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08-29-2013 06:43 AM - edited 08-29-2013 02:01 PM
At the close:
The Sep. corn futures closed 7 cents lower at $4.97 per bushel. The Dec. corn futures contract finished 1 cent higher at $4.81. The Sep. soybean futures contract closed 3 cents lower at $14.30, new-crop Nov. soybeans ended 4 cents lower at $13.68. Dec. wheat futures finished 5 cents lower at $6.54 per bushel. The Dec. soymeal futures settled $0.80per short ton higher at $430.10. The Dec. soyoil futures settled $0.58 lower at $44.20.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.44 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 47 points higher.
The Sep. corn futures are 4 cents lower at $5.00 per bushel. The Dec. corn futures contract is trading 3 cents lower at $4.78. The Sep. soybean futures contract is trading 16 cents higher at $14.49, new-crop Nov. soybeans are trading 6 cents higher at $13.78. Dec. wheat futures are trading 7 cents lower at $6.52 per bushel. The Dec. soymeal futures are trading $6.50per short ton higher at $435.80. The Dec. soyoil futures are trading $0.77 lower at $44.01.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.96 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 69 points higher.
At the open:
The Sep. corn futures are 5 cents lower at $4.99 per bushel. The Dec. corn futures contract is trading 1 cent lower at $4.80. The Sep. soybean futures contract is trading unchanged at $14.33, new-crop Nov. soybeans are trading 1 cent higher at $13.73. Dec. wheat futures are trading 1 cent lower at $6.58 per bushel. The Dec. soymeal futures are trading $3.30 per short ton higher at $432.50. The Dec. soyoil futures are trading $0.48 lower at $44.30.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.90 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 29 points lower.
With the U.S. Dollar strengthening, U.S. grain exports could be feeling the pain. Today alone, Taiwan bought Brazilian corn, Egypt bought Black Sea wheat vs. U.S. products. However, S. Korea buyer picked up some U.S. wheat.
USDA releases lackluster Weekly Export Sales:
Corn= 658,800 metric tons vs. the trade's expectations of between 325,000-675,000 metric tons
Soybeans= 865,500 mt vs. the trade's expectations of between 600,000-1,100,000 metric tons
Soybean meal= 210,000 mt. vs. the trade's expectations of between 125,000-325,000 metric tons
Wheat= 551,300 mt. vs. the trade's expectations of between 400,000-600,000 metric tons.
Early calls: Corn is seen 1-2 cents lower (old-crop), soybeans 4-5 cents lower (old-crop), and wheat 1-2 cents lower. Meanwhile, new-crop corn 1-2 cents lower and soybeans are seen 2-4 cents lower.
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading lower.
Crude Oil=$0.74 per barrel lower.
Wall Street=Seen higher, as Syria strike talk softens and the market awaits U.S. GDP data.
World Markets=Asia/Pacific stocks were higher, Europe stocks higher.
More in a minute,
08-29-2013 09:54 AM - edited 08-29-2013 09:56 AM
They just want to ignore the "funnymentals".
What may be lackluster is the total bushels of corn and soybeans we produce in the US this year.
08-29-2013 09:58 AM - edited 08-29-2013 11:15 AM
Here is the perspective from a floor trader, regarding exports and today's trade:
"Sales were ok but stuffing corn sales into usual suspects Mexico Japan."
On the market, "This is more short covering… capitulation…fearing the condition ratings next Tuesday afternoon… and general write down of bean yields… the trade is 40.8 to 42.1..on yields…stocks to use with yields at 42-43 is 8%...we are too high at that level.. but take 2 bushels of off beans and you approach implied stocks to use close to last year… the comparison with last year's prices, however, begins to fail when we see better stocks in China, larger carry in stocks in Argentina, and the option to switch more acres from corn to bean this winter and next spring. But, a 40 yield would justify 1370-1450 prices for Nov. At 42, we are too high. Corn is middle range price, here, if yields are 150 and we lose 2 million planted acres on Oct report. Then we could be 480-560. Otherwise, we are too high.
08-29-2013 11:17 AM
It looks like this analyst agrees with you on export sales #'s. He says:
"I have sales be better than expected for corn and soybeans using Reuters estimates. Here’s what I find exciting though…
Old crop soybean shipments, what has already been shipped out of the country, total 36,160,353 tonnes. That converts to 1.329 billion bushels. For sales through August 22 we have already beaten USDA’s hopes for a 1.315 billion export. Old crop stocks will tighten down from USDA’s current 125 million bushel estimate.
Though temps will drop sharply you will have many argue that the net drying through next week will remain a concern. We are hearing Tuesday’s Crop Progress report may show a 4% to 5% decline.
We compute new crop yields at 41.0, acreage to fall another 1.0 million, and production at 3.080 billion. That projects a $14.00 Nov bean price.
Overall we have reason to stop rallying for now but no reason for a massive decline yet…"