good one.”
So, the market is not finding anything substantial to trade from the tour results, as of yet.
“There’s a lot of talk about scouts finding Nebraska soybean pod counts down by 100 compared with a year ago. And we’re seeing poor soybean pod counts in Illinois. But, the low pod count story has not resonated with the trade,” Meyer says.

 

Mike

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At 10am:

If you missed it, a large soybean sale cancellation was announced Wednesday.

 

Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture the follow activity:

--Cancellations of export sales of 640,970 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2016/2017 marketing year; and

--Export sales of 295,220 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations. Of the total 11,220 metric tons is for delivery during the 2016/2017 marketing year and 284,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2017/2018 marketing year.

The marketing year for soybeans began Sept. 1.

 

Mike

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At 9:15am:

In early trading , the Sept. corn futures are 1/4¢ lower at $3.45, while December futures are 1/4¢ lower at $3.59. Nov. soybean futures are 1/2¢ higher at $9.38, Jan. soybean futures are 1 1/4¢ higher at $9.47. September wheat futures are unchanged at $4.29. Dec. soy meal futures are $1.80 per short ton lower at $296.90. Dec. soy oil futures are $0.52 higher at 34.94¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.06 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 78 points lower.

 

Mike

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Soybeans were higher in overnight trading as the dollar weakens and investors seek bargains at these low levels. Soybeans are now well under $9.50 a bushel, which brings in a lot of people seeking haven investments. On top of that, the dollar is down 0.3% this morning and is still hovering near the lowest level since January 2015, which boosts prospects for demand. Beans are up about 5 cents, corn was unchanged and wheat was up 1-2 cents. The crop tour found yields in Nebraska and Indiana were good, but not great, and likely will be down from last year in both states. Nebraska's football team is better so I'll give the win to the Cornhuskers. In weather news, it looks mostly sunny and clear this afternoon for crop scouts in Iowa and Illinois. Temperatures this morning will start in the 50s and slide up to near 80 this afternoon on what looks to be a beautiful late-summer day. Get all the details in today's 3 Big Things at http://www.agriculture.com/news/three-big-things/3-big-things-today-august-23.

 

Here's what happened overnight:

 

Brent Crude Oil = down 0.3%

West Texas Intermediate = down 0.6%

Dollar = down 0.3%.

Wall Street = U.S. stock futures lower in pre-market trading.

World Markets = Global stocks decline on geopolitical risks.

Honored Advisor
Posts: 14,901
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: Floor Talk August 23

Maybe a weaker Dollar and the ensuing inflation conscience investors is the only leg left on the broken 3 legged stool that holds prices up just below breakevens.  Regardless, any ol` port in a storm.

Senior Contributor
Posts: 294
Registered: ‎08-02-2012
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Re: Floor Talk August 23

Break even maybe at 4$ and 200* bu. 169 at 3.19 with our local basis already is far from break even.
Esteemed Advisor
Posts: 2,468
Registered: ‎04-29-2011

Re: Floor Talk August 23

A quote from above......."one crappy field is followed by a good one" .  This is from Ohio and Indiana.  This means that no better than 50% would be labeled as good.    Hard to believe USDA's 169 .

 

These pre-harvest USDA guesses offend me.  We should protest until they stop them.   Smiley Wink

Highlighted
Contributor
Posts: 22
Registered: ‎05-18-2010
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Re: Floor Talk August 23

That made me scratch my head too. Anybody that farms knows it takes uniformity and consistency to have near record yields. I'm still a little skeptical of the yield numbers given the variability in this crop. I'm still going with low 160's for my guess.
Contributor
Posts: 21
Registered: ‎05-17-2010
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Re: Floor Talk August 23

“Instead, it’s a matter of corn and wheat just plain going down, trying to find demand and discourage South American production ahead of planting (Brazil starts next month),” Brugler says.

So the market is being manipulated down to discourage SA production!?!?

Honored Advisor
Posts: 14,901
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: Floor Talk August 23

Wait a tick, you mean USDA is really on our sides by driving prices down so SA plants less?    Very clever, so when`s it going up to breakeven so I can sell?   Smiley Happy

Veteran Advisor
Posts: 2,774
Registered: ‎02-11-2013
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Re: Floor Talk August 23

Yet another job for special prosecutor.............now even Sonny is in trouble !!!!

 

when he will either quit or be fired ?