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08-27-2012 06:59 AM - edited 08-27-2012 02:26 PM
At the close:
The Dec. futures corn contract closed 7 3/4 cents lower at $8.00 3/4. The Nov. soybean contract settled 12 3/4 cents lower at $17.18 3/4. Dec. wheat futures settled 7 3/4 cents lower at $8.81 3/4 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract ended $0.34 lower at $56.56. The Dec. soymeal futures contract finished $4.10 per short ton lower at $518.70.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.61 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 17 points lower.
The Dec. futures corn contract is trading 1 3/4 cents lower at $8.06. The Nov. soybean contract is trading 12 3/4 cents lower at $17.18 3/4. Dec. wheat futures are trading 3 3/4 cents lower at $8.84 3/4 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.22 lower at $56.48. The Dec. soymeal futures contract is trading $5.20 per short ton lower at $517.60.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.33 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 2 points higher.
One analyst sees today's market as very says the market action is very up and down.
"The overnight trade was higher on the weaker yield estimates and some ideas that the U.S. Stock market might move higher today. Not sure if the rains in the Midwest this weekend are helping all that much, but they could be hurting the beans price action either way," he says.
A lot of people are saying we will not have a lot of bullish news now until the next USDA estimates. And, no demand news to speak of, he says.
Egypt bought from Russia and Romania and not U.S., while there was nothing reported to corn or beans. I
"The market is chopping around with no real direction. It's trying to grab here and maybe we start to work higher again," he says.
Tom White, FuturesRoad.net and CME Group floor corn pit trader says this from his techincal perspective:
"After trading higher in the early part of the week, the market turned lower. We closed slightly lower on the week and slightly below the bottom line on a wedge pattern. This close was not convincing enough to make a bearish intermediate-term argument. There is a pitchfork pattern which we will monitor- if it plays out, it will help to move the market lower and kick in the more bearish wedge pattern. But the counter argument which could still prevail is that RSI is not making lower lows and that positive reversals will keep the market bullish for another big move up at some point in the coming month(s). Wave patterns would also appear to indicate that the market will eventually need a fifth wave higher. In actuality, these patterns might not be inconsistent in that we could continue to make another short-term or intermediate move lower before getting the fifth wave higher.
In summary, the market is at an inflection point particularly as it relates to upcoming trade for this week. We generally remain bullish from a “longer-term” standpoint but are neutral for this week. If the wedge pattern does kick in during this week, we will monitor to determine the impact on the longer-term bullish potentiality."
In early trading:
The Dec. futures corn contract is trading 3/4 of a cent lower at $8.07. The Nov. soybean contract is trading 7 1/2 cents higher at $17.39. Dec. wheat futures are trading 3 1/4 cents lower at $8.85 3/4 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.21 higher at $57.11. The Dec. soymeal futures contract is trading $1.70 per short ton higher at $524.50.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.26 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 25 points lower.
AgResource wrote the following in its daily wire to customers:
"The market is likely to rally post Labor Day based on the trade's fear of a bullish September NASS crop report. Who wants to be short amid the fear of a still smaller 2012 US corn and soybean crop estimate?"
Separately, the CFTC Reeport Friday showed spec funds still getting 'long' corn and soybeans.
What say you?
Early calls: Corn 1-2 cents higher, soybeans 10-12 cents higher, and wheat 2-4 cents lower.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mostly higher.
Crude Oil=$0.88 per barrel higher.
Wall Street=Seen opening higher, ahead of this week's speeches from Fed Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and the European Central Bank's president at the world summit in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
World=Asia/Pacific stocks are lower, Europe's stocks are higher.
More in a minute,
08-27-2012 07:09 AM - edited 08-27-2012 07:23 AM
Questions for the market loom?
--Will the USDA improve its ratings for the U.S. corn and soybean crops, this afternoon?
--Will export sales show up this week? Or, is demand destruction underway?
--Egypt bought Russian wheat, over the weekend.
--How much rain will Hurricane Isaac dump on the Delta soybeans and the eastern Corn Belt? Who wins and loses in that situation? At least the Missouri River could benefit from the rains.
--How much did the weekend rains help improve these crops?
Here's the latest from the Freese-Notis Weather Radar, this morning:
Surely this stuff is hitting the ground and doing some good?
08-27-2012 07:44 AM
The corn crop ratings should stay the same. Its over for that crop. the soybeans are starting to turn here some fields. The ratings maybe improve a little on that side. We got an 1 of rain over the weekend. glad we got it but it only soaked into the dust 2 inches, dry, dry, dry underneath that. How much it will help the bean crop is yet to be seen. Would have liked to have gotten enough rain to get another cutting of hay, but I'm not for sure it was enough for that.
08-27-2012 07:59 AM
on the way..........
getting tired of these mid 90's..............
that hurricane will do more harm than good to the current crop..........might help recharge some things for next year.........
Mike...........2012 RIP man...........its over..........start getting us updates of SA precip situation..........I hear they are dry going into planting again...........thats our next objective, figure out what that crop looks like and when it starts to impact our markets..........
and hope we recharge our profile this fall and winter...........or next year.........well one day at a time........
08-27-2012 08:08 AM
One item not being discussed, world grain supplies. I feel this will become very important in the future. Will Russia stop exports? What are available world supplies to export? How will the world ration the grain? Appears the bull will keep running after US harvest is done.
08-27-2012 08:17 AM
MT: what is your address? I'm starting a Rose colored glasses factory and I'm thinking you need a complementary pair. Being a seed salesman and all I figure you will be a great customer in the future as these things will make your seed appear so much better than the competitions.
That's the neatest thing about these new style of Rose colored spectackulars, they are custom engineered just to work on one particular brand of seed. Make sure you specify the brand that needs to be looked at with this revolutionary technology
Of course you realize what is going to happen if your future orders are not quite large enough to keep the elves here in South Podunk Enterprises fully busy? I'm thinking this is going to work out as my retirement plan funding as Dow, Dupont,
Sygenta, Maybe even Monsatin will surely one of them buy me and my Patent pending discovery just to keep exclusive rights to their unique properties to themselves and for their customer base.
08-27-2012 08:36 AM
got the wrong guy hobby......????.....not sure what you were shooting for..........
and really, with my sandpaper approach............do you really think I could sell anything besides a bottle of water in the desert..........and I would probably tick that guy off too............
I will take a pair of those glasses though...........might add some color to the landscape..........
08-27-2012 09:12 AM
I was reading about south american crop, next year for us. What happens IF there is a hiccup in south american, and another below trend line yield next year here in US??
and will the USDA throw this year out for trend line yields? if they thought 2011 was bad. i would love to have that crop back this year.