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Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,056
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Floor Talk August 26

[ Edited ]

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At the close:

The Sep. corn futures settled 20 cents higher at $5.15 per bushel. The Dec. corn futures contract closed 30 cents higher at $5.00. The Sep. soybean futures contract finished 62 cents higher at $14.21, new-crop Nov. soybeans settled 61 cents higher at $13.89. Dec. wheat futures finished 20 cents higher at $6.66 per bushel. The Dec. soymeal futures closed $17.20 per short ton higher at $436.70. The Dec. soyoil futures settled $1.88 higher at $44.88. 


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.04 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 20 points higher.

 

One analyst sums up the day's explosive trade like this: "Concern grows this morning that the heat forecast for the next 10 days will not make it easy for the developing soybean crop.  Pro Farmer’s Friday announcement of a 3.158 billion bushel crop built on an average yield of 41.8 bpa has helped to spark this concern.  Of course, one must also remember that the Funds have a relatively small long soybean position relative to what they can normally carry.  Corn and wheat are along for the ride on this move.  Fund positions in those crops will also cause potential upticks if there is any movement to liquidate short positions north of $5.00 in December.  Given the still large expectation of corn output, these positions will be much more guarded as we look beyond this round of weather.  Bear in mind that the realization of weather and the forecast for weather are given nearly equal weight in such a time as this.  Any changes to the forecast will quickly cause traders to change their approach to the market."

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

The Sep. corn futures are 18 cents higher at $5.13 per bushel. The Dec. corn futures contract is trading 28 cents higher at $4.98. The Sep. soybean futures contract is trading 59 cents higher at $14.25, new-crop Nov. soybeans are trading 58 cents higher at $13.86. Dec. wheat futures are trading 24 cents higher at $6.70 per bushel. The Dec. soymeal futures are trading $14.80 per short ton higher at $434.30. The Dec. soyoil futures are trading $2.08 higher at $45.08. 


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.04 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 30points higher.

 

One analyst says, "This is a weather rally, all weather moving things higher today.  Big buying by funds and shorts getting pushed out of the market.  Funds are buying corn too, to get out and some wheat too.  But this is pure weather and big time spec buying. The rally may be supported by end-user buying, although my buy-side is quiet, so far today, on the commercial side."

 

Mike

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CME NOTE: On Friday (8/23), the September 2013 Soybean Meal futures contract closed at limit bid on the trading floor but not on Globex – though it didn’t settle at limit. As the September 2013 contract is the last expiration in the crop year, limit bid in this contract at the close can by itself expand limits. As a result, daily price limits were expanded to $30 per short ton for today’s trade date (8/26), which includes last night’s session, from the usual $20 per short ton.

 

Mike

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At 10am:

Corn is up 17 & 25¢, for old & new crop contracts respectively. The range is not that great, with prices hovering about where the market opened. For soybeans, old & new crop contracts are up 60¢, off the high of the old-crop high at $14.33 and the day's high for new crop of $13.94.

 

Mike

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In early trading:

The Sep. corn futures are 15 cents higher at $5.11 per bushel. The Dec. corn futures contract is trading 25 cents higher at $4.95. The Sep. soybean futures contract is trading 56 cents higher at $14.21, new-crop Nov. soybeans are trading 59 cents higher at $13.87. Dec. wheat futures are trading 18 cents higher at $6.64 per bushel. The De. soymeal futures are trading $19.50 per short ton higher at $439.00. The Dec. soyoil futures are trading $1.50 higher at $44.50. 


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.05 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 8 points higher.

 

Mike

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At 6:30am:
Early calls: Corn is seen 16-18 cents higher (old-crop), soybeans 40-50 cents higher (old-crop), and wheat 10-12 cents higher. Meanwhile, new-crop corn 18-20 cents higher and soybeans are seen 45-50 cents higher.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading sharply higher.
Crude Oil=$0.05 per barrel higher.
Dollar=Higher.
Wall Street=Seen lower, as investors await more signs of Fed 'tapering'.

World Markets=Asia/Pacific stocks were higher, Europe stocks lower.

 

WOW! What a number the hot/dry weather has done on the soybean market. Are you a seller into this huge rally?


More in a minute,

 

Mike

Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,056
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk August 26

Marketwatchers have their finger on the 'sell' button, as a hot/dry extended weather forecast sends prices higher. The 'action' alerts will be flying through cyberspace and through the cell phone frequencies today. Maybe you have already received one? Dec. corn just needs to put on 10¢ to reach $5, can it do it? WOW! This could be a very interesting 10-days, coming up, for these markets!!

 

Mike

Senior Contributor
farmerguy89
Posts: 978
Registered: ‎06-30-2012
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Re: Floor Talk August 26

Nuts. We hit 14 overnIvht but for crazy this morning. W this momentum 15 is close by... It won't stoP raining here... It's like I just hit the jackpot!!
Senior Contributor
Wind
Posts: 313
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: Floor Talk August 26

Mike, it's "Katie bar the door" time. No, I am not a seller. It seems this hot spell is deep and long and caught most of us off guard.  I'm not trying to be a "rebel rouser" but this hot spell is going to trim yields big time here in Iowa especially the beans.  

 

 

Senior Contributor
Canuck_2
Posts: 3,904
Registered: ‎05-10-2010
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Re: Floor Talk August 26

We missed those showers.

Went north and east of us.

Really could use some rain.

Early soys are turning yellow, later beans are turning up those pale green undersides.

 

Corn is firing up and we will be losing some yield in both crops.

Still looking like good yields but would be better with some rain now and not when we want to harvest.

Knowledge is knowing a tomato is a fruit.
Wisdom is knowing not to put it in a fruit salad.
Veteran Advisor
BA Deere
Posts: 7,984
Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: Floor Talk August 26

NCIA`s forecast is +90º and no rain for a week.  I don`t think anyone was comfortable enough to to have sold much if any ahead, given our challenging planting. Now the `dome of doom` is bailing the bulls out, I say let it ride and sell when you need the money. This late, short rooted crop is really starting to hurt, physical bushels are really going to be a premium.   This "paper bushel" trading/stealing that we`ve had has just been nonsense.     JM2¢

Senior Contributor
farmerguy89
Posts: 978
Registered: ‎06-30-2012
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Re: Floor Talk August 26

Canuck, it came from the north for sure. And early... We did get some funny couloirs here... So far an inch. It's overtop of us for the entire day..

Woulda thought you would have gotten it... 1-2 hrs. North I think it has been heavier rainfall amounts..
Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 3,671
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
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Re: Floor Talk August 26

[ Edited ]

yea let's just belly up to the counter and all sell trend line yield #'s this morning.

 

Nothing like selling it before planting or at least before you have a clue what harvest will bring.

 

The Eastern guys were going to raise enough to make us center of the grain belt losses irreverent. 

 

All these new genetics make mother nature a non issue, right?

 

 

Give me a break...

60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."
Community Manager
marketeye
Posts: 3,056
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Re: Floor Talk August 26

Hobbyfarmer,

 

Al Gore cannot take credit for this. I know the 'dog days' of summer are suppose to last from July 3-Aug. 11, but it seems like those 'days' have been extended this year. Maybe Elwynn Taylor can take credit, but not Gore. This is not global warming. It's just August. You can bet this Friday night's high school football game will be canceled, if this extreme heat holds up.

 

Mike

Esteemed Advisor
Hobbyfarmer
Posts: 3,671
Registered: ‎01-10-2012
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Re: Floor Talk August 26

Who said anything about the guppy or global warming?

60% of the time, it works every time.

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of dung by the clean end."